One of the most popular publications among German foreign policy experts today - a book-released 34 years ago, where you can find the keys to the decision of the most painful question, overshadizing diplomatic relations between Germany and the United States.
This book, "an ally against an ally: America, Europe and a crisis around the Siberian pipeline," was written in 1987 a little known as a lawyer's student. Her author is Anthony Blinken. Which is now headed by the US State Department.
In his book, Blinken analyzes the scandal that has broken down between the United States and the European Union in the early 1980s. Because of the new pipeline, in which the USSR assumed to supply gas to Europe from its Siberian fields. In 1981, the administration of Ronald Reagan imposed sanctions to this project by provoking one of the most acute crises in transatlantic relations during the Cold War.
Now the story seems to be repeated. Russia is paving the Nord Stream - 2 gas pipeline, and the United States again imposed sanctions on him, arguing that it increases the dependence of Europe from Russian energy resources. As in 1981, the gas pipeline became an apple of discord, and German politicians accuse the United States in the fact that they are "economic war" against a close ally.
Frames impact on MoscowNow experts in Berlin hope that with the arrival of Blinken in the US State Department will change their attitude to the "Northern Flow" and the conflict will be resolved. In the end, in the book of the current head of the American foreign policy department, it was said that for Washington it is more important to take care of their allies than to dictate to them how to build economic relations with Moscow.
Andreas Nick, deputy of the Bundestag from the ruling party of the Christian-Democratic Union (XDS), is one of those who encourages the approach described in the book. "I had the impression that [Blinken] does not consider sanctions with the right way to interact with anyone from the Allies, and we trust him," said Nick.
The German government is now looking for creative approaches to resolving this situation, which could be offered by the Joe Bayden administration to convince US to remove the sanctions. One of the ideas under consideration is the creation of a mechanism that would allow Germany to overlap the supply of "Northern Flow - 2", if Russia has pressure on Ukraine, for example, arbitrarily limiting the supply through its gas transmission system.
Some German politicians insist that such a mechanism, if it succeeds in agreeing, will even strengthen the position of the European Union in relations with Moscow. "After the" Nord Stream - 2 "is completed, we must have an option to stop gas supplies when we may find it necessary. In this case, you can get a completely different lever of influence on Russia, "says Nick.
True, there are difficulties with the determination of the conditions for the application of such a mechanism. German officials want to make decisions on their own. American prefer to formulate the conditions whose violations automatically turn on the mechanism. They also say that Ukraine should participate in the discussion of these issues.
In addition, legal difficulties may arise. "Northern Stream - 2" can file a lawsuit against the German authorities if they interrupt gas supplies. The representative of the project refused comment.
Another idea discussed in Germany is to introduce a moratorium on the beginning of the operation of the Northern Flow - 2, while Russia does not show good will in important issues. "It is necessary to determine the beginning of its work by changing the behavior by Russia - for example, the liberation of [Alexey] Navalny or moving in the East of Ukraine," says Nils Schmidt, a press secretary for foreign policy issues of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (enters the coalition with XDS).
"Death from thousands of injuries"While in Berlin is looking for options for solving the problem, there were signs that the administration of Byyden is ready to reduce the glow of passions around it. Blinken demonstrated openness to the ability to reduce the sanction to a minimum, two people were told about his position. The representative of the State Department refused comment, but stressed that sanctions are just one tool in this matter.
The problem for those who would like to achieve agreement is that the Democrats and Republicans are held a tough position in the United States in relation to the "Northern Flow". Congressmen voted for expanding sanctational legislation this year.
"The administrations of Byyden will have to confront a congress in which both parties support sanctions in order to kill" Northern Flow - 2, "said the former US ambassador to Poland Daniel Freyd, who also answered the State Department for the implementation of sanctions at Barack Obama. "She will not want to look like it as if she took up a soft position in relation to Putin, especially now."
The probability of a slow weakening of sanctions by the State Department has already provoked criticism from the Congress. Two high-ranking members of the Senate Committee on International Relations last Friday wrote Bidenu that "concerned" the ability to cancel sanctions, and called on to provide a submission of February 16 of the report in which organizations must be called "actively participating" in the construction of the gas pipeline and to be punished according to the US law .
Biden himself always expressed with disapproval about the "Northern Stream - 2", calling him during the presidential campaign, and after the election "bad deal for Europe." Back in 2016, being a vice-president at Obama, he expressed his disagreement with the project during a trip to Europe. According to the former official of the Obama administration, the US approach was always to prevent the completion of the project (he called such a strategy "death from thousands of injuries").
Reason for optimismThis attitude to the "Northern Flow - 2" did not undergo major changes after Biden joined the White House. The project "shares Europe, makes it and Eastern Europe affected by the manipulation by Russia, there is a controversy with the Objective and Security and Security Objectives announced by Europe," said the representative of the State Department last week.
At the same time, it is obvious that the new administration wants to reconcile with Berlin. In Washington, Germany is considered an extremely important ally in everything, ranging from countering China and negotiations with Iran and ending with the struggle with climate change. The solution of the problem related to the "Nord Stream - 2" will allow countries to close to issues in which they have joint interests.
It is for this that they hope in Germany. The Germans are looking for reasons for optimism in history. Indeed, in 1982, the Reagan administration ultimately turned out the sanctions against the Soviet gas pipeline after high-profile protests from European countries.
"The Europeans perceived by the Embargo [introduced by Reagan] as unbearable humiliation, because, from their point of view, it is unfortunately approved the right of the United States to conduct trade and foreign policy for its allies, they like it or not," the Blinken wrote in his book.
Translated Mikhail Overchenko