Yesterday's session, the Russian stock market began very cheerfully, in the first hours adding a percentage of the Mosbersean index. In many ways, this growth was not attempted to play a rebound, but by closing speculative shorts. However, in the future, as we feared, the sales returned, and to the closure of the main session, the ruble indicator of the market lost more than half of this success.
Sberbank shares (MCX: Sber) (-1.1%) and Norilsk Nickel (MCX: GMKN) (-0.73%) inspire a special fear. Moreover, the latter fell, despite the rising prices for its main products. The dynamics of these papers "worse than the market" often suggests that non-residents have begun to sell Russian shares.
The external background today speaks in favor of the resumption of a correctional decline: American futures fall at halfrship, slightly more decreases oil, in minus the main commodity assets, with the exception of gold.
There are no special reasons for the overseas fall. But gold growth with a strengthening dollar can say that after all, the fears of weaker growth of the global economy due to the continuing victorious procession of the pandemic increase, and investors began to go to protective assets.
For ruble assets, sanction problems and the growth of protest sentiment of the population are added to these risks, which we see from media reports about the high number of protests involved in unauthorized Saturday rallies.
So today the decline in Russian shares will resume, and the ruble will continue. Risk investors can be attempted to make money on the fall of banks - Sberbank and VTB (MCX: VTBR). It seems more risky - the paper is fundamentally very strong. You can also wait for the decline in the "oil market", primarily RosneftB (MCX: ROSN) and LUKOIL (MCX: LKOH). Most likely, the win-win version will sell futures for the RTS index.
The most dangerous option is to try to catch the fall of Mosbier's shares (MCX: MOEX), as paper often grows against the market. Yesterday she became one of the best, adding 2.6% for the day.
The ruble yesterday also started the day from an attempt to strengthen, but very quickly fell under the sale, as a result of which the pair of the dollar-ruble completed the day a moderate growth in the area just above 75.3. Today we do not see the reasons to allow the ruble to play at least part of the losses of the last days. OPZ and oil fall, and, though weakly, but the dollar grows to the basket of world currencies. Left support from the tax period.
In such a situation, the first goal of devaluation - 76 rubles per dollar - is becoming more and more real. It is possible that the couple today will not only tested for strength, but it will also be able to gain themselves above with a worsening of an external background.
Chief Analyst Alor Broker Alexey Antonov
Read Original Articles on: Investing.com