For five years, the number of cash in their hands in the population can grow by 19.4%. Such a forecast was published by the Central Bank of Russia, RBC reports.
By 2026, in the hands of citizens there will be at least 13.6-16 trillion rubles, counted the Central Bank. This growth will be inevitable because of the "Cash Paradox", celebrate there. This process is characterized as follows: the volume of banknotes and coins in the hands of the population and business increases simultaneously with the growth of non-cash operations, said the deputy chairman of the Central Bank Mikhail Alekseev.
Last year, against the background of a crisis caused by coronavirus, cash outflows reached the record for ten years, and the growth rate was 5.6 times higher than in previous few years.
As Alekseyev noted, some of these money will gradually return back to the Central Bank's cash register, but then the outflow will resume and in five years in cash will become more than now.
According to the deputy chairman of the Central Bank, the achievement of the upper or lower limit of the forecast range will depend on the pace of restoration of the economy and how active the population will return money to the banks seized at the peek of the pandemic.
"The incentive to return funds will be an increase in deposits and deposits rates, as citizens want to receive greater income," Alexseev explained. Will Russians raise money in banks?According to the director of bank ratings, Konstantin Borodulin, most likely, the moderate scenario of the Central Bank will come true. The growth of banknotes in the hands of citizens will contribute to the introduction of personal income tax on interest on major deposits, as well as the expansion of the powers of the tax service, which has gained access to banking secrecy.
In March, the Central Bank has raised a key rate by 0.25 percentage points - from 4.25 to 4.5%. Some experts are confident that the profitability of contributions for individuals will grow.
According to the head of the Center for the Development of the Gazprombank Strategy of Egor Susin, this will happen if the Central Bank will raise a key rate at a level of 5-6%.
"But it will rather be a local adjustment, which will only limit the growth rates of cash, but will not reset them," the expert said.According to Sushin, the return of cash to the system will also depend on whether the business will want to whitewash part of the operations translated into the gray zone during the pandemic.