Contrary to the pandemic last year turned out to be extremely successful for the mortgage market, which had established several historical records at once, follows from the statistics of the Central Bank. For the year, Russians scored 1.7 million mortgage loans by almost 4.3 trillion rubles. Previous record of 2018 - just over 3 trillion rubles.
Borrowers were activated at the end of the year, issued in December 212,500 loans by 560 billion rubles.
As a result, the mortgage portfolio of banks by the beginning of 2021 reached 9.07 trillion rubles. The share of overdue mortgage debt due to the growth of the portfolio decreased over the year: from 0.97 to 0.85% per January of this year.
The reason for the excitement was a significant drop in mortgage rates after the key batch of the Central Bank (decreased over the year at 2 percentage points. Up to 4.25%). So, the weighted average rate issued during the month mortgage fell from 9 to 7.36%. During the year, the rate has updated the historical minimum several times, reaching the bottom in August - 7.16%, but in the fall she grazed.
Additionally, the demand for housing loans was heated by the program of the preferential mortgage last year under 6.5%. According to the operator of the program, Dom.rf, last year the banks issued 345,600 concessional loans for more than 1 trillion rubles, that is, almost every fifth loan was issued at a preferential rate.
The program of the preferential mortgage was significantly supported by the market, but the main contribution to the growth of the market amid the overall decline in rates was still transactions with secondary housing, including the refinancing of previously issued loans, insists the younger director for banking ratings "Expert RA" Catherine Schurichina. The savings factor also affected: it believes: crisis phenomena in the economy, the fall of the ruble exchange rate and the decline in deposit rates stimulated the population to look for more reliable and rectic ways of investment of funds.
The program of the preferential mortgage was launched in April 2020 to support developers in the crisis. Under its conditions, the mortgage rate cannot exceed 6.5% per annum (percentage incaprained by banks subsidizes the state). The maximum loan amount for Moscow, St. Petersburg and their regions is 12 million rubles, for other regions - 6 million, the minimum size of the initial contribution is 15%. Initially, the program was supposed to be completed on November 1, but then was extended until July 1 of this year. And last week "Interfax" with reference to sources in the government reported that officials discuss the re-extension of the program - until the end of 2021, but with modifications. For example, it could be extended only in some regions, where housing construction is developing inactive, said on Thursday Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the financial market of Anatoly Aksakov.
Price record
However, the Central Bank drew attention to the "unwanted effects" of the mortgage boom in the review "On the Development of the Banking Sector". First of all, it is the rise in housing prices, which has largely ate benefits from lower rates. According to the Central Bank, last year housing prices rose by 15.6%. In addition, banks began to issue more loans low (less than 20% of the cost of housing) by the initial contribution: it is 35% of the issuance in the third quarter of 2020 against 28% in the second quarter. On the primary market, where the preferential program is used, the share of such loans has grown even more: up to 40% from 24%. A decent mortgage volume of a low initial contribution is issued to people who have a rather high debt load, and a combination of these two factors while maintaining the current growth rates, as well as, taking into account the cost of housing, can lead to risk accumulation, noted the Director of the Banking Support Department of the Central Bank Alexander Danilov.
Nevertheless, according to the nine months of 2020, the preferential mortgage continued to remain profitable for the borrower in terms of decline in the monthly payment and overpayment, Schurichina notes. According to it, it is estimated at the current average rates on the market, timing and initial contribution of the benefit from the preferential mortgage will come to no at the average square meter as a whole in Russia above 81,000-82,000 rubles. (Now, according to Rosstat, this is just over 76,000 rubles. for 1 square meters on the primary market). With these values, the size of the monthly payment at a reduced rate is practically equal to the payment before reducing rates and active price increases.
But the decline in rates, even without benefits, was essential that in any case the rise in real estate market would be missed, the senior director of the Group of Financial Institutions Acre Valery Paveen notes.
"We do not see a significant change in the average check and average payment," says the head of the development of the mortgage business development bank Elena Nazarenko. The quality of loans, according to her, consistently high.
Further - hardly more
There is a chance that the mortgage will chef this year, a bit, unanimous experts. Taking into account the acceleration of inflation at the beginning of the year, the grounds for further decline in the key rate and, as a result, there are no mortgage rates, says brewing.
If the program of the preferential mortgage will be completed by July 1, in the second half of the year, it is possible to expect some growth of the weighted average market rate, admits Schurichina. The possible level of mortgage rates in the first half of the year is 7-7.5%, in the second - 7.5-8%, it says.
"The rates can move about 0.2-0.3 pp on both sides," said Tatyana Ushkov, the rates of "Absolut Bank". But since the key rate is on a record low, the primary and secondary market will continue to grow - it believes about 5-10%, it believes. Nazarenko is also waiting for the relative stability of rates with a slight movement down or up depending on the market situation.
The hype in the mortgage market and the transition to project financing of developers led to a significant increase in ESCRO accounts last year. According to the Central Bank, for the year they rose from 137 billion to 1.2 trillion rubles.
Schurichina believes that the growth of the market will be more organic: a significant part of the borrowers with ahead took a mortgage last year due to attractive rates, while in the conditions of falling income of the population to the market inevitably less new solvent customers. The further extension of the preferential mortgage can lead to imbalances on the market and overheating it, it fears, as it can attract borrowers who reward their strength to maintain such a long-term commitment as a mortgage. Therefore, in the event of the progress of the program, it makes sense to revise its conditions, for example, to increase the initial fee, Shchurichina argues.