In the weekly review of the experts of the Center for Agricalitics of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation of March 10, there are growing concerns about the state of Russian wintering due to protracted spring. Wintering conditions of wheat under the crop 2021 continue to affect the market.
According to Roshydromet, at the beginning of March, the proportion of bad and unbelievable crops of winter crops decreased to 7-9% against 22% in November 2020. However, this indicator remained much worse than in March 2020, when it was 4%.
But France was lucky this year: the state of sowing of winter wheat for the week improved, it remains much better than last year and is the most good in four years. By March 1, the proportion of winter wheat in good and excellent condition in France was 88% (+1 p. Per week and +24 pp. At the level of last year), and the winter barley - 84% (+1 p. P . and +19 p. p.).
Cereals with a margin
In the March report, USDA predicts the growth of the global barley harvest by 1.8% compared with the last season, corn - almost 1.8%, wheat - by 1.7%.
Despite the increase in consumption assessment, USDA still expects that the final stocks of wheat will increase compared with the level of last season by 0.3%, barley - by 1.6%, and corn - decrease by 5.1%.
USDA predicts gross wheat collection in the world in the season 2020/2 21 at a record level - almost 776.8 million tons, which is 12.9 million tons higher than in the 2019/20 season. At the same time, the USDA expects that global wheat consumption will be below gross collection, which will lead to an increase in the final reserves of this culture before a record level - 301.2 million tons (+0.9 million tons to season 2019/20).
USDA also predicts a record corn harvest in the world - over 1,136 million tons (+19.8 million tons). At the same time, the agency expects the world consumption of corn more gross collection, which will lead to a decrease in the finite reserves of corn to a six-year-old minimum - 287.7 million tons (-15.5 million tons).
The gross barley collection in the world, according to USDA, will increase almost to 159.5 million tons (+2.9 million tons to the past season). Growth of world demand is expected below gross collection. As a result, USDA predicts the growth of the finite stocks of barley to a four-year maximum - 20.3 million tons (+0.3 million tons).
Recall that despite the record high exports, wheat stocks in Russia much exceed internal needs. By February 1, 2021, wheat stocks in agricultural organizations became the second in history and inferior only to the indicator on February 1, 2018.
The increase in the export Russian duty on grain will help reduce the price of the inner roar. Export prices will grow, and foreign supplies will fall.
According to the "Center for Agroanalytics", the uncertainty factor are the procurement plants of grain with major importing countries. Against the background of increasing the incidence of COVID-19, they can increase import volumes to create insane stocks of grain, fearing possible failures in supply chains. In case of deterioration of agrometeorological conditions, demand will grow even more. This may lead to the preservation of price increase trends, despite the more than a sufficient level of grain supply in the world market. However, even at the same time, the development of events after time, global demand will decline and prices will fall.
(Source: Specagro.ru).