The Chamber of Representatives of the US Congress today voted for the adoption of a package of assistance to the American economy by $ 1.9 trillion. At the time of publication, the majority of votes in favor of the bill have already been collected, but then the consideration was postponed and congressmen went for a break. The approval was seriously given not only to the legislators - the markets also met it at all as a holiday. Futures on S & P 500 by 18.00 MSK went to 3790 p. Relative to the maximum, 3960 p., This means a drop by 4.3% - nothing terrible, but already unpleasant, as it is only 20 p. Above the closure of last year. True, then the futures came out in a plus, finding out the expectations of the approval of the economy support package to 3860 p. - But it was returned to the completion of voting accurately to the level of previous closure, 3830 p.
World markets are almost massable "in red", most of them decreased more than 1% per day. The Volatility index S & P 500 VIX today again exceeded 30 p. Economic statistics also pleases, but not very. The February mood indices and consumer expectations from the University of Michigan are good - unlike the fallen more expected, the business activity index in Chicago was supposed. At the same time, it became known that the basic prices for personal consumption goods in January in the United States grew faster than expectations, and the costs of individuals, on the contrary, were behind forecasts.
And this all nervousness is now, although the main vote in the package of incentives will be in the Senate, next week. "Today is the last commercial day of the month, and perhaps with regard to growth, we are talking about clean technique - I want to close better. There is also good news that the Senate blocked frankly populist and either generating inflation, whether the idea of increasing the minimum salary to $ 15 per hour. But movement down the shares and up the profitability of the bonds has not yet ended. The main problem is that neither the speeches of the head of the Fed of Jerome Powell, nor the rest of the statements have not yet been convinced - there are a lot of short positions on American statestormags, and the movement will continue. The real struggle on the 10-year-old will be at the level of 1.8-1.9% - this is another 25 BP on the current level, which roughly corresponds to the stock market shift by 150 p., That is, up to 3700 pp. And about 2.5% yield For 30-year-olds. If it is possible to slow down at this level, then the shares will slow down the fall, "said Valery Weissberg, director of the Analytical Department of IC Region. - But for this we need more significant factors: either people must believe that their expectations for inflation are overestimated, or the regulator must reassure investors about the long rates required for investment projects, declare something like the next Twist operation. After a couple of weeks, the next reference meeting of the Fed is awaiting us at the rate. This time, not even forecasts at the rate, but the vision of inflation will be interesting. During these two weeks, the package of incentives will take place, markets will respond and the Fed will have time to understand what people want. "
Futures on Brent Brent decreases more smasher than the stock market, from a local maximum of $ 66.8. It is just 3.4%, but also a bounce is much less noticeable. And where to bounce here, when Bloomberg reports the barrels accumulated from China with excessive billion? Nevertheless, there is a chance that the decline will be short-lived here. "OPEC + will clearly reduce quotas for another 0.5-1 million barrels, plus saudis may require compensate for them voluntary reduction, but even in this scenario prices are likely to grow: the market asks oil, so on the horizon of the coming weeks we can Go to $ 70, "analyst believes.
In Russia and without trillion, everything is fine. US President Joe Biden today stated that "Russia will answer for the accession of Crimea," but nothing concrete added. There are good news: Wintershall DEA has denied the release of the release from the North Stream-2 project, specifying that "just does not plan to finance it this year" due to the lack of applications. And there are funny: the FBI announced a reward of $ 250 thousand. For information that could help the arrest of Putin's chefs entrepreneur Evgeny Prigogina - despite the fact that its companies are carried out in Russia a number of state orders.
The Mosbier index today lost 1.85%, the RTS index is 2.65%. The GOSBUMAG index RGBI decreased by 0.43% to 147.42 p. - If not to take into account last year's March collapse in connection with the pandemic, this is the level of October 2019, the decline in comparison with the May maximum has already reached 6.4%.
Happiness is that the RTS index since the beginning of the year grew by only 1.76% - so the reasons for the correction practically did not remain. "Our market is clearly under the influence of global trends, for all markets there is a frontal sale of GOSBUMAG. Indicators, stock and LUKOIL shares (MCX: LKOH), while they look good, but if the storm continues, then we will have the same thing: the sale of specific assets classes. Moreover, in March, the inflow of funds for global markets weakens, so that, perhaps, this year, investors have already been taking place and go into cash. However, there will not take a lot of profit from our market, in two months nothing has not made anything, so an attempt to gain 1400 pp. On the RTS is quite likely. According to the ruble, too, nothing is particularly new: neither up, nor down. It is under pressure, but taking into account the likely continuation of the increase in oil prices, the ruble will remain at the same levels that now - 73-75 per dollar, "Valery Weisberg predicts.
(The text has prepared Daniel Zagananov)
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