The ruble rate towards the dollar and the euro is likely to be strengthened, told the head of Cryptonisation.ru Alexander Zyl in a conversation with Bankiros.ru. And this will be facilitated by several factors at once:
- 1. Growing oil prices. The price of Brent brand has recently exceeded $ 60 per barrel for the first time since January 2020.
- 2. Fixed inflation, which is higher than forecasts. Accordingly, the Central Bank will adhere to a more rigid monetary policy.
- 3. Payment of quarterly taxes. Payments that will come to March will contribute to the conversion of currency to the ruble to pay taxes, duties and excise taxes.
These factors will support the course of the Russian currency. Plus the political instability, which is caused by the arrest of Alexei Navalny, is slightly coming to no. After a local weakening in the area 76, the ruble is restored.
Today, the ruble exchange rate, of course, depends on oil prices, but no longer as much as 10-20 years ago. The economy of the Russian Federation has become more diversified, the tax rule was introduced, and the ruble exchange rate was taken away from oil prices. A substantial stabilization background levels local oil drawdowns.
If oil costs $ 20 per barrel for a long time (from year to year), then of course it will negatively affect the economy and lead to the weakening of the ruble. Short-term falling of the cost of oil (up to several months) will not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.
With the cost of oil 80 dollars per barrel, the situation will not change much. Significant ruble will not be strengthened. The stabilization fund will send large reserves and global volatility only due to oil prices will not occur, since the main macroeconomic factors, such as industrial production, inflation, labor market, and the monetary policy of the Central Bank are dominant in relation to the oil course.
Now essentially, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation fully affect the course of the currency, that is, he is completely controlled. Potentially up to 40 rubles per dollar can strengthen it, but this will lead to an increase in labor costs and will have a strong pressure on the industrial sector, it will impede the exports of goods that will become more expensive in terms of foreign currency, and, of course, it will damage the economy. .
Any strengthening of the ruble will lead to the rise in the cost of goods and services and will not pass without prejudice to the economy.