Russia represents a threat to all NATO members, consider in the Pentagon, but the United States intends to force it to "respond to reckless and aggressive actions." On February 16, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and said at all that the organization was ready for confrontation with Russia. The tasteless thing is not limited to the verbal manifestation - the Alliance is increasing the military presence among Russian borders. The key direction at the same time is Eastern Europe: the Baltic countries declared the main goal of the hypothetical "Russian aggression". How NATO is going to "defend" the region, appreciated the chief specialist of the Center for Geopolitical Studies of the Baltic Region Institute of Geopolitical and Regional Studies of the Baltic Federal University. I.Kanta Yuri Zverev.
The statement that Russia is preparing and at a convenient case will carry out armed aggression against the Baltic States in order to include them in their composition and, if possible, demonstrate NATO's powerlessness, if she, afraid of a nuclear war, Strection and does not intervene, is a common place in modern Western propaganda rhetoric and Served as an axiom that does not require any evidence. Slightly dropping it was after the adoption of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to the North Atlantic Alliance in 2004, this propaganda campaign broke out with a new force since 2014 after returning to Russia of Crimea and Sevastopol.
This event, which was a direct consequence of an inspired US and the EU of the state coup in Kiev, was not connected with the Baltic, and in militarily, nothing in the Baltic region was not changed. Nevertheless, a convenient reason was found to strengthen and expand the military presence of the United States and NATO there. The leadership of the Baltic countries smoked "Karaul! We are about to attack! ", And NATO led by the United States, of course, immediately" came to the rescue. " Russia, however, did not appear on the war, and the evidence of Russian military pressure on the Baltic States had to be sucking literally from the finger.
But the case is done, and the Baltic region by the US and NATO efforts gradually turns from one of the most civilian regions of Europe with widely developed transboundary and cross-border cooperation between Russia with its neighbors in the principle of "all against Russia" and in the "Powder Barrel of Europe" A la Balkans of the beginning of the last century.
In subsequent years, the issue of organizing the defense of the Baltic states from the "Russian invasion" (whose opportunity was not questioned and not put) became one of the most popular topics in the Western Expert Military Community in relation to the Eastern Flange NATO. It is clear that the genuine NATO plans are secret [1], and it would be strange to expect otherwise. However, the proposals sounded openly (from which I considered only the most definiteness due to the limited volume of publication), it seems to be still given a certain idea of how the United States and NATO are going to act in the Baltic States and which troops and weapons of the Alliance may additionally appear in these States (as well as in neighboring Poland). The material is dedicated to this, the first part of which is represented by your attention.
RAND Corporation Report
In the summer of 2014 and in the spring of 2015, the world-famous American "thought factory" Rand Corporation (Santa Monica, California) conducted modeling (board games on maps) of the Russian invasion of the Baltic countries. The results were disappointing for NATO: in the then the situation, Russian troops reached the suburbs of Riga and (or) Tallinn 36-60 hours after the start of hostilities [2]. Military Games confirmed the previously known weaknesses of the armies of the Baltic states: small number, insufficient maneuverability, the actual lack of armored vehicles (tanks), the lack of artillery and the lack of air defense for use against the goals at high height. The conclusion was concluded that in order to prevent this development of NATO events to seven teams in the Baltic countries, including three heavy, adequately supported by air power, terrestrial artillery fire, air defense and other support units.And not all these forces, according to the authors of the report, should have been advanced based. Thus, when a threatened threat, at least for a week, NATO has time to transfer over the air to the Baltic state of American paratroopers of the 173rd airborne brigade combat group from Italy and the 82nd airborne division from North Carolina, as well as similar Military parts from other NATO countries, including the United Kingdom and France. A mobile anti-tank fire could provide the Rotary Aviation Aviation (Helicopter) US Brigade Based in Germany. In addition, heavy parts with armored vehicles were needed. The report suggested several possible options: to constantly accommodate fully equipped with a friendly and technique of brigade in the Baltic countries; Provide advance warehousing of weapons and equipment in Poland, the Baltic countries or in Germany, and the Personal Area will transfer to the air at an early stage of crisis; Rely on the Rotary Presence or use some combination of the above approaches.
It must be said that the results of the research of the RAND Corporation have undergone enough criticism. So, for example, Latvian author Bens Latkovskis in March 2016 noted that the situation is not so hopeless as shown in the report. He indicated that when modeling was not taken into account or insufficient factors such as the logistics problems of the Russian army, the possibility of blocking the defending major mains and undermining bridges, which will slow down movement on wooded terrain, where many lakes, swamps and rivers, the possibility of using everything The Aviation Capacity of the Alliance (and not only aviation, deployed near the region of hostilities), the arrival of the Baltic States in Eastern Europe of the Polish Army (in the RAND military games, it did not interfere in conflict, moreover, military actions in Lithuania and around the Kaliningrad region in general The models were not considered) and so on.
The author wrote that Russia is not ready to Blitzkrig against the Baltic countries, and although their defense needs to seriously strengthen, even without this, the seizure of these states for the Russian army would not be easy and painless if NATO would have intensified all possible military resources at its disposal .
But, apparently, the task of Rand Corporation was not in an objective military analysis (leave behind the brackets that Russia was not going to seize the Baltic States then and is not going now), but to scare a wide public of an imaginary picture of Russian tanks in the suburbs of Riga or Tallinn 36-60 hours after the start of hostilities. And so that this does not happen, requested the seven additional brigades with the strengthening, which was supposed to do at $ 2.7 billion. Not so much against the background of the US Giant Secondary Budget and NATO Budgets, exceeding then in the aggregate of $ 1 trillion. But, as they say, appetite comes while eating and lich trouble - the beginning.
Report "Filling the Baltic Band NATO"
In May 2016, the International Defense and Security Center (ICDS) Tallinn, Estonia) published a report "Filling the Baltic NATO Ball". His authors were American retired Wesley Clark (Wesley K. Clark), the former NATO Supreme Commander in Europe (SACEUR) (USA); Jüri Luik, Director of the International Defense and Security Center (Estonia) [3]; Hermansky Ramms Ramms Ramms (Egon Ramms), the former commander of the United Armed Forces of NATO in Brynsum; Sir Richard Shirreff (Richard Shirreff), the former Deputy Supreme Commander of the NATO United Armed Forces in Europe (DSaceur). They made a sufficiently large and efficient NATO military contingent in the Baltic countries, believing that this is the only way to guarantee the safety in the face of the conventional [4] threat from Russia. At the same time, it was noted that if you can guarantee the presence of combatory forces on a rotational basis, then the debate relative to the format of presence (rotational or constant) should not go to the fore.
According to the authors of this report, it would be perfectly independent of the deployment of NATO battalions to additionally place in each of the Baltic countries on one NATO brigade. In addition, it was suggested to increase and American troops - at least to one general-time battalion group in each of the Baltic countries.
It was also proposed to replicate to the Baltic countries on a rotational basis, some US marine infantry units from the Black Sea region. It was noted that already in the early stages of the forces of special operations (SOF) will play a significant role in carrying out any operations in the Baltic countries for the suppression of "zones of restriction and reversion of access and maneuver" (A2 / AD), as well as an important role in detecting actions that Russia, as stated, could try to disguise under the guise of "green men" or "rental soldiers".
The Patrol Air Space Patrol Mission Baltic Airplanes Baltic Air Policing was asked to transform into a mission on the defense of airspace with the placement of some additional forces and means in peacetime. The sea was asked to increase the presence of permanent naval groups in the Baltic Sea (SNF). These groups were supposed to include ships capable of applying long-range strikes, as well as having self-defense and countering the Russian zone A2 / AD in the Kaliningrad region.
Strengthening the advanced presence of NATO in the Baltic States
The publication of the results of the RAND study and a number of other reports, as well as the doubts of the Baltic countries in the fact that, in the case of the Russian attack, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty will be enacted [5] led to the fact that on the NATO summit in Warsaw in July 2016 was decided Strengthen the advanced presence of NATO in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland, deploying there on a rotational basis [6] on one multinational battalion. The timing of the stay of battalion combat groups in Poland and the Baltic States are not limited in time. Battalions (combat groups of the enhanced presence of NATO), deployed between January and April 2017, headed US (in Poland), Germany (in Lithuania), Canada (in Latvia) and the United Kingdom (in Estonia).
As of October 2020, the total number of battle groups of the reinforced presence of NATO in the Baltic countries was 3768 people. The groups in the Baltic States and Poland are subject to the NATO North-East Multinational Division (MND-NE) in the Polish city of Elblag. The presence of combat groups is intended, first of all, to calm the leadership of the Baltic countries, that their countries are under the protection of NATO, and secondly, to submit the corresponding signal of Russia.
In essence, servicemen of combat groups act as a kind of hostage. If direct attack occurs on American, German, Canadian, British and other servicemen from the Alliance countries, this guarantees the NATO military response in accordance with Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
However, accommodation in the Baltic States of the battle groups of the reinforced presence of NATO, according to many experts, did not solve military problems marked in the report of the Rand Corporation (future "Russian aggression" at the same time have been publicly proclaimed almost as inevitable as the change of seasons). The fighting capabilities of NATO battalions were and remain limited. They can protect themselves, have certain armored capabilities, and also have the means of air defense radius and (in limited scales) artillery. As he wrote later Dr. Ulrich Kün from the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, these are the so-called "Stretching Forces" (Tripwire Force) - Forces less than that of a potential opponent, whose task is to signal the commitment of the defending party to armed response to future aggression. In case of attack, they must slow down the promotion of the forces of the aggressor, winning the time to mobilize and transfer the additional forces necessary for the counterattack. So, to do in the Baltic States without severe NATO compounds with adequate amplification, it would be unrealistic.
About how the discussion continued to increase the military presence of the United States and NATO in the Baltic States after placing there of NATO battalions - in the second part of the material.
Yuri Zverev, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Chief Specialist of the Center for Geopolitical Studies of the Baltic Region Institute of Geopolitical and Regional Studies of the Baltic Federal University. Immanuel Kanta
[1] The last time plan for the defense of Poland and the Baltic countries, as reported, was introduced by NATO in early July 2020.
[2] For some reason, Lithuania, Belarus and the Kaliningrad region remained outside the simulation. The offensive was carried out only on Estonia and Latvia from the main territory of Russia. For this report was criticized in American military circles.
[3] Now Estonian Defense Minister. Earlier, the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs was held three times and was the permanent representative of Estonia to NATO.
[4] Threats to the use of conventional (non-nuclear) weapons.
[5] The leadership of the Baltic countries feared that in the event of the war with Russia, the population of the leading countries of the North Atlantic Alliance would not want, conventionally speaking, "die for Narva" and the management of these states will leave the Balts without military support, despite their membership in NATO.
[6] With the change of divisions in the combat group every six months.