Astana. March 4. KazTAG - Over $ 562 billion additional investments may be needed to be in Kazakhstan to answer the introduction of carbon tax throughout the European Union (EU), Prime Minister Askar Mamin said.
"A scenario of deep decarbonization, which takes into account significant measures to include new regulated sectors of the economy in SPT (ejection trading system - KazTAG) and the introduction of carbon tax in Kazakhstan for unregulated economy sectors (will lead to a reduction in GHG emissions (greenhouse gases - KazTAG) to 80% ). The amount of additional investment is preliminary estimated at $ 562.3 billion. These measures will eliminate carbon tax for Kazakhstan products by achieving the level of the carbon price of the EU, "said Mamin, responding to the request of the group of Majilis deputies regarding carbon tax on imports.
Parliamentarians in their request indicated that in order to strengthen incentives to the green economy, taking into account the effects of the Pandemic of the European Union country since 2022, it is planned to introduce carbon import tax.
"It causes our anxiety, since more than half of Kazakhstan exports account for ones in Europe," the Mazhilismen noted on February 3.
They clarified that carbon tax used in a number of European countries, and now planned to all EU countries may have three forms: 1) the introduction of the tax on the EU border on the carbon import; 2) the distribution of a carbon emission trading system to countries not included in the European Union; 3) the establishment of carbon VAT.
According to the deputies, the legislation of Kazakhstan allows you to integrate into the European carbon emissions trading system, if the second form of carbon tax and "the question is only in the price of carbon units."
"However, if the first or third form of carbon tax is taken, then this, in our opinion, will carry a significant risk for the economy of Kazakhstan, in the export of which the carbon industry prevails is prevailing the commodity sector, primarily oil supplies. And it is necessary to be ready for this in advance, "the deputies noted, asking to reflect the government's position on these issues.
As Mine clarified, the main risks and measures against Kazakhstan are defined in the developed concept of low carbon development until 2050, which includes three scenarios for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan: the basic, green economy and mentioned above - deep decarbonization. The influence of the carbon corrective boundary mechanism (UKPM), as the premier assured, is taken into account in all three scenarios.
Two other scenarios on preliminary modeling results is:
- the basic scenario (maintaining current measures and policies) - the payment of carbon tax to the EU budget for all sectors of the economy of Kazakhstan by 2035 at the export level and prices of 2017 can reach 18.4% of the total export revenue;
- the scenario of the green economy - includes measures to tighten the STT by implementing the mechanism of paid distribution of PG emissions, in which the reduction in PG emissions will reach 60% (the implementation of this scenario will require $ 81.3 billion additional investments by 2050, this will reduce tax by 6.3% in relation to the basic scenario at the level of exports and prices of 2017).
"The EU intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and to achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2050. Within the framework of the declared goal, the European Commission proposes to introduce ICPM, the final form of which is not yet defined, with the most likely mechanism - import tax in the EU. The main task of this tax is primarily a reduction in PG emissions both in the EU and stimulating emission reductions in other countries. The second task is to increase the competitiveness of European goods on the market. The introduction of this tax in the EU is scheduled not earlier than January 1, 2023. Approximate terms for determining the structure and methodology for calculating tax - III quarter of 2021. It is planned that since 2023 the tax will cover the products of such sectors as the production of electricity, ferrous metallurgy and production of minerals, and since 2025, the tax scheme will be expanded on other sectors, among them: chemical industry, all types of metallurgical industry and petrochemistry, "- Announced the head of the Cabinet.
According to him, it is expected that the price of carbon in the EU will significantly increase in the next 10-15 years.
"In 2020, the carbon price was on average about $ 29 per ton of CO2 (carbon dioxide), the predicted price increase will lead to $ 105.9 per ton of CO2 in 2030. To date, a roadmap on response measures has been approved, which includes the improvement of institutional and other measures, and the possibility of adapting the Kazakh SPT with European to expand the sale of carbon units and, depending on the situation in the EU, preventing tariff growth, "Mine concluded .