The year of the pandemic challenged all political regimes in the world, and all internal events were somehow superimposed on quarantine (mandatory self-insulation). Russia did not exception: the pandemic prevented the mobilization of opponents of amendments to the Constitution and strengthened the pressure on the regions, the report of the Liberal Mission Foundation "Year of Kovida: the preliminary results and challenges of the decade says. Experts predict a further escalation of tension between society and power, however, they believe that civil society has not yet reached the critical point.
The general trendThe struggle against the pandemic and, accordingly, its consequences initially depended on the types of political regime and arising from this economic possibilities. Thus, the countries who have had a wide coercion apparatus have made a bet on the stiffness of quarantine measures, while developed countries with democratic traditions and wide borrowing opportunities accompanied softer restrictions with a wide package of assistance to the population and business. As Professor of the Higher School of Economics, Oleg Viugin, the countries with political regimes that allowed tight control over citizens and business (primarily China), relatively successfully passed the epidemic from the point of view of both the scale of the victims (even taking into account their intentional understatement) and Economic consequences, and therefore are ready to record the experience of the fight against Make Aid to their asset. Democracies could not count on a similar level of coercion and discipline, and therefore for them the fight against the pandemic was a reason for finding new forms of conscious involvement of citizens into the consolidation of national interests on the basis of equality and justice.
The year of Kovid demonstrated much greater sustainability of the economy and the population reaction to economic stress than it could be assumed - even in comparison with the 2008 crisis, the economic protests were few and fleeting. However, in the political sense, the world looks unpredictable, summarized in the "liberal mission": the Black Lives Matter movement with the collapse of the monuments of Columbus, large-scale protests in Belarus, an attempt to poison Alexei Navalny, Karabakh war, the change of power in Kyrgyzstan, the extreme stress of emotions in the presidential election in the US ending with the assault capitol in Washington. "These events are not a consequence of a pandemic, but in the aggregate with it create a feeling of demolition of old orders and high uncertainty of the future," the report says.
RussiaThe Russian authorities actually completed the prospect of the second decade of stagnation, believed in the "liberal mission", drawing attention to how the development goals are postponed: the decree signed in July 2020 not only tolerates the objectives declared at 2024 for 2030, but also adjusts them towards lowering.
As polls show, the attitude towards the amendment about the "zero" split society almost in half. Anticipation of the amendments could not be mobilized not only because of the low organizational potential of the opposition, but also in connection with the effectiveness of repressive methods. As a result, it caused depression among oppositional contingents in the afternoon.
In itself, the voting on the amendments in the conditions of the pandemic was used to expand the practices of falsifications, pressure on the dependent electorate and the further complication of public control over the elections, the political scientist Alexander Kynenev believes.
The desire of the federal center is also noted to shift political responsibility for difficulties with a pandemic to regions. Therefore, regional administrations and Rospotrebnadzor, which, in fact, did not have sufficient resources, no skills, nor office for making effective and timely solutions, were chosen as coordinating struggle with the instance.
RegionsIn such conditions, irritation in the dictates of Moscow is increasing in the regions, and budget injections are no longer able to extinguish it.
Alexander Kynev, political scientist:
- It is unlikely that one or another regional conflict will become a reason for the nationwide crisis, rather regional imbalance may be at some point a resonator of social discontent associated with outsiders in behavior events and agendas.
The Kremlin itself in regional politics remained faithful to the principle of priority to control the objectives of development. Governors were in a situation where they do not have the opportunity to work with their team - for example, in 2020, the coordination of ministers of health and education with federal departments has become obligatory. Back in 2001, the governors took the right to influence the appointment of regional security officials. The administration of the president is coordinated by the vice-governors of domestic politics, the profile departments are also consistent with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry, Rosleshoz.
Alexander Kynev:
- Administrations increasingly cease to be teams and are increasingly a set of poorly related managers, more oriented on the profile Moscow chiefs. In such conditions, the governor becomes just a clerk, but with political responsibility. In this situation, the transfer of additional powers to the control of the pandemic could not lead to an increase in their political weight.
In the "Liberal Mission" summarize that the Kremlin continues the line to deprive their political weight and independence in decision-making. So, the popular Khabarovsky governor Sergey Fourgar was arrested, winning elections in 2018 at the Kremlin's Millennik, the heavy governors of the Belgorod Region Evgeny Savchenko and the Kaluga region Igor Artamonov were resigned.
Alexander Kynev:
- Despite the political and economic risks of their elimination, the Kremlin does not want to endure the governors of figures with their own political capital.
Due to the pandemic in the spring, a series of rotation of the governor's corps was injected, but after amending the constitution, the resignation continued. At the same time, the trend was continued for the appointment by the governors of politicians and officials, who had previously not directly related to the region: in 7 out of 10 cases, the actual "Varyags" became performing the responsibilities of the governor.
Future, elections and protest potentialDespite the fact that elections in 2020 due to the pandemic were curly, they were of great importance on the eve of the federal campaign - 2021, showing a significant disappointment of voters in old parties and a request for updating the political landscape, including personal, refers to the report.
The election results on party lists suggest that in the conditions of a low "United Russia" reserves dominance, but the parliamentary opposition has serious problems, their election campaigns were minor. Even the growth of citizens' discontent is not accompanied by the desire of legal political parties to organize and head. It is significant that in the most massive political protests-2020 in the Khabarovsk Territory, none of the systemic political parties risked publicly join.
If earlier the disappointment in the batch of power led to an increase in votes for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, LDPR and "Fair Russia", now voters prefer to take a chance with new ones, even if unknown parties are "new people", the Russian party of pensioners for justice.
Alexander Kynev:
- To be just new and without anti-tracking during an attractive name and a fairly active campaign, it turns out to be sufficient under the request of voters to new faces.
The total number of protest actions in 2020 was less due to quarantine, but those that were, were brighter and noticeable. The protest in Nenets Committee against the elimination of the district as a subject of the federation (as a result, the approval of the amendments to the Constitution failed to NAO, and the VRIO Arkhangelsk Governor Tsybulsky lost elections on the territory of NAO), Khabarovsk protests in defense of the Furgal (peak gravity in Khabarovsk 50,000 60,000 people in July - August on Saturday shares), protest in Bashkortostan against developments on Shikhan Kushtah (the power was forced to declare Kushta protected zone).
Economic stagnation, "Fatigue from the leader", the protest regionalism and significant changes in the structure of media consumption (the number of people watching TV are reduced to the Internet) - form a serious challenge to the political regime in the beginning decade. In the short term, repressive practices and strengthening political control will restrain the manifestations of the dissatisfaction of citizens, but will strengthen the feeling of social stagnation, expanding the "rejection zone" of the regime in the future, to this conclusion in the "Liberal Mission". The main source of change can be either the pressure of the civil society itself, or the accumulation of internal contradictions within the federal power itself and the increase in the number of erroneous decisions, or both together.