On Monday, February 15, the victorious strengthening of the Russian ruble to the dollar and a single European currency resumed. To the closure of Monday trading, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble calculations "For tomorrow" fell on 38 kopecks. (-0.5%), up to 73.34 rubles, and the euro rate dropped to 37 kopecks. (-0.41%), up to 88.96 rubles, for the first time since January 20 of this year, dropping below 89 rubles.
A few factors affected the strengthening of Russian national factors. First, a sharp jump in oil prices last Friday and the continuation of the oil rally on Monday: So, the price of Brent oil took off for almost 4% in two days and confidently rose above $ 62 per barrel. Secondly, the news related to the fight against the "CAID" in the world: for example, the European Union announced on Monday to purchase additional doses of vaccine against coronavirus from the American company MODERNA (NASDAQ: MRNA). Thirdly, ruble helped to strengthen the dollar's weakening for a few days.
On Monday, the data on the decrease in industrial production in Russia in January 2021 by 2.5% on the annual basis did not have a negative impact on the ruble, as the decline is associated with a smaller number of working days in January and the constraints associated with the constraint for some industries in A number of regions.
Our expectations today at the rate of the dollar to the ruble are in the range of 73-74 rubles, and at the euro course - within 88-89.5 rubles.
Oil market
Oil rally on Monday continued, although his pace slowed down somewhat. The price of Barrel Brent Monday in Monday increased by 0.98%, to $ 62.78, and the price of Barrel Texas WTI rose by 0.86%, to $ 60. In the morning, a smooth price increase continues: the price of Brent rises by 0.47%, to $ 63.08 per barrel, and the price of WTI grows by 0.28%, updating the next maximum of $ 60.17 per barrel.
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Muhammed Bin Salman Al-Saud had a telephone conversation, during which joint efforts to combat Kovida Pandemic, aggravation of the political situation in Yemen, as well as coordinating actions under OPEC agreement + to stabilize the oil market. The oil market has positively perceived the constructive communication of the leaders of leading oil exporting countries.
While the price of Brent could not be entrenched above $ 63 per barrel, but this level is not the limit of its growth, and its overcoming is only a matter of time. Today I predict the corridor at the price of Brent at $ 62.5-64 per barrel.
Stock market
The Russian stock market on Monday again began confident raising. The Mosbirji index has grown on the first day of the week by 1.6%, to 3481.9 points. The RTS index rose even stronger, by 2.35%, to 1496.4 points. Dynamics better than the market on Monday showed ordinary shares "Mechel" (+ 3.5%), shares of Norilsk Nickel (+ 3.47%) and depositary receipts of the trading network "Tape" (+ 2.82%). Worse than the market was the dynamics of the shares of the Alrosa diamond unit (-1.2%) and long-reaching communice with ordinary shares of the preferred shares "Mechel" (-0.7%).
We believe that today the Mosbiergiers index will conduct auction in the range of 3470-3500 points, and the RTS index - in the corridor 1480-1510 points.
Natalia Milchakova, Deputy Director of the Alpari Analytical Department
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