"Alexander Lukashenko is tired of being president. Coronation is scheduled for Thursday "- this anecdot for ten years, but now he is quite accurate characterizes the plans of the head of Belarus for the future.
In recent months, the version has been widely converted that during the September meeting in Sochi, Alexander Lukashenko promised Vladimir Putin in exchange for political and economic support, which organizes a nationwide dialogue, will hold a constitutional reform and leave the presidency in the foreseeable future.
Officially, such agreements, of course, were not reported, but indirectly their presence can confirm the repeated statements of the Russian president of constitutional reform in Belarus as a way out of the political crisis. Observers also noted that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, a recent meeting with Alexander Lukashenko began with a characteristic statement: "First of all, the lead from Vladimir Vladimirovich. He confirmed everything about what you agreed with him before, and especially your agreements that were achieved in Sochi during your visit. "
However, the National Dialogue of De facto was publicly announced by Alexander Lukashenko, if not considered as such, of course, his visit to political opponents, which are in the detention facility of the KGB. Preparations for constitutional reform are conducted behind closed doors.
Obviously, Lukashenko is not going to give power. But how exactly will it be preserved - there are options.
One of the elements of the updated management system is planned to be made by the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (VNS). This is a forum of supporters of Lukashenko, collected every five years. The procedure for nominating delegates at the VNS is so opaque that in the past any attempts of oppositionists leaving the success there did not have. This body, which is going to make a parrelment, will vote for anything.
And the authorities can be, for example, petitions to Lukashenko with a request not to leave the presidency after making changes to the Constitution, as he himself promised. This option looks too primitive, but it is impossible to reset it with accounts.
It is more likely that specially under Alexander Lukashenko will create the status of the Belarusian Education. Nursultan Nazarbayev's experience is not only studied in Minsk, but also rethinks.
Lukashenko himself partially uncovered the cards. Here are the two of his statements that outlines the nearest political perspectives of Belarus:
"An unfamiliar president cannot give such a constitution. Will be trouble. We have a very serious constitution. Kazakhstan, Russia, we are probably the three advanced states that have such a serious, tough constitution, where everything depends on the decision of the president. From this point of view, realizing that, God forbid, a person will come and wants to unleash some war and so on ... Yes, we need to create a new constitution. "
"The All-Belarusian People's Assembly must be made by the constitutional authority. So that such a body, which would control the main directions of our development ... If we remove some of the duties from the president, they must be transmitted somewhere. In the government and parliament, these powers are not suitable. Where to move them? We must look for such an organ. And we have the All-Belarusian People's Assembly ... you need some body that would have stabilized everyone instantly. And he will speak on behalf of the people, labor collectives. "
So a light movement of the hand of the President's powers are transferred to the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, whose supervisor is becoming Alexander Lukashenko. After that, it formally fulfills the promise and leaves the presidential post. We wanted the power transit - get and lay down!
The problem is that the new Constitution should be accepted through a referendum. But in the present conditions, the authorities of Belarus really do not want to hold another political campaign, expanding the field for the legal activities of opponents. Therefore, it is possible that the new Constitution will decide to take on the same All-Belarusian People's Assembly or through the Supreme Legislative Body - the National Assembly.
Scenarios number 3, 4 and so on are also possible. But any of them will be sharpened under the main goal - the preservation of the absolute power of Alexander Lukashenko.
But these plans have at least one weak place. The leadership of Belarus through repression has achieved a significant reduction in the massability of street shares. However, the protest sentiment themselves did not dissolve.
This clearly demonstrated the visit of the Chairman of the KGB Ivan Trill on Grodno Nitrogen. Employees of the enterprise provided "warm" reception to the chief of the special services: the questions and reactions sounded completely critical, and the applause threw the head of the workshop, said: "What, in your understanding, democracy is this, so you explain that we understand? We understood one thing: do not lead, sit, otherwise you will "lock in the sort".
An attempt to be smooth with the departure of Alexander Lukashenko is able to lead to an explosion of discontent, the consequences of which are difficult to explore. The authorities, however, are also understood and ready to preventively increase the level of national violence. The calm stated in Grodno: "We are preparing for the spring, we know how the situation will develop, we will act rigidly."
Belarus enters 2021 in an extremely uncertain state. The only thing that can be talked with confidence is, in the New Year's speech, Lukashenko will not be given the words: "I'm tired, I'm leaving."
Disclaimer: In this text, the name of the country is used at the ultimate request of the author - Belarus. From the point of view of Russian spelling, Belarus is right, but now this writing has a political context.
The All-Belarusian People's Assembly will be held February 11-12.
The author's opinion may not coincide with the position of the VTIMES edition.