The current week in the domestic foreign exchange market began with strengthening the positions of the national currency. The ruble pushed the dollar below 74 rubles, the euro began to cost 88 rubles cheaper, which was the minimum this year. The head of the Department of Analytical Research "Higher School of Finance Management" Mikhail Kogan believes that this is not the limit, reports the Russian newspaper.
He explained that now we are seeing new records in the energy market against the background of the fact that the situation on the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is unstable.
In addition, OPEC + accepted an unexpected decision and agreed to increase the production only for Russia and Kazakhstan. This happened against the background of the fact that Er-Riyad decided to extend the voluntary decline on a million barrels per day for April. All this led to the oil began to cost more than 5 thousand rubles per barrel, which is higher than 3280 rubles in the budget.
Meanwhile, there is a discharge in the US public debt market, says Kogan.
"Previously, a sharp rise in the yield provoked the weakening of appetites to risk, which, while maintaining the status quo, it could become a barrier to strengthen the ruble," the expert explained.Next week, meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be held. This event, according to the analyst, will pass without surprises. He is confident that the heads of central banks will save the arsenal tools for a more disturbing situation than was observed in February-March.
These factors will lead to the fact that the ruble will show new records against the euro, said Kogan. In the coming days, he said, the euro may fall in price to 87 rubles.
"Attempts are also possible - to implement it in a pair with a dollar, where the maximum from the beginning of the year amounted to a little higher than 73 rubles," the analyst suggested.According to Kogan, if the sanction was not over the ruble, the dollar could cost 65 rubles, and the euro is 77 rubles. Meanwhile, this threat will hold the Russian ruble from a sharp weakening, the expert noted.
"And high oil prices will not give a dollar without resistance to leave above 75 rubles, and the euro - above 90 rubles in their current ratio in the market," the Kogan concluded.