Forex.
Ukulungiswa kwedola kuyaqhubeka ukuthuthukisa, isici esisha sokwesekwa kwedola kwakuwukukhula kokuqina kwemakethe yesitoko yaseMelika ngenxa yesibalo samaphrofayili aphezulu ". Isici esisha sizibonakalise - inhlangano yenethiwekhi yabatshalizimali abancane, ehlanganiswe namaqembu amakhulu ngokuhlasela izikhundla ezimfushane ze-hedge inyuso ku-low-liquid ukukhushulwa okuphansi. I-Vix ezinsukwini zakamuva ibanjwa ngenhla kwe-30, evusa ukuncishiswa kokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe yase-US futhi isekela idola laseMelika. I-Dollar Index Iphinde izama ukuhlukana 91, ku-EUR / EURD, ukulungiswa kwehle kuye kwacaca ngokwengeziwe, lo mbhangqwana ulwela ukuvivinya i-1,2. I-GBP / USD ihlelwe ngaphansi kwe-1.37, lungiselela ukulungiswa. I-USD / jpy izama ukubhoboza up 105.
Sikholwa ukuthi leli sonto lizocaca ukuthi idola lizokhula ngokwengeziwe, futhi uma ngikulungele, khona-ke lokhu kukhula kuzohambisana nokulungiswa okulindelwe yimakethe yamasheya aseMelika, okuthi, izingwegwe zonke Izimakethe.
Ngokuphikisana nokukhula kokuqina kokuqina kwemakethe yamasheya, izinto ezithengiswayo zithuthukiswa ngokweqiniso, futhi inkambiso ibonwa zombili kwezinye izinsimbi eziyigugu (igolide, iplatinamu) kanye namafutha. Lokhu kuhlotshaniswa neqiniso lokuthi umqondo wokuqala komjikelezo omusha wezimpahla uya ngokuya uthandwa kakhulu ngotshalomali oluningi futhi uhambisana nokwanda kokulindelwa kwe-inflation. Asenzi ukwahlulela ukuthi lokhu kulindelwe kangakanani ngaleso sikhathi lapho izingozi zeLokdaunov zisaqhubeka ziphakeme, kepha uma umbono ubanjwa yizixuku, zizomane zibanjwa isikhathi "esizenzela ngayo" isiprofetho esizigcwalisa ". Ukukhula kwamafutha okulindayo kungenzeka kwenzeke ngemuva kwezimakethe zesitoko eziwayo. Lokhu kuzothinta ama-Dynamics wemali eluhlaza, okungenzeka ukuthi alahlekelwe kakhulu ekulungiseni amadola, uma kuqhathaniswa nemali ehlukile yokuxhaswa ngezimali. Ngakho-ke, ukuze umdlalo uthuthukise idola linengqondo kunazo zonke ukukhetha umbhangqwana omkhulu - i-EUR / USD. Izinhloso zokulungiswa, ngombono wethu, lala ebangeni le-1.18 ... 1.19. Ngemuva kokuphothulwa kokulungiswa, silindele ukuvuselelwa kwedola kuyo yonke i-forex spectrum kanye ne-minima entsha yasendaweni ye-dollar inkomba engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.
Usd / rub.
I-ruble njengengxenye ye-General Trend Cust-off yahlangana namathemba ethu okubuthaka, izinga 75 ku-USD / Rub liphuka, kepha ukunyakaza okuthenjelwa akuzange kuqhubeke. Amafutha akhulayo asekela i-ruble. Sikholelwa ukuthi izingozi zezepolitiki ezihambisana nezenzo zesisindo ezidlulile eRussia ngempelasonto zigcwele, futhi ngeke zisekele i-ruble. Ukukhula okuqhubekayo kawoyela, kungenzeka ukuthi kubuyisele i-USD / rub kungakapheli 75 futhi, ngaphezulu, endaweni engama-73 uma kwenzeka ingozi yomhlaba wonke ingatholi ukuthuthuka okuqhubekayo. Uma ethola, ubuthakathaka be-ruble buzoqhubeka, kepha akunakwenzeka ukuba kube nokuwa. Ibanga lokugcina elihlolwe kahle lokugcina 76 ... 78 lizoba se-viscous. Kepha umphumela ongenhla uzohambisana nokusheshisa kokudla.
Izimakethe zesitoko.
I-VIX ngenhla kwama-30, izinkomba zesitoko ziyi-feverish kancane, futhi sicabanga ukuthi ukulungiswa okuyisisekelo kungahle kukhule ngokunyakaza okuqinile phansi, okunomthelela kwivolumu enkulu yamanani wokuzikhethela nawokwengeza. Izinhloso ze-S & P-500 endaweni engama-3,600, neNasdaq esifundeni esingu-12,000 sezingakaze zenziwe. Uma uthathwa, ukwehla okuwa ekuweni kungakapheli ama-10% kuzovulwa. I-RTS, nayo, isivele yahlabelela phansi ngo-1400, futhi ihlose esifundeni sikaDisemba iphakeme kakhulu kuno-1300.
I-Dmitry Golulovsky Analyst FG "Kalita-Ezezimali"
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