Any meeting at the highest level during a pandemic becomes a special event and emphasizes the political significance of the moment for bilateral relations. This is fully true for the full-time meeting of Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, appointed at the end of February. However, in addition to the very fact of future communication with the eye on the eye, and not by phone or in online mode, a special excitement around the meeting is associated at least four circumstances.
FirstlyWith the Belarusian political crisis, which February 9 was exactly half a year. Unlike mid-September, when Putin and Lukashenko saw the last time, the heat of political passions in the republic significantly decreased.
At least, if you judge the number and scale of protests: in comparison with thousands of protests, the fall taking place now rare and small shares look like attenuation of the protest movement. The authorities even announced the victory in the internal political confrontation in the recently held All-Belarusian People's Assembly (VNS). Therefore, obviously, Lukashenko will arrive at negotiations in Sochi in a much more raised mood than in September. Moreover, the forecast made by him then was actually justified that a wave of protests followed by the Belarusian events in Russia. This circumstance itself against the background of sanctuction pressure on Moscow and Minsk from the West should close to the allies and level numerous contradictions in their relations.
But in reality, the Belarusian political crisis is difficult to call the completed. Therefore, one way or another, Lukashenko's plans for further concerns will certainly be interested in the Russian side. Moreover, in many questions of the future country, including on the topic of the upcoming constitutional reform, VNS did not give specific answers, but only put a significant dot.
SecondlyWith an already constant topic of deepening integration in the Union State, which parties lead stressful discussions from the end of 2018 according to Belarusian officials, projects of important decisions that may be fastened by the signatures of the heads of states. However, it is unlikely that the meeting will open some qualitatively new stage in the development of bilateral relations. Yet basic contradictions that slowed down the integration processes in previous years are saved. Minsk continues to insist on fully equal economic conditions for its economic entities as the first step towards greater integration and invites not to forcing institutional integration, which Lukashenko accentuated declared at VNS. Moscow would like to change the procedure: initially deepening institutional integration, and then equal conditions.
ThirdlyOn the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, several conceptual statements about the future of the Belarusian foreign policy were made. In particular, the idea of refusing the provisions enshrined in the current preposition to neutrality was sounded. It was also proposed to adjust the strategy of foreign economic diversification and thereby recognize the normality of the fact that Russia accounts for the lion's share of Belarusian exports. In fact, none of these potential innovations changes, especially in the conditions of the political crisis in relations with the EU and the United States. However, Lukashenko will certainly try to clarify Putin in more detail the essence of new ideas.
FourthThe media reports a high degree of agreement on the allocation of Minsk a new loan. The amount is called $ 3-3.5 billion. Apparently, the summit will really consolidate this decision without much difficulties, as it is not a fully new loan, but on the redirection of a part of the funds from the previously issued loan for the construction of a nuclear power plant. The design estimate as a result was lower than the planned, and the Belarusian leadership would like to use the exempted amount for other purposes.
The author's opinion may not coincide with the position of the VTIMES edition.