On Wednesday, February 17, the ruble fell a little more to the US dollar, but in relation to a single European currency began to rise. To the closure of trading on Wednesday, the exchange rate of the dollar to the ruble calculations "for tomorrow" grew by 9 kopecks. (+ 0.13%), up to 73.73 rubles, and the euro rate sensitively fell to the ruble, 53 kopecks. (-0.59%), up to 88.75 rubles.
The dollar is not yet ready to retreat before the ruble, since again went up towards world reserve currencies on the expectations of the approval of the state support package of the US economy. In the minutes of the meeting of the Open Market Markets Committee of January 27, it is said that the regulator will maintain a "adaptable" monetary policy, while inflation in the United States does not reach a level of 2% per year or a little higher. The Fedreve also lay high hopes for vaccination of the US population.
The additional speculative demand for dollars caused a sharp increase in yields within two days on the treasury bonds of the United States (an average of up to 1.3% per annum), although the exact causes of growth are unclear: perhaps one of them could become massive sales of bonds by individual countries, which can be through A few days to cause the fall of the dollar. Well, the Russian ruble in the coming days can support the beginning tax period.
The dollar rate to the ruble today we will again expect in the range of 73-74 rubles, and the euro rate - in the range of 88.5-90 rubles.
Oil market
Oil prices on Wednesday, having a little rested and gaining strength, went in a growing "northern" direction. The price of Brent Brent based on the trading on Wednesday increased by 1.9%, to $ 64.04, updating the next annual maximum and leading to the levels of the first decade of the Preconisian January 2020, and in the meantime, the price of the Barrel of Texas variety WTI took off by 2.5% , up to $ 61.54 per barrel, rising even to the elements of the end of December 2019. Today, in the morning, oil continues smooth, but confident lifting: the price of Brent rises by 0.44%, to $ 64.32 per barrel, and the price of WTI adds 0.24%, growing up to a new annual record at $ 61.69 per barrel.
Global investment banks Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan Chase on the eve of the on the eve of the reviews, which are predicted that in the current year, oil prices can reach $ 80 per barrel, and in a few years they will be able to return even $ 100 per barrel. The main cause of possible growth in global investment banks consider state support for the economy of the G7 countries and including "helicopters". That is, it follows from this that the oil market expects not so much an increase in oil demand on the spot market, how much demand for oil futures as a financial instrument.
Brent price will not rise to a lot of work to rise to $ 65, and from this level in the medium term there will be an increase in demand up to $ 70 per barrel. Today we expect a corridor at a price of Brent at $ 63.8-65 per barrel.
Stock market
In the Russian stock market on Wednesday, "bears". Thus, the Mosbier index fell by 1.67%, to 3436.8 points. And the RTS index fell on Wednesday by 2.16% to 1462.35 points. In the falling market, there were still growth leaders, among whom were again, as early as the day earlier, the depositary receipts of Tinkoff Bank (+ 3.77%), as well as the receipts of the Headhunter group (NASDAQ: HHR) (+ 3.36% ) And "Rusala" (+ 2.64%). The stronger of the market on Wednesday fell shares of Enel Russia (-6.02%) on unfavorable changes in dividend policies for shareholders. Also fell shares of the OGK-2 energy company (-3.4%) and the Metallurgical Corporation "VSMPO-AVISMA" (-3.2%). We predict that today the Mosbierry index will hold auction in the range of 3420-3450 points, and the RTS index will show fluctuations in the range of 1450-1480 points.
Natalia Milchakova, Deputy Director of the Alpari Analytical Department
Read Original Articles on: Investing.com