The Central Bank tightens rhetoric on the eve of the DCT meeting on March 19, reports InBusiness.kz with reference to AFK.KZ.
CURRENCY MARKET
Against the background of further improvement in the situation in the National Oil Market, there was a positive dynamics in a pair with the US dollar. According to the results of trading, Thursday, the weighted average rate for a pair of USDKZT dropped to a mark of 419.12 tenge per dollar (-1.46 tenge). At the same time, the volume of auction amounted to 95.7 million dollars in comparison with $ 82.6 million on Wednesday. We note a certain decline in the dollar at KASE occurred against the background of the rise in prices in the hydrocarbon market and contrary to the negative dynamics of the Russian ruble during the KASE session.
Diagram 1. USDKZT course:
Source: KASE.
MONEY MARKET
Indicative money market rates on Thursday demonstrated a versatile dynamics (Tonia rose from 9.20% to 9.45%, SWAP decreased from 9.0% to 8.64%). At the same time, at the Deposit Auction on Thursday, the National Bank attracted the average liquidity amount of 166.0 billion tenge under 9.00% per annum (100% of demand). Note, an open position on the operations of the NBRK is held near a record level of 5.0 trillion tenge debt to the market. Obviously, the current situation has to active investment in tenge tools.
STOCK MARKET
On Thursday, the KASE index demonstrated a neutral dynamic, closing at the mark of 2960.91 points (-0.04%). The growth of Kaz Minerals shares (+ 2.9%) was inserted by a decrease in the equity instruments of Kazakhtelecom (-1.4%), Kazatomprom (-0.7%), Kcell (-0.7%) and the People's Bank (-0.7 %). Investors were probably played by previous negative trends in world stock and commodity markets. From the upcoming events, we note the publication of the consolidated financial statements of the People's Bank for 2020 (15.03).
WORLD MARKET
The main stock indices of the United States at the end of Thursday demonstrated growth (within 0.6-2.5%) against the background of weakening concerns about accelerating inflation, as well as expectations for the restoration of the US labor market in the light of the data output on applications for unemployment allowance, the approval of the next Pack of help economy. Thus, the number of primary applications decreased to 712 thousand in comparison with 754 thousand, earlier, which indicates the improvement of the situation in the labor market following the decrease in the number of COVID-19 diseases. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden signed a 1.9 trillion economic assistance package.
"This historical legislative initiative is aimed at restoring the main rod of this country," said Biden.
From other events of Thursday, we note that the ECB in accordance with the market expectations retained the basic interest rate on loans at the zero level, announced its intention to speed up the bond redemption under the assets of the assets (rherr). At a press conference, the head of the ECB Christine Lagard reported that the key rates will remain at the current levels or below until inflation be confidently approach the target level (2%). The regulator has improved the eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 4% from 3.9%.
OIL
Against the background of the publication of the OPEC report and improve the prospects for the World Economy in the light of the adoption of a new US economy package, Brent prices have demonstrated positive dynamics on Thursday, reaching $ 69.5 per barrel (+ 2.4%). In the March report, OPEC notes that the global demand for oil in 2021 will grow by 5.9 million b / s, up to 96.3 million b / s, due to the revival of the global economy in the afternoon.
"In the first half of 2021, the demand for oil will be lower in connection with the extension of restrictive measures due to coronavirus in many parts of Europe," they say in OPEC.
RUSSIAN RUBLE
The Russian ruble on Thursday continued the revaluation movement against the background of a sharply improving consumer market situation and improving the appetite to risk in world markets. According to the results of trading Thursday, the course of the USDRUB pair decreased by 0.41%, to 73.3 rubles per dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia does not exclude the enhancement of the key rate in 2021, everything will depend on the incoming data, the Chairman of the CBRF Elvira Nabiullina said.
"The Central Bank sees a possible transition to a neutral rate of 5-6% during the forecast horizon of 2021-2023," added Nabiullin.