Izizathu ezintathu zokukhula okungalingani kwezimakethe ngo-2021

Anonim

Ama-indices e-Exchange yezomnotho ezithuthukile ku-PLUS ngoLwesithathu, i-ETF enkulu ezimakethe ezifufusayo iqophe inzuzo elinganiselayo lemali. Inkulumo kaJanet Yellen ngaphambi kokungena esikhundleni seNhloko yoMnyango Wezezimali, i-United States isiphenduke isiqinisekiso sokuthi inqubomgomo yezimali yase-US ngeke iqhubeke kuphela endleleni encane, kodwa futhi ingakhuphuka. Okufanelekela kuphela ibinzana lelenth ukuthi "manje akufanelekile ukukhathazeka ngesikweletu somphakathi futhi ugxile ekulweni nalesi sifo." Kucace bha ukuthi ngenkathi inzalo ilinganisa ubuncane obunomlando, i-United States ifuna ukusebenzisa lelo thuba futhi ilungiselela izindlela ezintsha zokuxhasa umnotho. Umsebenzi ukuthola ukuthi, "Obani abazodinga idili."

I-SPX yengeze i-13% kusukela ngesikhathi sokhetho lukamongameli e-United States, futhi ngalesi sikhathi sokukhula, imakethe ebanzi inakekele umgomo wokugoma, kanye nokubuyiselwa komnotho ngo-2021. Manje ukukhula kwemakethe kufanele kube umfaniswano omncane, futhi Abatshalizimali bakhethe ngokwengeziwe. Kunezizathu eziningana zalokhu. Okokuqala, kancane kancane iSivumelwano sakhiwa kancane ukuthi ukukhushulwa kokukhula kokukhula, futhi amathemba okukhula kwawo anqunyelwe noma ukulungiswa kulindele. Inani lemali elindelwe yisabelo ngasinye sokukhula kanye namasheya abizwe ahlukaniswe ngehlukaniswe ngo-2020 futhi angama-29.1 okuqala no-17.1 okwedlule. Leli yigebe elikhulu emashumini amabili eminyaka, elibonisa ukuthi abatshalizimali baqongelele ukuwohloka okukhulu kokuncamelayo kusukela ekuweni kwamachashazi:

Izizathu ezintathu zokukhula okungalingani kwezimakethe ngo-2021 9162_1
Phambili P / E Divergence

Okwesibili, kulindeleke ukuthi amasheya wesitoko, okuyinto enkulu efaka amasheya, izindleko ezilandelwa ukuguquguquka komjikelezo webhizinisi zizophela esigabeni esizayo sezomnotho (okuyinto, ngeshwa, izohlala isikhathi eside ). Ngemuva kokukhipha uhlelo lwe- "Insindiso" ye-America kusuka ekuphathweni okusha, ama-Goldman Sachs angezelelwa ama-2 pp ekukhuleni okulindelekile kwe-US GDP futhi abikezela ngo-6.6%. I-NY FED nayo isanda kuthuthukisa ukubikezela kokukhula komnotho ku-6.2%, kususelwa kwidatha yakamuva:

Izizathu ezintathu zokukhula okungalingani kwezimakethe ngo-2021 9162_2
Ny fed forecast.

Izimakethe mhlawumbe azikabalelwanga ngokuphelele kulo mfutho wokunyuka kwezomnotho.

Okwesithathu, izindlela zokusekelwa zabaphathi abasha zizogxila emikhakheni ethembisayo ezobe yizomnotho ngekusasa. Iphinde ivume indlela yokhetho lokutshala imali futhi igxile ezinkampanini ezivela kuleyo mikhakha uhulumeni ezokhombisa ngayo umusa. Uhlelo lwenguquko luhlanganisa ukukhulisa imali ekunakekelweni kwezempilo kanye nasemandleni aluhlaza, okubandakanya ukuguqulwa kwezimoto zikagesi, okufanele kunikeze ama-oda alezi zinkampani njengama-motor (NYSE: GM) neTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

U-Arthur Idiatitin, umkhandla weMakethe wase-UK

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