The consequences of climate change will be uneven manifested in the planet. Somewhere the impact will be extremely negative and destructive, but other regions can benefit from warming, the scientists of Princeton University of Jose Luis Cruz and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg are written about the results of their new research.
Somewhere global warming will give an increase in performance by 15%
Scientists with a dynamic integrated appraisal model calculated the economic effects that the lands will bring the heat to different countries. Moreover, for different parts of the planet, they counted not only the consequences of climate change, but also possible answers to them are migration, change of trading chains, improving local technologies, interaction between economies. Previously, these aspects, as well as detailed prediction of climate consequences for different regions, scientists have given little attention, emphasize the authors.Increasing the temperature of the planet for 1 degree Celsius in the hottest places will lead to a deterioration in household conditions by 5%, and performance - by 15%. As a result, welfare in some countries in Africa and Latin America may fall by 10-15%. On the contrary, in the coldest places - Siberia, Canada, Alaska, and so on. - Welfare can grow by as much as 15%, the scientists of Princeton are believed. At the same time, the poorest countries will suffer most, while the richest will be randomly affected.
The study raises a very important problem of the unevenness of the spatial distribution of global climate change effects, comments on the director of the Group of operational risks and sustainable development of KPMG in Russia and the CIS Vladimir Lukin. The investigation of this is a significant difference in the cost of adaptation to climate change in various regions of the planet, as well as effects such as "climate migration", redistribution of global industrial resources and investment flows. Obviously, it must be taken into account when developing regulatory measures to prevent climate change. First of all, it concerns financial instruments such as carbon tax or transboundary carbon regulation mechanism (possibly countries that suffer less should pay more if this money is really used to finance adaptation measures), Lukin argues.
But it is not exactly
However, the authors themselves recognize that the model definitely predicts significant influences (and their negative or positive character) in the territories with an extreme climate, but its scale is less definite. Because of this, it is not possible to finally estimate the impact of climate change on a global scale.
A new study could not take into account all the factors, because any model is simplified. The problem is that only simple linear effects are easily simulated, and more complex and unfavorable - no and therefore do not fall into such models, the director of the practice of services in the field of sustainable development Ey Sergey Daiman says.
Of course, the damage to climate change will be undomained unevenly and here the factors of physical geography are really played - individual regions will suffer from flooding, ocean level growth, critical temperatures, droughts or prolonged precipitation more than others continues. But it is wrong to think that in other regions, positive trends level the growing damage from climate change.
Russia promise new agricultural agricultural
The fact that a number of countries can get benefits from global warming are not written for the first time. "No country is located better than Russia, in order to be able to benefit from global warming," the New York Times wrote earlier, also referring to research. Russia will have a more favorable climate that will allow and attract migrants (first of all from South Asian countries, which will chase the upcoming ocean and terrible heat from the house), and expand the area of agricultural land (while in the USA, Europe and India they will decline ), was stated in the article.For possible positive consequences of climate change, the Russian government in the national plan of adaptation to climate change took:
- reducing energy costs in the heating period;
- Improving the conditions of transportation in the Arctic seas in the Arctic Ocean;
- expanding the zone of crop production, an increase in the efficiency of animal husbandry;
- Increasing the productivity of boreal (that is, the northern unavoidable) forests.
For Russia, there are several winning moments, considers the BCG Expert Partner Konstantin Polunin. First, it is navigating the northern seaside all year round. Secondly, access to minerals, to extract which was not possible before. Thirdly, an increase in the area of cultivated land and the growth of food exports. And fourth, since in Russia about 20% of all world stocks of forests and can be considered forests not as wood, but to evaluate them by the ability to bind carbon oxide, an increase in the assessment of the carbon equivalent of forests can bring Russia substantial income.
Of course, you can find positive effects, says Daiman. For example, energy for the heating of Russia may need less, and on air conditioning - more, but not so much. But there are much greater losses, for example, for energy infrastructure due to the growth of the frequency of sudden drops, transitions through zero, critical temperatures. Even the effectiveness of the TPP with the increase in temperature drops, he notes.
But with natural catastrophes and without hydrocarbon exports
In Russia, the situation is very interesting, says Lukin: there are regions in which the conditions are obviously improving - the duration of the growing season, etc. And there are regions in which new risks and threats associated with climate change arise: for example, melting of permafrost.
Now the world is located on the trajectory, which does not lead to 1.5 degrees, and to 4-5 degrees Celsius warming by the end of the XXI century, reminds Polunin. While all the models suggest that global warming will be unevenly (in the eternal milling zone, it warps on 5-9 degrees) and to be expressed also in an increase in extreme weather phenomena (floods, hurricanes, droughts, fires, etc.). Annual destruction from such phenomena is already estimated at $ 600 billion, and over time $ 1 trillion has been reached. According to estimates of insurance companies, by 2050, with an increase in the ocean level of 0.5 m, a significant negative impact on the 570 cities of the world in the coastal zone may be in Russia, in Russia, it may affect the minimum of St. Petersburg and Vladivostok. On a global scale, warming can lead to additional migration of about 200 million people. All this can reduce the growth of global GDP by 30%, notices half-one.
Natural catastrophes do not bypass Russia. In 2019, from taxes of each working Russian 10,000 rubles. It went to eliminate the consequences of dangerous natural phenomena, calculated the Institute of Global Climate Roshydromet. The annual damage from climate change in Russia is measured by tens of billions of rubles, Lukin resembles. Therefore, given that warming in Russia occurs 2.5 times faster than the average of the world (Roshydromet these), special attention should be paid to the quantitative assessment of climatic risks using the most advanced methodologies and approaches, he believes.
The melting of permafrost will cause damage to the industry and the infrastructure of Russia (according to some estimates, the losses will amount to $ 100 billion by 2050), notes Polunin. When moving to a carbon economy, the demand for oil and oil products by the EU can significantly decrease, according to some estimates - up to 80%. But it is supposed to be a significant increase in food prices, he says.
In agriculture, new territories will appear with favorable average temperatures - but where agriculture cannot be done, soils are not formed, there is no infrastructure, warns Daiman. And in those places where traditionally agriculture was the basis of the economy, there will be a crop loss: desertification, droughts, long-lasting shower and floods.
"Russia will lose," the Director of the Climate and Energy Program and Energy Program of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF Russia) Alexey Kokorin is categorical. There will be less direct impact here than in other countries, but from falling demand for oil, coal and gas - it explains.