The head of the regional headquarters of Alexei Navalny Leonid Volkov announced the strategy of headquarters and the Foundation for the fight against corruption at that time, while the politician himself would be in custody. On the Internet, only the part of which is announced instantly, in which there will be no new rallies in the near future. This caused hot spores among supporters: protest merge - or just protect people? Vtimes publishes excerpts from Volkov's speech, from which it is obvious that the context of the situation is somewhat different, and also lead the opinions of oppositionists and experts, whether the political strategy elected to FBK correctly.
Leonid Volkov, Head of Regional Headquarters:
- We are between two lights. On the one hand, hundreds and thousands of people write and say - it is necessary to go out and go to more decisive actions, no peaceful protest can be, they beat us, we must answer. On the other hand, we are criticized for others - why do you go out the second time in a row, it was already clear after the first that everyone arrests that the protest will exhale. And everyone converge in the assessment, but still everything will be like in Belarus: come out, try to fight with riot - you will be present, do not come out - it will be like in Belarus and Putin will remain in power. Such a learned helplessness, which Putin is trying to teach us.
What to do? Which way do we go? We will go different ways.
We basically and forever remain within the framework of a peaceful non-violent protest. We are now climbing at the top of very serious moral superiority. A huge number of people doubting, far from politics have so far, were inspired, frighteners, are morally involved in all this dramatic history about poisoning-returned arrest. Tens of millions of new people are now on our side, it is very important, and we have no right to lose it.
I write in the chat - the peaceful rallies will not lead to anything. What does not lead to anything?! They have already led to the fact that Putin appeared by moral bankrupt in the eyes of tens of millions of people who watched on the air that he was represented by his attack aircraft beat peaceful protesters. Ringings on January 23 and 31 showed that we are much. The peaceful protest and wins - slowly to it are joined by new and new people and Hop - it turns out that we are most, and their minority. You look at today's Levadov ratings - there just a failure. His surroundings will be turned away from him, the security forces will turn away from it, it will be more difficult for him to be given the elections. This is a way that may take several years, but it is in this that our plan is. Alexey Navalny, returning to Russia and when we all discussed it, left quite clear instructions. And the headquarters of Navalny now acts in accordance with this plan.
Peaceful protest is not only rallies! Forms have a huge amount.
We open the second front - foreign policy.
Many compare our protests with Belarusian, but these analogies are not quite correct. Belarusian protests began after the election, we have the same elections - only ahead.
Further if we go out every week - we will receive a thousand more arrested and hundreds of beaten, and the work of the headquarters will be paralyzed, and it will be impossible to work on elections for just so. This is not what we want, this is not what Alexey asks us. Alexey asks us to concentrate on the autumn. We will take it from prison, first of all by foreign policy methods, taking Putin's friends in one place and acting on them through their money, through our sanction list for which the European and American administration is already working, which yes, now understand that Putin is necessary To affect this way, to take it for being valid, and he appreciates the money.
This does not mean that we generally refuse rallies. We will try to spend them, but not every week, we will prepare well and spend something big and spring, and in the summer. We will not go anywhere, they will not have any demands anywhere.
Participate in the "smart voting" in the elections to the State Duma this fall. This is exactly what Alexey Navalny call you now at every opportunity, including Putin ordered the FSB to poison Alexey. These elections are the most important since the time of the presidential campaign of 2018, and we all have a lot of work that you have to start now. For example, to train 200,000 observers.
Ilya Postchenkov, Head of the Center for Development of Regional Policy:
- Continue them now and really little meaning. The opposition mobilized the mass of people, and collect them constantly means leading to burnout (as in Khabarovsk and Minsk), and so they can consulate it before the summer - the start of the election campaign in the State Duma. By that time, the West will determine that they are willing to oppose the "Navalny case", new sanctions or some negotiations with Russia. Now there have already begun some movements, it is possible that they will continue.
In addition, Navalny was preparing to go to jail, which means it should surprise something: a new investigation or some pressure on the Russian authority from the outside. After all, there is some kind of planned dramaturgy: return - landing in prison - what's next? Of course, the youth is disappointed with a folding protest, she wants exacerbations, as in Belarus, so that he has grown by Wishing, more and more people went out and - victory. But what is the victory? It is unlikely in street activity, it must be converted into something, in the same fair elections for example. So it is logical to "rest" before the start of the campaign in the State Duma. And at this time, apparently, some new infoovodes may appear.
Abbas Galymov, political scientist:
- From the point of view of the strategy, the decision is correct. The situation is not yet so revolutionary to start rally every day or every week.
But from the point of view of the form ... The statement seems to me erroneous, the Volkov should have focused on the fact that the FBK would do, and not on what would not be. A detailed story about the strategy until September. It was not necessary to give a reason for the headlines "Volkov said that there would be no rallies."
In Khabarovsk and Belarus, for example, people went out every week. Since people began to go out - it means that the revolutionary situation was. Not revolutionaries withdraw people to the streets. They simply come under this ideological justification. Do not form, and draw up protest. Now, I think people themselves will not come out. So after such beatings began to go out - this is now it must be very serious.
Such headlines and conversations, they say, the protest, it is fundamentally the situation for the FBK will not change, it will worsen the situation only in the sense of emotions in the near future, globally - no.
Alexander Raughty, political analyst:
- After stock 31 [January] and on February 2, I have already predicted that the street protest will go to the decline in terms of its mass and regularity, but the radicalization of action on both sides will increase - both law enforcement officers and those who for a while will continue to go outside. Actually, his statement wolves recognized the obvious. In addition, under threat of defeat and the regional protest infrastructure associated with FBK and its activists: most of them are under administrative arrest.
But the most important thing is that the protests of the last two weeks were not protests precisely for Navalny, contrary to what their audiences are trying to convince both the Genrupaganda and the headquarters of Navalny. Navalny, his movies and events around it are only a short-term occasion and trigger for protests, its emotional impact quickly comes off. And the genuine reason for the protests was the earned all last year in the economically and politically active part of society, irritation in the address of the authorities, the exacerbated perception of its insincerity, some conclusion from the life realities of this narrowing social group, unprepacents to conduct a dialogue with carriers of another point of view and take their choice (in including through legal forms of political participation, through elections - let us recall the demonstrative arrest of the Khabarovsk governor of Sergey Furgal and "zeroing" thus in Moscow of its own political choice of Khabarovchan).
Such irritation in large cities is not going anywhere, but will only increase. Power and its actions on the power field right now, many new displeased people among people are spoken right now for the activists of the "incidental opposition". With its information pole, power will also strengthen this irritation - because Genrupaganda is trying to label everyone dissatisfied as supporters of the Navalny-Inogen. Seeing such a superficial attitude towards himself, the dissatisfied persistent is that power is not ready to consider them as an independent political group.
Further, in spring, summer, this irritation will break through other reasons - in case of some local protests and urban conflicts, resonant criminal cases against leaders not from the political environment, finally, during the parliamentary elections. Because while there are clear signs that the power is ready to conduct elections in hard filtering of candidates (many of the detained activists are falling under the Dadinsk article, which prohibits running) and purely technological support for the specified result, and not a political and ideological struggle for the image of the future . And the team of Navalny, naturally, will try to feed this irritation with its media tools and count on new mistakes of power.
Boris Makarenko, President of the Center for Political Technologies:
- wolves overestimates its own significance. Not wolves organize protests, not for Volkova, people go to protests. The development of protests and the activities of Volkova among themselves have extremely few common. Point.
Nikolay Rybakov, Chairman of the Apple Party:
- Protest is impossible to stop. People after all protest against the incommensibility of power, against lawlessness and resetting the Constitution. Therefore, the desire to protest will grow - they are tired of such an atmosphere in Russia. And in what form will protest, this is another question. The most productive is the September election in the State Duma. In order to appear in the Duma, representing civil society. Power learned how to fight a street protest. But in the election it will lose.
Dmitry Gudkov, Ex-Deputy State Duma:
- I think everything is right. Because you need a passage to people. It seems to me that it has not been so critically a serious mass of people so that now it would be possible to turn the situation. Continue with such a numerical - subject people at risk. This can lead to demoralization, and now the advantage on the parties. People need to digest this palace, to compile, will appear, possibly new investigations. If we talk about protests, they are more likely to pass against the background of specific events, I understand that the headquarters have a plan to step up to the elections to the State Duma.
I feel the condition of people. Many felt power, but need a passion. The continuation of the protests will lead to the fact that all the more or less possible candidates will not reach the election. Yulia Galyamin can no longer participate. Then no game will not be in the elections to the State Duma.
Well, people now need to help. We are all doing this now, lawyers are looking for, pianim wallets "ATS-INFO" and others.