On Friday, the Board of Directors of the Banan Russia will again make a decision on a key rate. In four previous meetings, it was left unchanged at 4.25%. However, in February 2021, the regulator has changed the rhetoric regulator: the words on the assessment of the potential of further decline in the key rate were changed by the phrase "The Bank of Russia will determine the timeline and the rate of return to neutral monetary policy" (the current policy is considered soft, the return to neutral implies an increase rates).
Bankinform.ru questioned experts, is it possible to increase the key rate on March 19.
Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist Alfa Bank:Without changes
- We share the view that the acceleration of inflation in recent months causes serious concerns from the Central Bank, but we still see a number of factors that speak in favor of raising the rate at a meeting in April, and not this week. First, inflation was 0.2% since the beginning of the month on March 9, which creates expectations that annual inflation in March is likely to be preserved at the level of 5.7-5.8%, coming out on the peak of annual prices; The head of the Central Bank in his last interview with the Russian media pointed out that such a development of events corresponds to the expectations of the Central Bank. Secondly, strong support for the ruble price has high oil prices, which will ensure a favorable contribution due to the transfer effect. Thirdly, economic growth in Russia will be in the zone of positive values since April, and April will be the most appropriate time to start the raising raising cycle. At the same time, we also agree that the inflation trend develops for the worst scenario, and food inflation is still not under the control of the government; This can be an argument for the Central Bank to act before. As for the script of raising a rate of up to 5.5% by the end of this year, at the moment we consider this scenario too hard and do not expect the rate will go above 5.0% to the fourth quarter.
Svetlana Kovaleva, Head of Absolut Bank in Yekaterinburg:Without changes
- We predict that the rate will remain unchanged. There are no unambiguous trends yet, and the Central Bank is most likely to take a pause in the movement of the bet.
Stanislav Murashov, Macroanalyst Raiffeisenbank:Without changes
- The consistent tightening of the rhetoric of the Central Bank from the end of last year was especially clearly manifested in the last days: the regulator clearly hints at the need to a faster raising raising, which, apparently, will happen already this year. And in general, such an opportunity is not excluded even at the near meeting this Friday, although we still believe that the Central Bank will retain the rate unchanged.
Evgenia Kosheliev, Director of the Office of Market Research and Strategy Rosbank:Without changes
- We expect the bid to save on March 19, despite the pretty big Haip around this topic against the background of accelerating inflation. If you raise a bet, then it makes sense to do this in April - there will be more data on economic activity, less statistical "noise" and emotions on this matter. Also in April there will be more space for communication solutions - at the April meeting, forecasts for the economy will be updated, predictions have been added at the key rate and a press conference of the head of the Central Bank will be held.
Lushin Eduard, Deputy Chairman of the Board, Head of the Treasury of the SDM Bank:+0.25 p. P.
- In connection with the prolonged character of increased inflation in Staddanny, we expect the first increase in the key rates of the Central Bank at the near meeting on 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum. The attention will be focused on the comments of the head of the Bank of Russia on the estimated pace of normalization of monetary policy.
Another question is that most of the observed inflation is rather imported, the internal factors lose their influence. In addition, the transfer of the ruble to inflation is coming to an end, the strengthening of the ruble for the first quarter will have a smoothing effect on inflation.
Alexander Kravtsov, Director of the Department of Operations in the Financial Markets of SKB-Bank:Without changes
- We expect that the key rate will remain unchanged on March 19. Inflation has grown significantly, exceeding the target level of the Bank of Russia, the peak is expected in the next month, followed by a decline. In such a situation of immediate action from the Bank of Russia, it is not required, it may be indicated on the trajectory of bets in the future.