In Central Bank, Russia considered that at the end of 2020 the Russians began to massively buy currency. So, in November-December, the conversion volume amounted to 4.7 billion dollars. It is believed that this is due to the weakening of the ruble exchange rate, but many analysts are confident that this fact indicates a positive change in the country's economy, "Izvestia" reports.
Director of the Center for Conjunctural Monitoring HSE HSE Georgy Ostapkovich is sure to make any macroeconomic conclusions early, since the volume of purchased currency of $ 5 billion is too small. This amount, according to him, cannot indicate the change in the behavior of citizens. He also noted that at the end of the year the volume of the purchased currency is growing traditionally. This is due to the fact that people receive dividends and other types of payments.
"On the one hand, we can say that the Russians do not trust the ruble, but at the same time there is a positive moment, because people have the money they seek to preserve," Ostapkovich reasoned.According to him, anyway, all means accumulated by the Russians will return to the national market.
Nothing unusualAccording to the conviction of the deputy director of the group of sovereign ratings and predicting the Acre Dmitry Kulikova, the excessive volatility of the ruble rate due to a sharp currency of deposits or cash in 2021 will not happen. The expert is confident that there are more significant changes in expectations regarding the external situation, and this is unlikely in the basic scenario.
In the fact that Russians prefer to keep money in the currency, there is a large share of habit, I am sure of the kelits. However, the situation will change if the ruble will show two-way, and non-unilateral volatility for a long time, up to several years.
The expert also explained that people began to buy currency due to low ruble rates and the preferences of short placement terms. That is why the citizens accumulated a money mass on the hands, which they translate in the currency.
Banks stayed in winningMore active placement of currency liabilities by citizens allows financial institutions to attract resources at a low rate, and this favorably affects the banking system of Russia, the President of the SRO "National Financial Organization" Vasily Zablotsky said.
He called several reasons why people seek to buy currency. This is due to the fear of new sanctions on the part of the United States and Western countries, and also because of the desire to diversify the accumulation, Zaklotsky is sure.
Russians have moneyThe managing partner of the WMT Consult Analytical Agency Ekaterina Kosarev is confident that we can talk about stabilizing the financial situation of the population.
"I think the currency is bought by those who have a financial pillow appeared: the salary in Russia is extremely rarely paid in dollars, for the goods pay almost exclusively by rubles," the expert argues.In addition, people who plan large purchases - housing, cars, and this, according to Cosarean, also a favorable sign.
Meanwhile, the senior analyst of NRA bank ratings Nadezhda Karavaeva is confident that the main factor that spurned people stocking currency is low deposit rates in banks.