A number of experts traditionally before the new year predict the collapse of the dollar. But not everyone agrees with this position. How will the currency courses will be formed after the holidays in a conversation with Bankiros.ru told the QBF analyst Ksenia Lapshin.
How much will the dollars and the euro cost after the new year?Given high volatility in the foreign exchange market, it would be problematic to call the exact courses. Nevertheless, a number of factors can be distinguished that will affect the domestic currency, and designate an approximate range. First of all, the ruble will respond to the situation in the oil market. Positively on the course of the ruble will affect the gradual increase in demand for oil and oil quotes in the event that vaccination will be successful and will be able to stop the pandemic with it. In a favorable conjuncture, the Russian market and the Russian currency will be attractive for non-residents, which can stimulate the strengthening of the ruble. Also currency rates will depend on the policies of central banks, the volume of monetary stimulation and the level of key bet in the Eurozone, the USA and the Russian Federation.
The negative for the ruble may be the resumption of the sanction rhetoric of the United States in relation to Russia after the inauguration of Joe Bayden. The expert believes that in the first 1-2 months of 2021, the dollar will be in the range of 70-75 rubles. The decline below is 70 rubles is unlikely, since in the interests of the state and exporters to maintain a moderately weak ruble. The euro at the beginning of 2021 will change in a narrower range of 88-90 rubles.
If desired, purchase currencies for savings when it is better to go to the exchanger before or after the new year?On New Year's holidays often publish news and occur situations that can significantly change the situation in the market. While investors are resting in a circle of family and friends, trends for the coming year are born in the markets. If you buy assets now, in a month, buying can play a bad joke with an investor. That is why at the end of any period, be it month, quarter or year, investors prefer, on the contrary, to close the positions, and not to gain them. The same can be said about currency.
What will affect the ruble rate in the next couple of months?Buying currency for savings and investment makes sense only in the long run, since no one is insured against temporary fluctuations in currency courses. In the foreign exchange market, high volatility is often observed. If the investor firmly intends to convert savings in rubles in six months, then it may run into a disadvantaged course and stay in the minus. But on the long horizon, currency savings can really bring good income, especially with additional investment of dollars in securities.