Gasoline's consumption peak was passed in 2019, stated on Wednesday Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (MEA) Fatih Birol at a press conference dedicated to a new forecast for the oil market at 2021-2026. He made a reservation that analysts agency had previously done similar assumptions, but now for the first time they can confidently declare it. "Of course there may be surprises, but we no longer expect the return of gasoline consumption to the level of 2019," concluded Birol.
According to Maa, in 2020, due to Lokdaunov during a pandemic, the demand for automotive gasoline fell to a record 2.9 million barrels per day. In 2021, thanks to the restoration of the activity of Drivers, the MEA expects the growth of average daily demand by 1.7 million barrels, and in 2022 - at 470,000 barrels. In 2026, gasoline consumption will be only 25.9 million barrels - this is 690,000 barrels per day below 2019.
According to Birol, the most significant drop in consumption is expected in developed countries, while developing demand will continue to grow, albeit in a small pace.
In Russia, gasoline production in 2020 fell by about 5% to 38.4 million tons, follows from the data of the Ministry of Energy. But oil workers historically export only a small volume of gasoline, mainly supplying fuel to the domestic market. True, in 2020, according to the FCS, its exports grew by 12.4% almost up to 6 million tons.
In the future, it is planned to increase the export of autobanzin from Russia, but even in the maximum scenario, it will still be relatively small - about 10 million tons compared with 50 million tons of export of diesel fuel, says chief economist Vygon Consulting Sergey Ezhov. Russian exporters will be able to redirect autobanzine to the markets of Asia and Africa, where the consumption growth is still predicted, the expert believes. As a solution to the problem, many companies also consider grocery flexibility: they can partially switch power to the production of autobanzin to produce raw materials for petrochemistry, tells hedges.
Batteries instead of gasolineThe reason for the situation of the situation in the global market of gasoline is the growth of electric cars, explains the MEA. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, sales of passenger electric vehicles will grow in the next five years to 8.5 million in 2025, the MEA expects that in 2026 sales will already be 12 million, and the total number of electric vehicles approach 60 million. This will lead to a decrease in world demand for oil, almost half of which is processed into fuel for road transport, by 1 million barrels per day: due to the emergence of a larger number of electric cars and buses on the roads in 2026, the need for 700,000 gasoline barrels will disappear and 300 000 - Diesel.
"In the next four years, we will see such changes in the electric transport market, which were not seen over the previous 20 years," the President and CEO of the US Science and Research Institute of Electric Power Industry Arshad Mansur.
Many countries have set deadlines to stop selling vehicles with an internal combustion engine (DVS). So, in Norway, he will come in 2025 (in September last year, 61.5% of new cars were electric), in the Netherlands - in 2030, in the UK - in 2035, in France - in 2040 in California, which is the largest car market (annual sales - about 2 million cars, almost 10% of oil demand in the country), the ban will enter into force in 2035. At the same time, the electrical infrastructure in California is developing rapidly: if the gas station in the state is less than 10,500 (Of these, 8270 are gasoline), then charging stations for electric vehicles - about 32,000 (in the next day of New York - about 6,000, according to the US Department of Energy).
More than half of the electric vehicles in 2026 will run along China's roads, about a quarter - in Europe, the rest - in Japan, the United States and other countries, predicts the MEA.
The requirements of governments and consumers are encouraged by autocompany. General Motors promised by 2035 to stop letting out passenger cars with DVS, Volvo put such a goal for 2030 according to the forecast of the organization Transport & Environment, this year 15% of the cars sold in the European Union will be electrical or rechargeable hybrids (almost five times more, than in 2019). Volkswagen plans that by 2030, under the VW brand in Europe, there will be 70% of sales in Europe, and in the USA and China - more than 50%. For this, VW intends to build or open six batteries in Europe and five times to 18,000 to 2025. The number of powerful charging stations in Europe (they will be located at BP gas stations).
More oil, less processingDue to the decline in gasoline demand in the coming years, the third wave of closure of oil refining plants can be passed, facilitates the IEA. It is necessary to remove the power that produce 6 million barrels of fuel per day, only in this case the loading of the plants will grow to 80% and their work will become effective, explained the Senior Analyst for the oil market Maa Toril Bosni. Companies have already announced plans to close the capacity for the production of 3.6 million barrels per day.
The first optimization wave in the oil refining sector was held in the 1980s, when the capacity was closed by 12 million barrels of fuel per day, and in early 2010. Another 7 million barrels left the market.
But, if the states will not tighten the policy on the transition to a low carbon economy, the MEA does not expect the peak of demand for crude oil in the coming years, said Birol. "I know that many industry leaders recently stated that the peak of consumption was passed, but we do not think," he said. On the contrary, according to the agency's forecast, until the end of 2026, the average daily demand for oil will grow annually and as a whole compared to 2020 G. will grow by 10.3 million barrels to 104.2 million on a dock (100 million barrels) demand will return in 2023
At the same time, the main supplier of oil in the world market will be replaced, IEA expects. If in 2017-2019 The United States satisfied almost all the increase in demand, which was approximately 4 million barrels per day, now the main producer will be the countries of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, told Birol. Extraction in the United States in 2026 will grow only by 1.6 million barrels compared to 2020, and in the three countries listed, 4.1 million in Russia - by 0.7 million barrels, IEA predicts.
But, if governments and business will make more efforts to limit the increase in world temperature, not even by 2 °, and by 1.5 ° (the range laid down in the Paris Climate Agreement), the demand for oil can fall much more, experts of the International Agency consider on renewable energy sources (IRENA). Namely, 85% to 11 million barrels per day by 2050, said on Tuesday an organization uniting 163 countries.
Technologies for such a radical transition to a cleanest economy already mainly eating, but to ensure an effective green transition, it is necessary to significantly increase investment - up to $ 4.4 trillion per year, according to IRENA. This is two more times more than in 2019. "To achieve significant changes, you need to sharply speed up the power switch," said Francesca La Camera, CEO of IRENA.