Oil gradually grows in price. Against this background, the ruble should, at a minimum, climb to the pre-crisis level, but this does not occur. Experts explained to Izvestia, why.
The other day the dollar reached the mark of 73 rubles for the first time since the summer of last year. The ruble shows a strengthening trend, but still remains low - up to 20% below the level that has been fixed before the crisis caused by coronavirus.
The expert note that the financial policy of the authorities, as well as the growing oil prices were to tighten the ruble, but it still costs cheaply.
Almost all global currencies asked last year, and out of this state in different ways. So, Brazilian Real Since the beginning of February 2020, "lost weight" by 36%, and Indian Rupee is only 1.5%. Mexican Peso, which heavily sat down due to falling prices for oil, is now lagging behind only 4.5% of the "normal" levels. The Russian ruble fell in price compared with February 2020 by 15% and is among the outsiders.
Meanwhile, oil costs almost as much as before the crisis - $ 70 per barrel. Sales reduced compared to last year, but not much.
In 2019, the authorities announced that the ruble was taken away from the price of oil, since it would even go to the fall in prices. However, now you can observe the reverse process.
Sergey Konigin, Chief Analyst Gazprombank, notes that the relationship between the ruble course and the characteristics of the Russian economy in recent months weakened. The first place came capital flows.
"Investors change the guidelines for the investments of their capital from Russia in favor of developed countries, counting on a faster exit of their economies from the recession of last year. As a result, the support of the ruble exchange rate from foreign investors in government debt tools has decreased, "he explained.Another important point is that the Ministry of Finance from January 2021 resumed the purchase of currency within the budget rule. This mechanism provides for an adjustment of the country's financial system to oil prices $ 43.4 per barrel, and all additional income over this marks are sent to the FNB.
"The absence of a significant currency pillow, which has been reduced over the past year, does not allow the ruble to strengthen," the expert concluded.Analyst GC "Finam" Andrei Maslov binds the weakness of the ruble with geopolitical tensions, in particular, with the threat of new sanctions. It is for this reason that foreign investors are not interested in Russian business, he is sure.
He noted that even increased inflation in Russia is also influenced by the course, in which the real key rate on the ruble is in the negative area.