In the next Friday, the next meeting of the directors of the Bank of Russia will be held, where the question of the key rate will be resolved. Financial markets believe that the indicator will remain at the current level - 4.25%. Valery Korneychuk, Associate Professor, teacher of the department of financial disciplines of the Higher School of Finance Management said that it would be further with the rate and price of currency, the Russian Gazette reports.
In favor of maintaining a key rate, inflation says, said expert. He recalled that according to Rosstat, it is still preserved at a level of 5.2% per annum. Another argument is to improve the situation in external financial and commodity markets against the background of expectations of the rapid restoration of the global economy, thanks to the beginning of mass vaccination.
The third factor "for" is the conservation of monetary policy conditions from the last meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The last reason is the growth of economic activity. Experts believe that in normalizing the situation with Coronavirus, the growth of the Russian economy will resume.
Ruble now supports the growing price of Brent oil. Its cost has already overcome a threshold of $ 60 per barrel and continues to rise against the background of the OPEC agreement + and the restoration of China's economy. According to Kornechuk, in the medium term, the price of futures will consolidate within 61-62 dollars per barrel.
Further growth is little possible due to the approximation of the indicator to the cost-effective price of mining of shale oil in the United States. From risks - the possibility of disrupting agreements due to the desire of companies to sell as much as possible at a high price.
If not to take into account such things, in February, the ruble can strengthen up to 73-74 rubles per dollar. But further growth should not be expected due to the budget rule. According to the latter, all budget revenues that arise due to improving the cost of URALS oil to $ 41.6 per barrel, are sent to the purchase of currency, and not on government spending, which presses on the ruble.
"It can be assumed: if not the budget rule, then at the current cost of oil, the ruble exchange rate would be 60 rubles per dollar (April 2018)," the expert stressed.