Will the new wave of coronavirus begin in 2021?

Anonim

At the end of 2020, the United Kingdom's authorities reported the opening of a new coronavirus strain, which is known today as B.1.1.7. For the first time, it was discovered in mid-October, during the study of the genetic code of virus samples collected in different parts of the country. The new strain was 70% contagious, so the disease quickly spread throughout the UK. Then the new virus moved to Denmark, Australia and the Netherlands. And recently infection with a new strain was recorded in Russia. If you consider the new year holidays that have recently, during which people see more often than usual, a new wave of coronavirus can begin in the world. The probability of this is also rising due to the increased contagiousness of the new strain. In the scientific journal Science, even a message appeared that the new wave may be stronger than previous ones.

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The new Coronavirus mutation is more infection and it is alarming

Third wave coronavirus

The first case of infection with coronavirus was recorded on December 8, 2019. Since humanity has not come across pandemic for a long time, the problem seemed to be frozen. The whole world was watching what was happening in China has not yet become clear that the disease began to infect people from other countries. In the spring, almost all over the world, quarantine was declared and most people were forced to sit at home. By the summer, the restrictions were weakened and during the warm season of sharp jumps of the number of infected people was not observed. But in the fall, the virus began to spread even stronger. Perhaps the number of confirmed infection cases increased due to greater accessibility of tests. Be that as it may, this period was called the second wave.

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In 2020, we learned on our own experience what self-insulation

Some researchers believe that the third wave will begin after the New Year holidays. During the weekend, many people, according to tradition, began to meet more often with relatives and friends. In stores there were full of people and about the observance of the social distance, many forgot. It is because of this in the coming months, the number of infected people may again increase. Of course, at the moment there are already several vaccines from Coronavirus in the world, but many people have passed the vaccination. Until someone passed did not reach the line, but someone refuses them, fearing side effects.

Read also: Why is the Russian vaccine from coronavirus called "satellite V"?

Increased contractions of coronavirus

Also alarming the fact that the strain B.1.1.7 is considered more contagious than the rest. Recently, scientists calculated the reproductive number of the new strain. This is the name of the average number of people who are able to become infected from one media of the virus. According to preliminary data, this indicator is about 70% higher than other SARS-COV-2 coronavirus strains. The reason for this is the fact that the new strain has undergone many mutations. Mostly changes occurred in genes that play a large role in the ability of the virus to penetrate into human cells. More about what the new strain of coronavirus is dangerous, I wrote in this material.

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In addition to B.1.1.7, scientists are also alarming strain B.1.351, which was discovered in South Africa. But there is little little about him

The new Coronavirus mutation is increasing, but this does not mean that it is more deadly. At least there is no scientific evidence to this. Good news can be considered that the vaccines created at the moment are capable of protecting from infection. And all because they affect not yet mutating parts of the coronavirus. Bad news is that due to the dubious quality of most vaccines, many people still remain without protection. If the new version of the coronavirus is really so infection, the number of cases really can increase. Most of them should recover, but in proportion to the growth of morbidity, and mortality will increase. In addition, it is not a fact that the infected people will recover without consequences. Recently, my colleague love Sokovikova has already written that about 76% of the COVID-19 suffered from complications even six months after recovery.

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To prevent the beginning of a new wave, people are important to continue compliance with precautions. In public places you still need to abide by the social distance and not crowd. Also do not forget about protective masks, whose deficit is already behind - they can be bought almost everywhere. Facial touch and, moreover, the eye is categorically impossible until the hands are thoroughly washed with water with soap. Well, of course, when symptoms are found, it seems to disappear the sense of smell, you need to stop contacting people.

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