The spot price index in Asia JKM (Japan-Korea Marker) of the S & P Global Platts price agency on Monday took off more than 30% and reached $ 32.5 per MMBTU (about $ 1160 per 1000 cubic meters), Interfax said reference to Bloomberg. French Total sold the LNG Party Trader Trafigura is even more expensive - $ 39.3 / MMBTU ($ 1403 per 1000 cubic meters. M on DES conditions when the seller is responsible for transportation).
Freight rates tankers jumped almost six times compared with prices of semi-annual statute up to $ 350,000 per day, says analyst ICIS Roman Kazmin. Gasosozov and so lack, and then the price of LNG in Asia took off, he explains.
There were never such prices as now, at the previous peak in 2012-2013. Gas in Asia cost about $ 20 / MMBTU, says analyst. The main reasons: Cold Winter in China, Japan and Korea and the Panaman Canal, where the tankers with American LNG pass to Asia with a delay, he explains. Asian countries need to be inserted into the expansion of the Panama Canal, retells one of the traders walking on the market.
Excellent prices - a temporary phenomenon, says Kazmin: LNG with delivery in the second half of February is sold for $ 20.2 / MMBTU, and with delivery in March - $ 14 / MMBTU.
No vacant tablesRussian companies are unlikely to be able to make money on the Asian spot market, written in the review of analysts Sberbank CIB. Most of the LNG of the largest plant in Yamal LNG plant (16.5-18.4 million tons per year) and the Gazprom plant Sakhalin Energy (11.6 million tons) are sold under long-term contracts: for Yamal LNG - this 96%, for SakhaLin Energy - 98%. Prices in contracts are tied mainly to oil quotes and prices on gas hubs. Both factories produce more LNGs, which implies their power (for example, in 2019 the free volumes that companies could send on Spot, accounted for 2.6 million tons and 0.7 million tons respectively). Such a contractedness with refractory prices for oil quotes is the usual case for all LNG plants, says Kazmin. Exception - projects in the United States, where prices in contracts are tied to the quotes of the Internal Gas Hub Hub. All over the world, except the states, under the construction of factories, you need to develop the gas field, and without long-term contracts with reference to oil, banks simply will not be issued loans for these purposes, the expert explains.
But the main limitation for NOVATEK is a deficit of tankers, not production capacity, says Senior Consultant Vygon Consulting Ekaterina Kolbikov.
During the "explosive" prices, NOVATEK did not put on SPOT to Asia as a single gas party with Yamal LNG (the company sells almost half of the gas of the plant through the subsidiary Novatek Gas and Power Asia), says one of the traders of LNG. At Yamal LNG, there are simply no free tankers, Novatek tried to find tankers on the market, but it is unsuccessful, he says. In addition, the company now does not have free parties. The plant itself free volumes supplies to Europe - also due to the lack of transport, he explains.
In early January, the company sent two arc grade tankers from Sabbet to China, which last year stopped walking east in October. But gas carriers are carrying LNG in long-term contracts, and not on SPOT, with increasing prices, this is not connected, tells the trader. "NOVATEK" in the fall of last year, the late flights of gas carriers like Yamalmax ice class ARC7 to Asia through Seedview in January, confirms the head of the Goscon advisory center Mikhail Grigoriev.
Purely theoretically in the period of high prices "NOVATEK" may have time to put in Asia a maximum of four parties of LNG, that is, about 0.5 million tons, says Kazmin. According to Sberbank estimates, it will add $ 200 million to EBITDA $ 200 million. But it is unlikely that the company will be able to sell LNG on space in Asia - now almost no one can do this due to the deficit of tankers, the trader believes.
Vtimes could not find out whether Sakhalin Energy was able to sell the party on space in Asia, the company representative has not yet responded to the request.
NOVATEK will work in Europe"NOVATEK" in any case found himself in a winning situation, Kolbikov believes. First, more than 60% of Long-term contracts "Yamal LNG" are sold in European Point Points on FOB (Free On Board, when transport must find a buyer), this means that the company does not carry the cost of freight nonarctic tankers, whose rental rates soared. Another advantage is the flights to the Panama Canal. The average price for January on the European spot market is now above 40% or $ 2 / MMBTU than the cost of LNG in the formula with oil indexation, but the cost of transporting LNG from Yamal in January was higher at $ 0.7 / MMBTU in Europe and $ 3, 3 / MMBTU in Asia compared to December 2020, which partially levels the advantage of high prices.
Over time, winter on the whole globe will be launched, in China, probably about 0.2 degrees in a decade until the middle of the century, says the director of the WWF program of Russia "Climate and Energy" Alexey Kokorin. But the strong fluctuations of temperatures will be saved, and the cold winters will also meet, he explains. NOVATEK is building a new large LNG plant in Gydan - Arctic SPG-2, with a capacity of almost 20 million tons, it is assumed that it will only sell half the LNG on the spot market.