Presidents of Russia and Belarus returned to the agenda of the training of "road maps" to deepen integration in the Union State. But following the results of the negotiations, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, that "it would be foolish" to work on creating uniform management bodies of the two countries. Russian ambassador in Belarus Dmitry Mezentseva, "Political integration, rapprochement of Belarus and Russia is the most important factor with which they do not agree in the West." In the article for Eurasia.Expert, the director of the Public Association Center for Studying Foreign Policy and Security, the Researcher of the Institute of History of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Denis Bonkonkin analyzed the obstacles to the development of integration and assessed the prospects for their overcoming.
Integration by pause
At the moment, it can be said that against the background of the political crisis in Belarus, the continuing pandemic in the world and the region, the decline in economic development in almost all countries the issues of integration within the framework of the Allied State have departed to the background for Russia and Belarus. And if autumn 2019 went on an active discussion and coordination of the so-called "Road Maps" of Integration (initially declared 15, by the end of the discussions already 31), since early 2020, all negotiations actually stood on the pause until the Sochi Meeting of the Presidents in February 2021However, it is not very clear in which format and when in-depth integration within the framework of the Allied State will return to the agenda of bilateral relations. It is possible that countries will return to this issue only after the constitutional reform in Belarus and the elections that can change the political landscape of the country and including those with which negotiations will be conducted.
At the same time, for Russia, it is quite logical to wait for the end of the domestic political crisis in the neighboring country, since the conclusion of any agreements in its process will be expected to suit the questions about the legitimacy of decisions and attempts to take advantage of the weak position of the ally from a number of countries applying for the position of the "main conductors of democracy and Human rights. "
But besides problems associated with external circumstances, allied integration has a number of internal subjective and objective obstacles that serve as serious limiters for the further development of union integration. And if the external circumstances change fairly quickly and the neutralization of their negative effects can be based on joint actions of Belarus and Russia, the problems underlying in allacened integration must be considered as issues that will have a negative impact on the Union State regardless of the dynamics of external circumstances.
Subjective obstacles
The internal limiters of effective integration are different types of factors that can be divided into subjective and objective. A subjective obstacle is a rather reverent attitude to issues related to the preservation of sovereignty and independence of each of the states. This question remains relevant for both Belarus, and for Russia, since only 30 years have passed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation became sovereign states and could exclusively dispose of their internal and foreign policy.
The Union State as an integration association naturally limits the sovereignty of each of the countries, since it requires the transfer of its part to the proper level. This problem is especially acute for Belarus
Another obstacle to the subjective order is attracted to the development of integration as a subject of foreign policy bargaining or as an element of ensuring political support within the country.
So, in the fall of 2019, these approaches were manifested particularly clearly during the discussion of integration cards, where each Party pursued its own interests. The obstacle to the subjective order remains the approach of the leadership of both countries that prefer to decide the acute issues at the bilateral level without the active involvement of the institutions of the Union State.
Objective obstacles
An objective obstacle to integration is different political and economic systems, which are the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.In connection with the existence of various legislation, the share of private and state business and even the overall structure of the economic and political model will predictably be compatible without steps to harmonize the legislation and the development of a number of measures to level the difference between countries.
Also available in both countries the right of veto turns into a double-edged obstacle to integration. On the one hand, the presence of each of the countries of this right guarantees Belarus the ability to control Russia with more dense integration. Without this right, Russia will dominate politically (as an example, plans for the creation of the Union Parliament provided for 75 places for the Russian Federation and only 28 - for the Belarusian side). On such conditions, supranational parliamentary bodies will not be an effective tool for the development of integration and will not receive serious powers and responsibility from the leadership of both countries. The lack of an institutional basis and enshrined common values, which in the case of the EU have become defining integration factors, can serve as serious limiters for the development of the Union State.
conclusions
With all the factors listed in the development of bilateral integration, it will be necessary to cope and look for formulas that meet both countries. At the same time, if overcoming subjective obstacles lies in the plane of the revision of approaches and strategies for allied construction, then objective factors may require the revision of the structure of integration and its endful goals.
At the same time, the general history, similar national interests, a geopolitical situation, as well as the presence of deep bonds at an interpersonal level, can be the material that the SUMPLIES of the Union State for the time of finding a successful formula for its further development.
Denis Bonkin, Researcher of the Institute of History of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Director of Public Association "Center for External Policy and Security"