According to the Ministry of Finance, the foreign country debt of the country for 11 months amounted to $ 18.2 billion from the beginning of the year, it increased by $ 1 billion, or by 5.9%. And this is a record indicator in the history of the country. The general government debt towards the country's GDP has already reached 36.2%, another 3.8% - and it will also establish a historical record. What risks amounted to the growth of the public debt?
"The trend towards an increase in the public debt is quite bad," says Vladimir Kovalkin, head of the Koshat Urada project. - For two reasons.
First. More than 97% of the public debt is nominated in foreign currency, and in order for this State Dolg to serve, both the main body and interest, the country needs to be constantly looking for a currency. Increase exports and at the expense of it to pay public debts, take new debts to return old.
It also means that the devaluation will play not on a positive, will not reduce the State Dolg, but only it will increase it: they still have to buy currency, but for more rubles. In the case of devaluation it becomes more difficult to maintain debt nominated in dollars, or in euros, or in any other foreign currency.
The second important point is the cost of debt, that is, percentages on it. For Belarus, the average interest rate is 4.5%, according to Eurobonds - above 6%. This is a very high interest rate for government loans. For the eurozone, it is normal to have a bid according to the public debt below 1%, and for some eurozone countries, the profitability of state biliations is negative. This means that for Belarus, the cost of servicing the public debt can be several times more expensive than for Germany, France or Italy. That is, for such a country, the economy of which is in the best condition.
Very often operate with an indicator percentage of public debt to GDP. But you need to understand that, besides this indicator, there is the very percentage of the public debt. And if Italy can afford 135% of the public debt to GDP with a bond bond by 0.5%, then Belarus already at 35-40% with a rate of 5-6% per annum will be forced to pay relative to the budget for big money as Italy regarding their own budget.
Both problems add up in one big one: the entire public debt, both the main body nominated in foreign currency and very high interest, must be serviced from the state budget. This means that money will not go to the development of education, medicine and social sphere. This money will never see our social sphere.
The third big problem - Belarus constantly has to be reloaded to turn back. In the conditions of a rigid political crisis, the opportunity to occupy in Western markets, in Western states and international organizations is actually absent. The only lender remains - Russia and funds sponsored by Russia. Perhaps another leader of Turkmenistan or Azerbaijan will agree to give money for any of its own interests. Perhaps China will give money. That is, on this loans are limited. In the absence of the ability to refinance the State Dolg, a default may take place. Accordingly, the harder the political situation, the more difficult it is to refinance the State Dolg. The more public debt, the more you need to refinance. Risks are constantly increasing.
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