Ukuthengiswa okukhulu kwegolide sekuqediwe?
Ngihlushwe nalo mbuzo, yize ubufakazi bukhombisa ukuthi akufanele kube khona imibuzo, ikakhulukazi manje, lapho kulindeleke ukuthi kube nokuphathwa kwemali, okuthe xaxa kwesabelomali.
Kubantu abaziyo kubuciko bokunciphisa amathuba emali, izehlakalo ezenzeka emasontweni amabili edlule bekufanele, zikubeke ngobumnene, zibangele ukukhathazeka. Igolide, elinye lempahla ephephe kunazo zonke ngesikhathi sezinkinga eziningi, zombili ezomnotho nakwezepolitiki, ezilahlekile u-3.5% phakathi kwamaviki amabili kabhande kaNovemba.
Kanti ukunqotshwa kwenyanga emibili edlule kwakuwukusabela okuqondakala ngokuphelele kuma-Passion, okuvela emakethe ngemuva kokuvela komoya kusuka kwi-Covid-19, ukuthengiswa okukhulu kokugcina kubukeka kusolwa kusukela ekuqaleni, kanti nesikhathi sawo sasingabaza.
Amawayini wokubuthakathaka kwezikhundla zegolide emasontweni amabili edlule agcinwe kakhulu ekuvunweni kwamabhondi ase-US, okungukuthi, abashayeli bezindiza abayi-10. Lapho ucezu lokugcina lwe-stallional mosaic - senate - ekugcineni kwaba ngentando yeningi, okuvumela i-bideno kaMongameli yesikhathi esizayo ukuthi isebenzise imali yakhe yokhetho empilweni, kungalethi imali yegolide, ngokumangazayo, yaqala ukulahlekelwa izibopho zeminyaka eyi-10.
Ezimakethe, noma yisiphi isenzo, yize kuningi kangakanani, kuyachazwa futhi kuthethelelayo. Kwenzeka futhi ngesivuno kuma-bond.
Abahwebi balindele amanani aphezulu ngenxa yokuvuselelwa kwezomnotho okuzayo, okungabheja umnotho, imakethe yezabasebenzi futhi, ekugcineni, ukukhula komholo. Ngokuphazima kweso, amabhondi anenzuzo, idola kanye ne-bitcoin, kepha hhayi igolide - umshuwalense onokwethenjelwa ngokumelene nokwenyuka kwamanani emali, uthole inzuzo enkulu evela kuma-bidenov trillions.
Akukhathalekile ukuthi phakathi nesonto, lapho isivuno sicishe saphindeka kabili, abameleli bohlelo lwe-Federal Reserve System bakwenqatshele ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi umnotho noma ukukhula komholo kungaphikelela kakhulu ukuze kunikezwe ukwehla noma ukukhulisa amanani enzalo zisondele ku-zero. Abahwebi beBond ababuyi ukuthi babuyisele imishanguzo yabathengisi bondlayo, kanye ne-forex, isethulo senani eliphansi ledola ngenxa yokuthengiswa kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, kwajabula ukuphulukisa labo abathanda igolide.
Ngesikhathi sokubhalwa kwalesi sihloko, idola lilahlekelwe yingxenye yakhe, futhi inkomba yalo eyinhloko ephathelene nezimali ezinkulu eziyisithupha, inkomba yesithathu, iwela ngosuku lwesithathu ngokulandelana kuya kobuncane bamasonto onke ngo-90.31.
Ikusasa legolide ku-New York Comex Stock Exchange, ngokulandelana, selitholile eliphakeme kakhulu ngeviki elingu- $ 1,850 nge-eunce ngayinye. Wawa ngaphambi kwenani likaNovemba elicishe libe ngu- $ 1.804 kuphela ngoMsombuluko, lapho ikusasa legolide lithengiswa ngevolumu elinganiselwe ngesikhathi seholide laseMelika - usuku uMartin Luther King. Ngaphambi kwamasonto amabili edlule, ikusasa legolide elithengiswa ngo- $ 1.963 ekugcineni kwesonto lokuqala likaJanuwari, hhayi ukufinyelela ama- $ 130 kuphela ngaphambi kwentengo yerekhodi elifakiwe ngo-Agasti.
I-Sunil Kumar Dixit, umhlaziyi wezobuchwepheshe weGold Gold Company Sk Dixit Charting, etholakala eCalcutta (India), isho ukuthi ngokuzayo, igolide ingazama ukugqashula ngeleveli ebaluleke kakhulu ye- $ 1,890:
"Ngenkathi intengo igcinwa ezingeni ngenhla kwama- $ 1828-1838, abathengisi bazolwela ukulandela isilinganiso esilula sezinsuku ezingama-200 esilinganisweni samahora amane, esihlala ama- $ 1.870, kanye nesilinganiso seminyaka engama-50 ehamba phambili nsuku zonke ishadi. Uma la mazinga esekelwa ngokuthenga ngokuthola okwanele, linda izinga ngo-1890, elingaba yinguquko esikhathini esifushane. Inkomba yamandla e-Stochastic Excressionar ahlobene nayo ine-Frames yansuku zonke nangamahora amane. "
Ngakho-ke yini eshintshe ngokungazelelwe kumdlalo wedola ngokumelene negolide, okungeke kwenzeka emasontweni ayisithupha edlule? Empeleni akukho lutho. Umlayezo ofanayo kuphela mayelana nokukhuthaza umnotho ngezinga elikhulu, kulokhu kusukela kuJanet Yellen, uNgqongqoshe Wezezimali nge-bayden. Sizobuyela esahlukweni sangaphambili sohlelo lweFederal Reserve System kanye nokuqiniseka kwalo okuphuthumayo, okudluliselwa ngabathengisi bakhe, okungaba ngukhiye wokubuyisa umnotho, okufuna abahlanganyeli emakethe yeBond.
Okwamanje, ngizofaka ohlwini lwezinto ezizonquma ukuthi ngabe igolide lizoqhubeka nokunyukela epulangwe ku- $ 1,900 nangaphezulu ngesikhathi esiphakathi nangesifushane, noma lizobuyela emuva endimeni yokwenyuka kwamanani entengo.
1. Ukushoda kwesabelomali kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali e-USA
UVictor Dergunov ovela kwi-Albright Investment Group amanothi iphuzu elibalulekile: Ngaphansi kwesivuno samanje se-1.1% esibophweni seminyaka eyi-10, inani lezinkokhelo zonyaka ze-United States zizoba cishe ama- $ 370 billion.Njengamanje isikweletu sikazwelonke sase-US singama- $ 28 trillion, kanye nenani eliphelele lesikweletu ku-GNP lingu-146%.
I-US Federal Budget Deficit icishe ibe yi- $ 4,5 trillion ngemuva kokuthi abaphathi be-Trump ngonyaka odlule bangeze ama- $ 3 trillion njengezinyathelo zalo.
Uma isivuno esihlokweni seminyaka eyi-10 sizoba ngo-2%, ngokuhlanganiswa nama- $ 30 ama-Trillions esikweletu sikazwelonke, inani lezinkokhelo zonyaka lizoba cishe ama- $ 660 billion.
Njengoba amanothi we-DRGNOV, ukusilela kwaminyaka yonke kuzokhulisa kuphela isikweletu, futhi amanani aphezulu wemali azokwengeza kuphela izindleko zonyaka. Uyanezela:
"Angicabangi ukuthi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, amanani azoba aphezulu noma aqhubeke aphezulu. Akunakwenzeka ukuthi kungenxa yesikweletu esiphakeme sikazwelonke kanye nomthwalo wesikweletu e-US ngokuvamile. Umnotho kuleli cala, athambekele ekukhombisa ukukhula okuphezulu kumanani aphezulu "ajwayelekile.
Lezi zinombolo (ezididishini) zibhekiswe ngokweqile, futhi kufanele siqonde ukuthi umsebenzi omkhulu onjalo udinga ukulungiswa njalo. "
2. Isisindo semali (M2)
I-M2 iyisibalo semali esifakwe ku-M1, kanye namavidiyo alinganayo. I-M1 ifaka ukheshi nemali kuma-akhawunti okuhlola, kanti ama-visidants angenayo afaka imali yama-akhawunti wokonga, ukutshalwa kwezimali ekufezeni imali yemakethe yemali, imali yokutshalwa kwezimali ehambisanayo nakwamanye amadiphozi aphuthumayo. Lezi zimali ziwuketshezi omncane kune-M1 futhi azilungele ukukhokhwa, kepha zingaphenduka kalula imali noma imali kumakholi wokuhlola.
Ngenkathi i-United States isesigabeni sokuqala sokwandisa imali, isisekelo se-M2 sisengakhuphuka kakhulu ngokubuyisa izwe ngesikhathi sezinkinga zonyaka we-2008/2009.
Ngokwakhiwa kohlelo lwemali olususelwa ekusetshenzisweni kwemali yegolide engavikelekile, amanani aphezulu, nakanjani, hhayi kude. Intengo yegolide ekuhambeni isikhathi eside iseduze kokuxhumana okusondele kakhulu ngokunyuka kwemali. Naphezu kokuncipha kwamasonto amabili okugcina nokushintshashintsha kwesikhashana, kunokuzethemba okuqinile - okuqinile, njengegolide uqobo - ukuthi maduze nje intengo yensimbi ephuzi izokwanda.
3. Ukubuyiselwa Kwezomnotho, I-Virus Nokuthuthukiswa KweMakethe Yezabasebenzi
Usihlalo we-Federal Reserve System kaJay Powell ngesonto eledlule wenza izitatimende eziningana ezididekile. Okokuqala, waphika noma yiziphi izingxoxo ngokubuyiselwa ngemuva kobhubhane. Kepha ngokushesha kwasho ukuthi "kunezizathu eziningi zokubheka okuthe xaxa emnothweni wase-US," nokuthi yini 'esiyobe sesibuyela emnothweni wakudala wokuphakamisa.'Kubangele izinkinga zezimakethe: kangakanani umnotho uzobuyiselwa ngokushesha ngenxa yemijovo evela kwi-Covid-19?
Umlando ngemithi yokugoma ungaphansi komlando wamadolobha amabili: IMeya yeNew York Ball de Blazio lizophela ngesonto elizayo, ngenkathi inhloko-dolobha yaseFlorida Hilahassess, ngemiyalo yombusi kaRhône, isabalalisa imigomo . Okwamanje, ngokusho kwesikhungo sokulawulwa kanye nokuvimbela izifo, uhlobo olusha lwaseBrithani lweCoronavirus, olubizwa nge- "B.1.1.7." Sengathi. "Sengathi kungasakazeka kakade ngoMashi.
Ngaphandle kokubuyiselwa kwemali kwizinkomba zekota yesithathu, umnotho wase-US usesimweni esidabukisayo, emavikini asanda kwedlula inani lezibhedlela nokufa ngenxa ye-Covid-19 esekufinyelele eziphakeme. I-United States ihlala iyizwe elinesimo esibi kunazo zonke esidabukisayo: kusukela ngoJanuwari 2020, amacala angama-23 ezigidi ezifo kanye nokufa kwabantu abangaphezu kuka-400,000 abhalisiwe.
Emsebenzini wezabasebenzi, i-United States kusuka ngoMashi kuya ngo-Aprin 2020 yalahlekelwa yimisebenzi engaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-21 esilinganisweni esiphakeme kakhulu esibangelwa i-coronavirus pandere. NgoMeyi, abantu abayizigidi eziyi-2,5 babuyela emsebenzini kanye nezigidi ezingama-4,8 ngoJuni, kwathi lapho amanani okutakula aqala ukwehlisa ijubane. NgoSepthemba, njengaku-Okthoba, kwavela imisebenzi engaphansi kuka-700,000. NgoNovemba, kwanezelwa abanye abangama-245,000, kwathi ngoDisemba 140,000 balahlekile - ukuncipha kokuqala kusuka ngo-Ephreli.
Lo mkhuba obuthakathaka eMakethe yezabasebenzi uqhubeke ngo-2021, kuze kube nguJanuwari 9, amaMelika angama-965,000 afaka isicelo sokuthola izinzuzo zokungasebenzi, okungu-23% ngaphezulu kweviki eledlule futhi kuyisikhombi esiphezulu kakhulu sezinyanga ezinhlanu.
UPowell uyavuma ukuthi emakethe yezabasebenzi "Sula uLull", futhi lokho akuwona amaholo kuphela azokwakha inhlabathi kungekudala. Ungeze:
"Enye into ukwehla okugcwele emhlabeni jikelele. Ezomnotho ezithuthukile kakhulu, emazweni asemhlabeni jikelele, okwaqala le nkinga, amanani wenzalo ayilungile, futhi akukho namathuba okukhula kwawo. Isimo esinjalo sizohlala isikhashana, futhi uyazi ukuthi umnotho wase-US uhlanganiswe kakhulu emnothweni wawo wonke umhlaba. Lokhu kuzoba nomthelela. "
4. I-Factor Yellen
UJeff Haley, inhloko yoMnyango Wokufunda wase-Asia-Pacific e-Oanda, ephawulwe emhlanganweni wasekuseni kulo mhlangano odongeni odongeni olubuyiswa esitokisini esithengiwe, ngemuva kokuqinisekiswa kwegolide, ngemuva kokuqinisekiswa okuqinisekisayo kukaJanet Yelevlen lokho Ukwanda kwesikweletu kuyindaba kukuhle, ngoba kwenziwa ngenhloso enhle yokubuyisa umnotho ngemuva kobhubhane lwekhulu.
Isitatimende sikaJeellen ngaphambi kokulalelwa kwesenethi ngoLwesibili, lapho avunywa khona lapho ethe xaxa yezezimali, anamandla kazibuthe kaGordon Gordon, ngaphandle kwegama elithi "ukuhaha", ngaphandle kwegama elithi "ukuhaha", ngaphandle kwegama elithi "ukuhaha", ngaphandle kwegama.
I-Factor Yellen noma i-Y-Factor (lapho isho ukuthi "Yebo!") Ingathinta kakhulu uhlelo lwe-bayden ukuze ubuyisele umnotho ngaphezulu kwemine elandelayo, neminyaka eminingi. Isahluko esineminyaka engu-74 ubudala sohlelo lweFederal Reserve sineminyaka eminingi yesipiliyoni kwezepolitiki kanye nezomnotho futhi sihlonishwe, womabili amakamelo okugcina eCongress kanye nabaholi bezezimali bamazwe aphesheya abamele izintshisekelo zebhizinisi.
I-Yellen iyadingeka yiBidenu nangesinye isizathu: Izinhlelo zakhe zokuvuselela zingahlangana nokuphikiswa eSenate kungenxa yokuthi iningi likulo limele iqembu lentando yeningi.
Izinyathelo ezivuselelayo ziseyingxenye yesabelomali sase-US, futhi ngaphandle kweningi eliphelele lamavoti angama-67 kwabangu-100, bazobhekana nenqubo ebizwa ngokuthi "ama-Democratines", manje athola ama-Republicans I-senate ingamavoti angama-50, futhi i-Price Modement Modeme Camila Harris inezwi elengeziwe uma kudonsela phansi).
Lesi sidingo sokudidiyelwa sikhathazekile ngephakethe elikhulu lezinyathelo ezivuselelayo lingase libhekane nobunzima ekutholeni i-senethi, ikakhulukazi icubungula i-republic macconnell ibuya njengomholi we-mitchity ukuze iguqulwe engqungqutheleni yengqungquthela egumbini eliphezulu lengqungquthela ku Anti Hell for Democrats, njengoba bekunjalo ngesikhathi lapho ehola iningi.
Futhi nokho, i-Democrat eyinhloko eseSenate Chak Sumer, ngenxa yendlela ye-BIPartisan ukufeza inani lamaphakheji anyuselwe ama-maiden futhi enze izinhloso ze-baiden - ngosizo lwe-baiten.
UHeili wase-Oanda waphawula ukuthi ngoLwesibili uJeellen waphoqa kanjani iphakethe elivuselelwa lebhidenovsky elivuselelwa ama- $ 1.9 trillion ezimakethe - okokuqala okulindelwe kuMongameli omusha:
"Bebefuna ukuzwa okwengeziwe ngokuvuselelwa, futhi uNkw. Yelevlen abanikeze izimbangela eziyizigidi eziyi-1,9 kulokhu."
Bekuthini iNhloko yalowo ophambili weFed?
"Njengamanje, lapho amanani wenzalo mancane kakhulu, into enhle kakhulu esingayenza ukwenza okuthile kukhulu. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngicabanga, ngicabanga ukuthi izindleko zizokhokhelwa, ikakhulukazi uma sinakekela abantu abalwele isikhathi eside. "
Ukuzikhulula: U-Bararan Krisnan ukhuluma ngemibono yabanye abahlaziyi ukuhambisa ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe okuhlukahlukene. Akuyona umnikazi wezinto zokwakha kanye nokuphepha okubukezwa ku-athikili.
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