The external background at the opening of Monday trading develops moderately positive. Oil prices are growing after the fall of last week, and moods on world stock markets have improved.
External factorsBidding on the US stock exchanges on Friday was completed without the unified dynamics of the three main indices, which have changed within 1.5%. In the plus it turned out to be the high-tech sector earlier in the week. The S & P 500 indicator for the session sought to see the second goal of a short-term correction of 3,760 points against the background of the growth of the yield of treasury bonds of the United States. Overcoming the specified mark may impose a shift including the medium-term trend, but so far buyers hold power in their hands.
Futures on the S & P 500 index increase about 0.7%. The market begins a week with positive news: the House of Representatives approved the plan to be offered by Biden's plan of the economy in the amount of 1.9 trillion dollars, which will now go to the Senate. In addition, the US Coronavirus Vaccine will begin using Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).
Bidding in Europe on Friday ended with a decrease in the EURO STOXX 50 index by 1.3%, which continued downward correction after the American stock exchanges. This week in the region will evaluate macroeconomic data on the Eurozone and Germany and follow the rates of vaccine spread.
At the auction in Asia in the morning a positive dynamics prevails. Japanese Nikkei 225 added 2.4%. Australian S & P / ASX 200 rose by 1.7%. Chinese indexes increase in 2%. Statistics on business activity in the Sector Services and Industry Industry in February did not meet forecasts, including, including in view of the celebration of the New Year in the lunar calendar, but still the second largest economy of the world continues to grow (the indicators remain above the key mark of 50 points).
Nearest Brent and WTI oil futures in the morning add about 1.5% after falling on Friday. Prices, partially removing short-term overbought, try to win the resistance of $ 65.20 and $ 62.20, respectively. This week, however, we can talk about maintaining the risks of the development of a decline in the area of 62 dollars and $ 59, respectively (the middlebands of the Bollinger of day charts). The most important event of the next days will be a monthly meeting of the OPEC + Monitoring Committee, which is very likely to announce the gradual increase in oil production from April.
Events of the day- Final business entities in the production sector of Europe (11.15-12.30 MSK) and the United States (17.45 Moscow time) in February
- Pre-index of consumer prices in Germany in February (16.00 Moscow time)
- ISM business activity index in the US Production Sector in February (18.00 Moscow time)
- Speech by the head of the ECB Christine Lagard (19.10 Moscow time)
- The results of the rebalancing of the MSCI index will come into force
- Financial results of the Children's World (MCX: DSKY) in IFRS for 2020
- Operational and financial results Inter RAO (MCX: IRAO) in IFRS for 2020
- UNIPRO Board of Directors (MCX: UPRO) by dividend policy
- Beginning of morning trading in the Moscow and St. Petersburg stock exchange
Mosbier and RTS indexes on Friday were noticeably declining and sought to the lower bands of the Bollinger of day charts (3310 and 1380 points, respectively). The latest marks may indicate including the medium-term direction of the market movement, which is still stored ascending. The nearest important resistance for indicators are located in 3405 and 1440 points. Landmark on the Mosbier index for the day: 3290-3410 points.
The ruble on the Mosbier on Friday strengthened within 1% to the dollar and the euro. The dollar pair / ruble, however, remained above the support of 74.40 rubles (the average band of the Bollinger of the Day Graphic), when held which will keep the tendency to move to the area of 75-76 rubles. The euro / ruble pair remains higher than a similar technical indicator (90 rubles), until consuming below which the main risks are inclined towards the movement to 91.50-92 rubles.
At the beginning of the session, Russian stock indices and ruble are likely to come in plus due to the correctional rebound of foreign assets from local lows. Nevertheless, short-term moods are generally shifted towards more negative, in connection with which later at the week, the return to sales of risky assets and the development of downward oil correction in increasing OPEC production is not excluded. On Monday, investors will focus on final business activity indexes in the Industrial Sector of Europe and the United States for February. On Friday, the key report on the US labor market last month will be published.
Elena Kuzhukhova, analyst IR "Veles Capital"
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