In 2019, 26,86 people died in Armenia from all reasons. In 2020 - already 35 371, 35.0% more. The difference between mortality in two close years never gives such sharp jumps without serious shocks. It is called "excessive mortality", and for Armenia last year it reached 9185 people. A huge number - and she needs an explanation.
The first suggestion - a fierce war. Yes, such in the republic really happened, but from her, according to official data at the end of 2020, 2291 citizen died. That is, another 6894 excess deaths are explained by something else. But what?
At first glance, it cannot be coronavirus. Official statistics argue that 3405 people died from COVID-19 - less than half of 6894 excess deaths. What provided the rest?
As can be seen from the table below, in 2020, excess deaths from the diseases of the circulatory system were 2987 (17,056 dead from them in 2020 minus 14,069 in 2019). Jerk at once by 21.2%. For the disease of the respiratory organs, excessive mortality in 2020 amounted to 841 people (3010 minus 2169). Jew for a year - by 38.8%. In sum, the increase in mortality from diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory organs is 3828 people. If you fold them with official care mortality, 7233 people are obtained - even more than 6894.
It is important to understand: the unprecedented increase in mortality from heart attacks and strokes by 21.2% does not happen. Unfinished growth of mortality from the diseases of the respiratory system by 38.8% does not happen even more. In the statistics of Armenia for the XXI century in past years, there are no such jerks.
The reasons for such growth are well understood by the example of many other countries. In Coronavirus 2020, everywhere - from the United States to Russia - statistics shows the increase in mortality from heart disease and vessels, as well as respiratory organs. The reason is that coronavirus, in fact, kills not only pneumonia, as preferred by the statistical authorities of Armenia, Russia and a number of other countries. A significant part of his victims dies from heart attacks or stroke - even if they sick asymptomatic. From the point of view of others, it may look like a sudden heart attack or a stroke in a person who has never had problems with a heart and vessels.
How exactly does it happen? Unlike most cases of conventional ORVI, coronaviruses are spread with blood throughout the body, and do not remain in respiratory organs. Coming in a cage, they begin to force it to reproduce copies of themselves, after which the cell in most cases die. The death of the cells is accompanied by the decomposition of their residues in the body.
As a result, these fragments fall into the bloodstream - together with the proteins of the virus itself. All this causes a very strong inflammatory process in a variety of tissues. At the same time, the level of platelets is growing in the blood, it becomes more prone to coagulation and more viscous. It is more difficult for the heart to pump it, and in the vessels increases the risk of thrombus formation - and the occurrence of stroke.
But this, alas, not the only mechanism. The fact is that coronavirus can still directly infect heart cells - causing inflammation directly in heart fabrics. In this case, it can lead to a heart attack not through the change in blood parameters, but directly.
All these factors will not be visible to the doctor in diagnosing or opening in the event of the patient's death. Any autopsy will show only a typical picture of a heart attack or stroke. And even if a person has a positive PCR test, the doctor will not specify COVID-19 as a cause of death, as it is clear to separate the "infarction from COVID-19" from "just a heart attack" is extremely difficult.
For example, a recent study of American scientists has shown that 75% of the COVID-19 in severe form at MRI shows showed inflammation of the heart tissues, but they did not have any external symptoms from this inflammation. What is important, inflammation does not give its sad fruit instantly: often it can lead to a heart attack when COVID-19 ended. Again, if such a person perceives, the usual heart attack will be visible at the opening, and the PCR test has long been bold, naturally, negative.
Excessive mortality from respiratory diseases in most cases - pneumonia. A number of patients in the later stages of the defeat of the coronavirus of the most causative agent of the disease in the upper respiratory tract no longer, so the PCR cannot detect it. In this case, the died of pneumonia will also be diagnosed as "non-color", although in fact it will die from COVID-19.
Conclusion: Coronavirus is something like sophisticated killers from detective Romanov Agatha Christie. Just like they, he often kills, "spoke" guilt to other diseases. You can die from a heart attack with asymptomatic COVID-19 or a month or two after recovery - simply because inflammatory processes in the heart do not always proceed quickly.
Such problems with diagnostics are characteristic not only for Armenia. In Russia, the understatement of mortality from coronavirus at similar reasons has repeatedly. The gap between excessive mortality, according to Rosstat, and Covelty Mortality, according to Opestaby, more than threefold - that is, much more than in Armenia. It is even nice for the last population: it turns out, local medical statistics are closer to reality.
But there are sad news. In Russia in 2020, mortality exceeded 2019 by only 17.9% - and at the same time it is one of the most affected by the pandemic of the countries of the world. But in Armenia, the mortality of 2020 is 35% higher than in 2019 - and even without taking into account 2291 people who died in war (at the end of 2020), the growth was 26.3%. This means that Armenia suffered extremely much from the epidemic - perhaps most of all in Eurasia, if not in the world.
Why did it happen? The most obvious problem is not very successful actions of local health authorities. They could not explain to society in time the seriousness of the epidemic problem. As a result, the population essentially has not implemented sufficiently strict social distance measures, which led to a sharp mortality rate.
Perhaps it is precisely with this partly associated with the recent retirement of the Minister of Health of Armenia Arsen Torosyan.
The epidemic is stopped, but only temporarily
So, the real coronavirus mortality in 2020 in Armenia is about seven thousand people. This is three times more of her victims from war in Nagorno-Karabakh according to the end of 2020. Although, of course, it should not be noted that among those killed in the war, the average age is noticeably lower. Nevertheless, it is necessary to state: we predicted many months ago a care catastrophe really covered this Transcaucasian republic.
But was this the most disaster ended? It is clear that due to the ruled authorities of the fight against the epidemic, there should be a lot. It is known that he suffered in the first months after the disease is infected quite rarely. Therefore, the failure in the fight against the epidemic creates, over time, the slowdown in the growth of the number of new cases of Kovida. Does Armenia achieve such a slowdown?
According to the experience of other countries, approximately every two-hour sick COVID-19 is dying. If for 2020 the victims of the coronavirus there were seven thousand there, it means that 1.4 million people were silent. Is it enough to stop the further dissemination of the disease?
In theory, standard strains of coronavirus finish actively spread when the immunity from them is formed in 60% of the population. What is the real size of the population relevant in Armenia - it is difficult to determine to reliably.
According to government agencies, we can talk about three million people, however, it is known that in practice many people living abroad. If in fact in Armenia is only 2.5 million people, then 60% of it is 1.5 million people. Then it turns out that only 100 thousand remains until the formation of collective immunity. This may explain why in February 2021 the number of newly identified fees in Armenia went to the decline.
Unfortunately, rejoice somewhat early. The British strain of coronavirus is distributed around the world. Its difference from the standard - in higher contagiousness. Signally speaking, if the usual sick COVID-19 has time to infect two people before he recovers or dies, the patient with the British strain will have time to infect three.
Consequently, the collective immunity to it will be produced by the share of overgrowing among the population no longer at 60%, but in 70-80%. That is, in the case of the spread of "British" in Armenia, the epidemic can get another push, and the British version may be there at any time. After all, the real quarantine of all those who arrive in Armenia is no de facto (as, however, in Russia, and in the overwhelming majority of post-Soviet countries).
If you thought it was an unimportant perspective, then here is another, more unpleasant. The strain of Coronavirus from South Africa showed a very weak binding of antibodies that suffered a basic strain of coronavirus. While it is only laboratory data. And it is not entirely clear whether it means that the "old" COVID-19 has no immunity to "new". But the possibility, definitely, cannot be excluded.
In this case, after hitting the South African strain on the territory of Armenia, the country will receive actually zero immunity - and the whole situation will return a year ago, to the beginning of the epidemic. If the authorities do not begin mass vaccination of the population.
The peculiarity of immunity after vaccination, for example, a two-component "satellite-V" is that, on average, the level of antibodies is higher than that of the overwhelmed. The reason - two injections form an immune response longer than the usual disease occurs in the case of coronavirus infection, and in the end, the immunity itself is "stronger". It is probably more stable. Vaccine developers believe that the drug will protect both British and South African strains of coronavirus. Apparently, this is this: in any case, the heavy form of the satellite satellite should be avoided.
Source: Naked Science