On February 11-12, the Allbalorous People's Assembly took place. The forum was to provide a dialogue with the people against the background of a political crisis and denote the directions of reform necessary for its overcoming. In particular, Moscow considered him as part of the initiated by the Minsk process on the change in the constitution. In the end, the participants of the VNS and how the initiatives voiced in his course will affect the policy of Belarus, the director of the Public Association Center for Studying Foreign Policy and Security, Researcher, Researcher, Institute of History of National Academy of Sciences, Denis Bukonkin.
What was said on VNS
On February 12, the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (VNS) was completed, which was declared by the authorities of Belarus as the most large-scale forum of the People's Representation over the past 5 years. This forum has collected a really large number of delegates from different parts of the country. But the selection procedure itself suggests that this event was selected in the overwhelming majority of the loyal power of the people.The forum itself was aimed at discussing the initiatives and proposals of the official Minsk, which at the beginning of the event did not fail to mention the President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. In this regard, the most interesting and informative were speeches of representatives of the current government.
Unfortunately, during VNS, the draft reform of the Constitution proposed by the authorities was not submitted to the authorities, which should be a basic option for a vote on a referendum. Lukashenko limited himself during the presentation to the promise to redistribute the powers and prepare a new version of the Constitution until the end of 2021. Consequently, a referendum on changes to the main law of the country will be able to pass no earlier than in the early 2022, and then, if it is compatible with local elections in January. At the same time, the president was told that Belarus would still remain the presidential republic. At the same time, it was expected to be the proposal to attach the VNS constitutional status as the highest form of national representation. But this wish of the delegates of the congress will remain a wish until the appropriate edits are submitted to the new edition of the Constitution.
So, the most interesting and informative were the performances of the President, Vladimir Makeya's foreign minister, heads of the KGB Ivan Calcher. In addition, there was a place and an unexpected speech by the presidential candidate Anna Kanopatskaya, which was not included in the official broadcast.
Transit power and multi-vector
From the speech of the president, it was possible to know that the transit of power in Belarus is still possible. At the same time, one of its conditions will be the inviolability of supporters of Lukashenko in the event that the alternative political forces come to power. Separately, the head of state focused on the maintenance of Belarusian policies, which, however, has undergone significant changes.
So, it was noted that Belarusians "are invariably ready to build relations with all countries and unions on the basis of the principles of equality, mutual respect, non-interference in internal affairs." According to the president, they are also interested in "have balanced diverse ties with the outside world, first of all economic." At the same time, relations with the European Union are important, with whom Belarus "the longest border and the high degree of interdependence of economic, social, cultural and finally political nature". A no less significant vector for Belarusian diplomacy is the countries of the so-called "long arc", where an important place is "close, despite geography, and friendly" China. At the same time, the main economic partner and the strategic ally "was" Russia.
Questions integration
Relations with Russia were generally dedicated to a separate part of Lukashenko's speech. In particular, the strategic importance of Belarus-Russia relations for the entire region, conservation of stability and peace in it. It is indicated that Belarus advocated and will perform for economic integration in the post-Soviet space both in bilateral and multilateral format.At the same time, it was noted that the Union of Belarus and Russia from cooperation in the EAEU and the CIS is distinguished by deeper integration and other areas, including politics and defense. And now, according to the latest sociological research, more than 70% of Belarusians are integrating with Russia.
At the same time, it is emphasized that the organs created within the framework of the Allied State have not yet worked out their reserve, and therefore they are still early to speak about their reform.
In his report, the head of state affected the economic union theme within the EAEU, noting the importance of achieving the synergistic effect from the formation of a common market. In the interests of Belarus - the creation of a full-fledged Economic Union within the framework of the EAEU: "It is necessary to improve the efficiency of Eurasian construction, it is fundamentally important to achieve a significant, synergistic effect on the formation of a common market and associate the economic potentials of the States parties. Then the EAEU will become more attractive for other partners, and not only in the post-Soviet space. " It was on such a result that the Belarusian chairmanship of the EAP was aimed at 2020, and this line is intended to continue in the future.
As for the Commonwealth of Independent States, then, according to the head of state, despite objective difficulties, it fully retains its relevance as a regional organization. "The key priority of Belarus in the Commonwealth remains unchanged - to develop association as a mechanism of the most profitable economic interaction," said Lukashenko. The chairmanship of Belarus in the CIS is sent to achieving this goal in 2021
According to the president, military and military-technical cooperation with Russia and other CSTO countries will also continue. At the same time, the official Minsk will strengthen the country's defense capability forcing the military-political situation in the Eastern European region.
Lukashenko stressed that in Poland, the Baltic countries on a permanent basis are the NATO multinational forces, there are dozens of military exercises with the development of large contingents of troops from the American continent to Europe. A few weeks ago in Poland even conducted winter staff exercises, during which the future NATO War with the regional grouping of the troops of Russia and Belarus was simulated on computers.
"Using these teachings and that holt, which rose primarily in Poland, they motivate additional allocations for the development of their army in Poland and NATO troops," said the Belarusian leader. As a response, the joint exercises "West 2021" are considered. Announced a change in the concept of national security of the country.
Export and extremism
The statement of the head of the Foreign Ministry of Makeya, which suggested to remove the provision on the desire for neutrality from the future Constitution, was no less interesting. This actually means the rejection of a number of initiatives that should have turned Belarus into a kind of Eastern European analogue of Austria, Switzerland or Finland. The minister also believes that in modern conditions it is advisable to change the export formula according to the third-third principle - a third, when the third supplies fall on Russia and the EAEU markets, the European Union, the countries of the farc. In his opinion, it is necessary to concentrate half of the exports in the EAEU markets, and the remaining half split equally between the EU and the countries of the far arc. At the same time, Makay advocates the preservation of multi-standard as the basic basis of the country's foreign policy.
Separately, it is necessary to turn to the speech of the caller, which as the head of the main special services of the country announced the existence of a number of terrorist groups that are aimed at conducting a number of shares in Belarus. Thus, in the near future it can be expected that new cases will be initiated against the protesters on fairly serious accusations. It is possible that this activity will cool the dust of people going to return to the protest activity in the spring of 2021 at the same time, given the activity of a number of telegram channels, it is likely that this application will be used as an info industry to promote information about "flywheel repressions" and the need provision of additional resistance.
Performances of other delegates and conclusions
Among the speeches of other delegates, the appeal of Yuri Voskresensky attracted unconditional attention. He was quite expected to offer an amnesty to all repentant political prisoners. However, the fact of repentance, apparently, means appealing to the president with a request for pardon, and the actual ban on any political activities in the country. In addition, it is proposed to call one of the squares in honor of Russia, thus appreciating its contribution to the preservation of statehood and independence of Belarus.
In the rest of the delegates, the delegates were not polemic, and rather a loyalist character in relation to the current power and focused on issues on which a decision was either already taken, or the opinion of the speaker is not much dispelled with the official position.
This may be the main danger for official Minsk, as this may have the impression of the lack of serious alternative positions on one or another issues, or unanimity in society regarding the support of the current policy. At the moment, many polls, on the contrary, indicate a significant division of society and its polarization. The evidence of this can serve, including the fact that, according to the survey ordered to VNS, less than half of the population supports the initiative of the president to give the meeting of constitutional status.
The absence of a serious discussion and controversy can act soothing to power, but not reflect the real status of a particular problem for the Belarusian society. In general, VNS fulfilled its function and became a kind of response to opposition actions abroad. That is why, apparently, the EU managed to officially state that he does not consider a meeting as an official body and its solutions have no official strength and legitimacy.
On the other hand, the resolution of ANS is not mandatory for execution, and the meeting itself does not have a constitutional status at the moment. Therefore, to expect some dramatic changes to its results would probably be too naive.
Denis Bonkin, Researcher of the Institute of History of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Director of Public Association "Center for External Policy and Security"