Umnotho
Umnotho waseRussia weza e-coronacrisis ngesimo esihle kakhulu, esivumela isikhathi sokuhlukaniswa ngaphandle kwezinkinga ezikhethekile ezingeni le-macro, kanye nokuxhasa ngezimali izindlela ezidingekayo zokusekelwa. Ngasikhathi sinye, uhulumeni waseRussia wasebenza wavinjelwa, owavezwa ngenani elilinganiselwe kakhulu lezindleko ezengeziwe zesabelomali. Ngenxa yalokhu, ukusilela kwesabelomali emiphumeleni yakwa-2020 kwavela ukuthi kube mncane uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe. Lokhu kubuye kwavuselelwa yiqiniso lokuthi ukwehla kwe-GDP bekulindelwe okuncane, kubandakanya ngenxa yezimpawu zokwakheka komnotho waseRussia (isabelo esiphansi somkhakha wezinsizakalo, esinamandla kuneminye imikhawulo yedwa) kanye nendlela evumelana nezimo ezithile ukusetshenziswa kwemikhawulo yedwa.
Umthwalo omude ukhuphuke kakhulu, kepha wahlala ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu, futhi amathuluzi wesikweletu weRussia Federation agcina isimo sempahla evikelayo phakathi kwawo. Izinkinga ezithile zokusebenzisa noma ukukhokha isikweletu seRussia Federation zingamelwa kuphela uma kwenzeka kumiswa imikhawulo yezobuchwepheshe ezingenakunqotshwa (ama-super-resetions), ezinye izinketho ezingokoqobo zokwakha izehlakalo ezizoholela ezikweletini zaseRussia esikhathini esizayo esibonakalayo esizayo esizayo , woza ube nzima kakhulu.
Izilinganiso zesikweletu ezivela kuzo zonke izinhlaka ezintathu zamazwe omhlaba zisezingeni lokutshala imali, isibikezelo sizinzile. Izingozi Zemakethe ezihambisana nomsebenzi waseRussia waseRussia zilinganiselwa kakhulu. Esikhathini esibukhali sokudonswa kwemakethe, ama-eurobonds aseRussia alungiswa kakhulu kunezinye izingxenye zemakethe yomhlaba yama-eurobonds ama-eurobonds athuthukayo emazweni asathuthuka.
Umkhakha Wezinhlangano
Inani eliphelele lezindlela zezimali ezabelwe uhulumeni ukulwa nemiphumela ye-covid-19 yobhubhane ngo-2020 kulinganiselwa ku-3.5-4.5% we-GDP. Amavolumu anesizotha ngamazinga akwamanye amazwe, futhi ukusekelwa kwabhekiswa, kepha
Ngokusobala, yafinyelela ezinhlosweni ezithile.
Ukuvuselelwa kwamanani entengo kawoyela kube nomthelela omuhle ekuhlolweni isimo sempahla yezomnotho nezenkolo. Ithemba lifaka ukuvela kokugoma okuningana kwe-Covid-19.
Ingozi ethile ihlala iqinisa ingcindezi yokuxhumana eRussia ngemuva kokunqoba kweDemocrat Joe Bayden okhethweni lukaMongameli e-United States. Kodwa-ke, ukuze uthole ukusabela okukhulu emakethe, unswinyo kufanele lube luphawu kakhulu, olungaphezu kohlaka lwemikhawulo yomuntu.
Amamethrikhi wekhredithi eMbusi
Amamethrikhi e-Russian Movility Detory ngisho nasemimweni ye-coronacrisis ayibangeli eminye imibuzo. Uhulumeni waseRussia wanamathela kwinqubomgomo enzima yezezimali kanye nenqubomgomo yezimali, ngenkathi egcina imali ye-ruble ye-ruble ohlelweni lwasebhange. Inhlanganisela enjalo ayizange ivumele ukuba iqoqe izingozi ezihlelekile emnothweni, futhi ithonya lazo ngalesi simo ngesikhathi sokuvalwa kwezivaliwayo alizwakali. Yize uhulumeni bekufanele athambise kakhulu isikhundla sakhe, ekhulisa izindleko zesabelomali, futhi i-Central Bank of the Russian Federation inciphise ibhidi elingukhiye futhi likugcine ezingeni eliphansi ngisho nasezimweni zokusheshisa ukwehla kwamandla emali, lezi zinyathelo azithathwa njenge Ushintsho endaweni eyinhloko kwinqubomgomo yezimali neyezimali.
Ukubikezela kokushintsha kwamamethrikhi aseMpulikazi: I-HORT
• Ngenxa yango-2020, ukusilela kwesabelomali kunesizotha kunamanye amazwe athuthukayo (bheka 3)
• Umthwalo omude maqondana ne-GDP esondela ku-18% inani eliphansi kakhulu. Umthombo oyinhloko wokuxhaswa ngezimali kokushoda - Isikweletu se-RUBE (ofz), kanye nesabelo sengonyama ngo-2020 satholwa yizakhamizi. Ukubekwa kwezibopho zesikweletu ezikhululekile ngemali yakwamanye amazwe kwakuyi-Episodic.
• Isakhiwo sezezimali sezikweletu siyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka ngokwanda kwesabelo sezikweletu ze-ruble, isabelo sazo sikhuphuke saya ku-78.3% (cm, 2). Ubukhulu bezezimali ezibusayo ezihlobene ne-GDP yi-3.5% kuphela - amazinga aphansi kakhulu amazwe asathuthuka.
• Isheduli yokukhokha inethezekile kakhulu, lonke iMbusi futhi izibopho zemali ezihlanganisiwe zimbozwe ngezimali zokushintshaniswa kwangaphandle (bheka 1)
• I-akhawunti yamanje yokusebenza ngo-2020 yehle, kepha isizathu esiyinhloko kwakuyizintengo eziphansi zamafutha nezibopho ezithathwa ngaphansi kwe-OPEC + ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa.
Umkhakha weBanking kanye nomkhakha wenhlangano
• I-Central Bank of the Russian Federation Kusukela ngoJulayi 2019 kwaqala ukunciphisa ngokuhlelekile inani eliphambili kusuka ku-785% ngokumelene nesizinda sokwehliswa kwezingozi zokwehla, kanye nemicimbi yentwasahlobo yonyaka odlule yaphoqeleka ukuba yenze kahle. Ngomhlangano kaJulayi, inani elisemqoka lancishiswa libe ngu-4.25%, ngemuva kwalokho uMlawuli athathe isikhashana ngemuva kokusheshiswa kokunye ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ngokwemiphumela ka-2020, inani elisemqoka lalingaphansi kwamanani emali okokuqala kusukela ngo-2014 (bheka 1).
• Inkomba ye-PMI ecubungula imboni iphansi kancane kunamaphuzu angama-50, cishe lapho, lapho yayiphambi kwe-coronacrisis. Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni uqobo, njengoba kunjalo, futhi ukuthengiswa kwezitolo kwabuyiselwa kuphela ngokwengxenye. Kodwa-ke, kucatshangelwa ukuncishiswa kokuqina kwemikhawulo, kulindeleke ukuthi kube lula ukubuyiselwa kwemisebenzi yebhizinisi (bheka 2).
• Isilinganiso sesikweletu seNet sezinkampani ku-EBITDA ngezansi kwe-1X, esibonisa izinga eliphansi lomthwalo wesikweletu, ngisho naphezu kokukhula komkhakha webhange kanye nokuthuthuka komkhakha webhange kanye nokuthuthuka okujwayelekile kwesimo sezinkinga ezinkulu Ngalesi sikweletu sisonke, umnotho uhlala uphansi (bheka 3).
• Umkhakha webhange uveziwe impela. Isilinganiso se-capital aEquecy singu-12.7% ngoSepthemba 2020, okuyinani elinethezekile (izinga eliphansi eliphephile leBasel-III libhekwa njenge-10.5%).
• Izinga lemalimboleko yezinkinga zomkhakha webhange laseRussia liyakhula futhi lisezingeni le-9.3%, okuyizinga eliphakeme lezimakethe ezivelayo, kepha inani eliphansi leminyaka engu-5 edlule. Inani lezimali ezifakiwe lingaba ngu-13.8% wenhloko-dolobha, ezibandakanya umthelela omubi olinganiselwe enhloko-dolobha yamabhange ngokubhala okuthe xaxa kwesikweletu senkinga (bheka 4).
Ukubikezela kwezinguquko kumamethrikhi ezikweletu emikhakheni yenhlangano neyasebhange: ezinzile.
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