While the Belarusian opposition is preparing protest activity, in Ukraine again about sanctions against official Minsk. The proposed measures may affect not only officials, but also the Belarusian businessmen seen in pristant views. In addition, in Kiev, they expressed their intention to disconnect the power system from General with Belarus and Russia for 2022 and called Belaes "Threat" and "Geopolitical Project". What is behind these unfriendly steps and to which consequences for Ukrainian-Belarusian relations will lead, in an interview with Eurasia.Expert, the director of the Kiev Center of Political Studies and Conflictology Mikhail Pozrbinsin was predicted.
- On March 11, it became known that the Council of National Security and Defense of Ukraine could impose sanctions against the largest Belarusian officials and entrepreneurs who support Lukashenko regime. What are the Ukrainian authorities like these initiatives?
- There is no information about the fact that the decision has already been made for some kind of Belarusian leaders, but if it is done, I will not be surprised. It will be another step to demonstrate that the Ukrainian authorities in a single rush with the Americans and Europeans condemn Lukashenko regime, do not recognize its president and are going to impose sanctions against those people who are considered to be supporting the dictatorial regime of the Belarusian president. So, nothing surprising in it: this is the result of our movement towards Europe.
- What influence on Belarus can Ukrainian sanctions provide?
- It depends, in fact, from Lukashenko and his team. At least as long as, even though the Ukrainian authorities do not recognize Lukashenko by the president, Ukraine appeals to the Belarusian authorities when you need to additionally get electricity or something else. So now the question is how proud will be Lukashenko. Maybe he will say: "Everything is enough, you are so badly behaving, we are offended, so you don't contact us more." But the fact is that the continuation of trade and economic cooperation is not only in the interests of Ukraine, but also in the interests of Belarus.
Generally speaking, the interests of Ukraine are more expressed in the interests of the ruling team, and they, in general, do not care about what will be with the real Ukrainian national interests, they have their own - how to make the International Monetary Fund, the American Embassy and so on.
So, if the Belarusian president still considers that he does not want to continue to cooperate and refuses - he decided to decisively relate to Lithuania, redirecting the transshipment of petroleum products to Russian ports; But there he did not lose anything, and even on the contrary, he won, because Russia gave a more profitable transport collection, then he would just lose. I think they will consider it there that it is profitable.
- How can participate in the fight against the regime of Lukashenko can affect the economic positions of Ukraine in Belarus?
- It is clear that the positions will weaken. It is clear that the reduction of commodity turnover will be in harm to both countries, and depending on how much and how the power of Lukashenko holds, will degrade the Ukrainian influence on what is happening in Belarus in an economic sense.
- Can, in your opinion, in Belarus, the scenario of the overthrow of power is implemented by analogy with events in Ukraine 2014?
- Does not look like this. There is a decisive president of Lukashenko, unlike the weak and waging the tail of our former President Yanukovych, and there are tough support from Russia until the proposal is to introduce what you need to prevent the coup.
But it is impossible to be confident in anything, because Lukashenko himself is also not a big gift for the Russian Federation.
It seems to me that Moscow arms with his maneuvers simply because she has no choice. If not Lukashenko, then there will be someone who will work not only against the interests of Russia, but also against Belarusian interests in the interests of external managers.
Announced Maria Mamzelkina