The opponents of Russia used the figure of Alexei Navalny and accumulated on the pandemic discontent of people to promote their interests, said Russian President Vladimir Putin. In early February, supporters of the opposition blogger refused to conduct new inconsistent shares to spring, explaining this by the risk of "universal disappointment" of participants. At the same time, the head of the network of regional headquarters Leonid Volkov said that it would be "foreign policy methods" to seek the liberation of Navalny. What does such a change of priorities mean, and what actions can be expected from the opposition in the future, analyzed the head of the Center for Political Economic Research Institute of New Society Vasily Koltashov.
If there is a certain plan of the main "color" coup in the US and the EU in the space of the former USSR, then it concerns Russia. Nowhere in the former Soviet republics, the order after Maidan is not sustainable, and the external influence - provided until there is independent Russia. Therefore, the failure on the Russian front is of great importance for old leaders of the global system, and this change in the Eurasian process.
January failure of the opposition
Standing for Alexey Navalny influential Western circles would not take the decision to return to Russia if such a failure could foresee. They could hardly assume that the fairy-tale palace from the film would be only a concrete villa, where there are no luxury wonders. Even less, they apparently expected the plan for deploying a protest campaign in several stages will be wrapped by its coagulation from the stage to the stage, and instead of climbing there will be a decline. That is what happened. But even the displacement of accents in agitation did not help.According to the results of a very strange campaign, on January 31, a wave of publications in the liberal press and the blogger on the severity of the police and the Rosgvadirdi has gone. From here we can conclude that all this is an attempt to shift the focus with a clearly unsuccessful action; No increase in the number of participants was not visible, and therefore, it was worth expecting a protest. Such a prospect has become more than obvious. Therefore, many prose-free and western media have become a double power to work on emotions, putting an emphasis on the number of participants, not on the content of their assembly (not very understandable after it turned out that the fairy-tale palace is only concrete), and on the topic of the severity of detentions.
In reality, the special severity could hardly be seriously said: Contrary to many provocations, law enforcement officers once again demonstrated the correct performance of their function. In the same US police acts much more tougher. I did not repeat in Moscow to repeat the mistake of our Belarusian colleagues who made a bet on the stiffness of the suppression. In fact, the suppression of protest in Russia was not. Similar to this is not the perception of Navalny in society, rather than that of his cartridges would like.
Other person self-proclaimed leader
Because of the failure of the information campaign, the Palace and by virtue of his appeals to "civilized countries", where even the voters of the XIX century participate in the "fair elections", introduce new sanctions against Russia, in public opinion liberal wrestlers acquired the image of national traitors. Therefore, a huge number of citizens perceived the protests initiated by the pro-Western opposition as an attempt to repeat the Ukrainian Maidan (and isn't it so?). Speaking otherwise, they perceived the police and the National Guard as defenders of national interests in conditions when the West and his elite circles close in the country prepare a color coup.
This was not the situation of oscillations, which was observed in Belarus at the end of summer and in the fall of 2020. Then it took the rapprochement of local authorities with Russia (the refusal to conflict and expand cooperation), the campaign of exposure of Svetlana Tikhanov and other puppet leaders of the local pro-Western National Liberal Opposition to Mass of citizens realized a threat. In Russia, the opposition was instant opposition.
All this also speaks of the division of Russian society, but only a small part of it approves a neoliberal pro-Western party. Most relates to it without approval, and many even openly see it hostility in it.
In many ways, the result of the Ukrainian "revolution of the dignity" and its immersion in 2020 in 2020 is even more destruction, while in Russia there were progressive changes. They concerned the management of economics, social policy, as well as the gradual cleaning of the management system of the state from neoliberal personnel. Finally, an important border was the adoption of amendments to the Constitution. The motives of the Russian headquarters of the liberal opposition voting "for" Russians seem to have not analyzed at all.
Bad Navalny Protection
In this situation, Navalny could hardly count on a profitable judicial verdict. After his arrest at the airport, he might still believed in the promise of the struggle promised him, and maybe a quick release. But in February it was time for completely different thoughts inspired by the failure of the campaign.At the end of the court, many observers had a feeling that Alexei Navalny was specifically violated before hospitalization in Russia, the rules of conditionally convicted. This was clearly part of a big strategy (maybe far from his personal), which turned fiasco. As a result, as lawyers and promised, it happened - because he violated the trial period and did it systemically, the court decision on the period was real here was quite logical. Navalny at these claims, the FSIN could not answer meaningfully, and at the court did not defend this position. Yes, she was not important for him politically. Another thing is that this political game turned out to be in vain: the result did not work, and the problems arose.
Interestingly, the defense of the blogger-politics also slipped out of the question of the reason for the failure to appear to hospitalization and in addition to his stay in Germany. In the former speeches, Navalny said that his "violation" was supposed to be supposedly in the fact that he was in an unconscious form in Germany. However, Navalny FSIN during the non-resident period did not cause. Again, it went out, something was his bet in the game and the game is well enough, legal subtleties would not matter. But in this game there was no present analysis, everything was adventurously and according to the result - stupid. The Navalny will probably be forced to reflect in the coming months. Obviously, politician and its cartridges did not understand the logic of the development of the social process in Russia; They did not have any other information resource for success, but something fundamental.
Take a look at everything otherwise
Time will tell. Perhaps, Navalny guess that the nebid of the masses according to his appeal to the street is not a passiveness before crying, but a conscious decision. This action. If he understands it, he will understand what was in vain to play his destiny. After all, he knows that objective reasons for failure, and this is 7 violations before hospitalization in 2020, he did not have. He knows that these FSIN 60 violations in the previous years of conditional condemnation were also part of the game. And there is no new business against Navalny. All the old, and only the order of serving the punishment for economic crimes changes.
However, there is something to think about the rest. The failure of the Protest Campaigns of the Liberal Opposition changes in the Eurasian space. After all, now all processes in a large international game can turn over in the opposite direction.
This will mean not the onset of the Maidanov, and the onslaught of "color" are pro-Western neoliberal modes. The effectiveness of the reflection of new "revolutions of dignity" can also increase on the Ukrainian sample. But here the key is the course, which is ready to carry out the authorities of those or other post-Soviet states.
Fundamental conclusion for Eurasia
In the midst of the civil war in Ukraine, in 2014, some analysts warned: if Russia gives the United States and the EU to take this country under its control, then the export of the "Color Revolution" into other states is inevitable. It was logical to expect in Moscow. The external battle for Russia should have become inner, because the external one was only geographically. For neutrality, it was supposed to suffer punishment and Belarus, which in 2020 received its conducted from the outside Maidan. Here the support of Moscow did not allow him to win, but it did not save Russia from the attempt of pro-Western liberals-opposition to organize the seizure of power.
Events made clarity where politicians would not want to understand. However, the adventureness of the Navalny Campania at the beginning of 2021 in Russia had its consequences. The main thing is the overall failure of Maidan in Russia, where the mass of the population refused to support the Oppositionists-Westerners. It is not at all for the benefit of the protest, enhanced by the Western press, as well as the appearance on the "historical" court over the bulk numerous delegation of foreign diplomats. Finally, the Russian society perceived this not at all as they would like in the West
The once shining "hail on the hill", the American system of power (oligarchy, outstanding himself for democracy) and a successful economy (issued for a free market model) - all this turned out to be the ruins. Therefore, when supporters of the "Color Revolution" have become more active in pointing to "normal countries" as a sample for Russia, it worked against them. Citizens did not have and could not support the shares announced by the authoritarian headquarters of Navalny. Maidan failed. Falling with a crash. It also happened due to the socio-patriotic changes that began in Russia in recent years.
In fact, the Maidan plan was finally buried at the time of adopting amendments to the Constitution, but the organizers preferred to not be noticed. They hardly draw conclusions and from further.
This further can be described as an inverse movement: in countries where the power is pro-Western National Liberals (which came to power and as a result of coups) of force, they will lose this power. The opposition in relation to their policies will strengthen and speak the most clearly, seeing another way in Russian politics and deepening Eurasian integration. Undoubtedly, we will still see a political crisis in Ukraine, as the main unsuccessful Maidan occurred in Eurasia - a pro-Western opposition in Russia came to Fiasco. This changes the alignment of the forces, in the sense that the camp of "color revolutions" is becoming increasingly weaker. He threw huge resources in the battle for the slate of the situation in Russia, and did not achieve anything.
Vasily Koltashov, head of the Center for Political Economic Research Institute of New Society