When the Mosbier index "flooded" near the mark of 3500 and soon bounced off the pair of dollar-ruble almost mirroble, rising from monthly minima to 73.20 to 74. However, the collapse in the stock market did not happen, only a small correction, quite natural When storming a strong resistance level. As a result, by the end of the week, the nervous situation is maintained: the Mosbier index is suspended in the range of 3400-3500, and the dollar is about 74 rubles, there are almost no dynamics. And no one is sure of which direction the market will go.
It is not necessary to wait for the working pre-holiday Saturday of changes: for the whole world it is a day off, so that the volume of trading on the mosbery will be relatively small. In principle, the next short week may pass in the currently dependent state. Although uncertainty plays against the ruble - the longer it lasts, the more willing to buy currency just in case. So, even if the Mosbier index remains in the current range for another week, the dollar can grow to 74.30-74.50.
In the future, the Correction of the stock index is submitted to the more likely scenario - the last three months it grew very tightly, and pessimistic moods and caution seem to embrace many players. If the correction and turns into something that can be called the collapse, this will not happen immediately. Accordingly, against the background of the stock correction, the dollar can rise to 75-76 rubles, but there it will begin to sell it, without looking at the stock market.
On the next week, the main range of fluctuations for the dollar is 73.70-75.20 (75 will perform the level of resistance and it is unlikely that the dollar will be fixed above). Range on Euro - 89.60-91.
This small derogation of the ruble will not affect the long-term "faded" trend. In the first half of spring, the Russian currency may well rise to 70-72 on the dollar and 86-88 per euro.