Inqubomgomo enkulu yezomnotho, ukukhuthaza ukukhula komnotho, kuyinqubomgomo yezimali. Ngosizo lwamaphesenti amaphesenti afakiwe, ukuhlinzekwa kwemali kanye nenkambo yemali kazwelonke yezwe kulawulwa. Umnotho wase-United States ngezikhathi ezithile ukhombisa umsebenzi obuthakathaka: ukusetshenziswa okucindezelwe nokukhiqizwa; ukungasebenzi okuphezulu; Amanani entengo ephansi. Kulokhu, i-US Federal Reserve iyaphoqeleka ukuthi inciphise amanani wenzalo ukuze afinyelele ezingeni okuqondiwe ukwehla kwamandla emali, elizokwazi ukukhuthaza amabhizinisi ezomnotho emisebenzini yobungcweti. Okokugcina uhlelo lwe-Federal Reserves System lwaqala ukunciphisa amanani wenzalo kusuka ngoJulayi 2019 kuya ku-Mashi noMashi ngoMashi 2020, okwenza kube nokwandisa ukuhlinzekwa kwemali futhi kwehlise inani lamazwe omhlaba wedola laseMelika. Umsebenzi wezomnotho waqala ukululama, kepha hhayi okuhle njengoba kungathanda (isithombe 1).
Izinga elisebenzayo leFederal Funds of the US Federal Reserve System liyisilinganiso esinesisindo sawo wonke amanani enzalo kwimalimboleko ebekwe obolekayo ebhange kanye neBhange Lekhompani; Izinga lenzalo elisetshenziswe ekusebenzeni phakathi kwamalungu ohlelo lwe-US Federal Reserve System. Izinga elisebenzayo leFederal Funds of the US Federal Reserve System kufanele lihambisane nezinga okuqondiwe kwizimali zeFederal, ezinqunywe yiKomidi Lezezimali ngokusebenza kweMakethe evulekile ye-US Federal Reserve System. Inani eliqondiwe lesilinganiso litholakala ngosizo lokusebenza emakethe evulekile: Ukuthengwa kwamabhondi kahulumeni kukhulisa ukunikezwa kwemali futhi kunciphise izinga; Ukuthengiswa kwamabhondi kahulumeni kunciphisa ukunikezwa kwemali futhi kuvusa ukubheja. Kulokhu, kuyadingeka ukubheka izinga lemali e-United States (Umdwebo 2).
Iyunithi yezezimali ye-M2 yizinhlobo zemali zemali (imali kanye nokuhlola amadiphozithi - m1), imali ebekiwe yemindeni, imali ephuthumayo encane ephuthumayo yemakethe yemali yezitolo. I-M2 Aggregary Aggregate ibeka imali ngomqondo obanzi futhi iyingxenye ewuketshezi yemali. Ukuvuselela umsebenzi wezomnotho e-United States ngenxa yenkinga yezomnotho ngenqubomgomo yezimali ethambile okuhloswe ngayo ukunciphisa amanani emali enzelwa yi-US Federal System kuholele ekuhlinzekeni kwemali kanye nengxenye yalo yemali ehlanganisiwe. Ngakho-ke, isinqumo sokugcina sohlelo lokugcina lwe-US Federal ukunciphisa futhi sibambelele ezingeni eliphansi lamanani wenzalo, elidinga ukuthengwa kwezokuphepha kuMlawuli futhi kwandise ukuhlinzekwa kwemali (i-M2 MOERETARY) (Umdwebo 3) .
Inqubomgomo yemali emnene ebanjelwe yi-US Federal System ifaka ukwehlisa amandla e-US Dollar. Ukuqinisekisa okungenhla, kungakuhle ukuthi uphenye ngokuxhumana kwenani lamazwe omhlaba wedola laseMelika kanye nezinga lenzalo le-US Federal Reserve System. Ukuqothuka-Ukuhlelwa kabusha kusungulwe phakathi kwe-US Dollar Index (Y, izigaba) kanye nezinga lenzalo ye-US Federal Reserve (X,%) isikhathi eside sokugcina (x,%) isikhathi eside sokugcina (i-x,%) isikhathi eside, kufaka no-December 1985 - Januwari 2021, okubonisa ubudlelwano obuqhubekayo be izinkomba zenqubomgomo yezezimali. I-pair linear regression equation yakhiwa: y = 88,12 + 1,2199 ∙ x. I-collection coefflent Rxy = 0.315 ukuxhumana okungcono okulungile. I-Elasticity Coeffrent Coefflent exy = 0.045 - ukunwebeka okuphansi kwezici. Iphutha elisondelene A = 8.6% - ngaphakathi kobubanzi obujwayelekile. Isikhombisi seFisher Ffaction = 46.1 Okuningi kwe-FTAB = 3.86 - i-equation yonke ibalulekile (ithebula 1).
Kuyalulekwa nokuthi uhlole ukuxhumana kwenani lamazwe omhlaba wedola laseMelika kanye nesilinganiso esisebenzayo sezimali zeFederal of the US Federal Reserve System. Ukuqothuka-Ukuhlelwa kabusha kusungulwe phakathi kwe-US Dollar Index (Y, izinto) kanye nebhidi ephumelelayo yezimali zeFederal of the US Federal System (x, inzalo yonyaka) isikhathi sokugcina isikhathi ngo-December 1985 - Disemba 2020. I-pair regressionar regression equation yakhiwa: y = 88,111 + 1.2218 ∙ x. I-collection coefflent Rxy = 0.315 ukuxhumana okungcono okulungile. I-Elasticity Coeffrent Coefflent exy = 0.045 - ukunwebeka okuphansi kwezici. Iphutha elisondelene A = 8.6% - ngaphakathi kobubanzi obujwayelekile. I-Fisher's Criterion Ffact = 46.0 inkulu kune-ftab = 3.86 - I-equation ngokuvamile ibalulekile (ithebula 2).
Kuyalulekwa nokuthi ukuphenya ukuxhumana kwenani lamazwe omhlaba wedola laseMelika kanye neyunithi yezezimali ye-M2 e-United States ngesikhathi eside. NgoDisemba 1985 - Disemba 2050, ubudlelwano bokuhlangana phakathi kwe-US Dollar Index kanye ne-M2 imali ehlanganisiwe e-United States: Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-coeffelation kungu-Rxy = -0.178. Mayelana nalokhu, kunesidingo sokuhlola ukuxhumana kwenani lamazwe omhlaba wedola laseMelika kanye ne-M2 imali ehlanganisiwe e-United States isikhathi sikaJulayi 2019 - Disemba 2020 - Isikhathi sokugcina senqubomgomo yezezimali yase-US Uhlelo lokugcina. Ubudlelwano bokuhlobana-ukubhekisisa phakathi kwe-US Dollar Index (Y, izigaba) kanye ne-M2 imali ehlanganisiwe e-United States (x, billion US Dollars) ayasungulwa. I-equation yokubhanqa kabusha okubhanqanisiwe kwakhiwa: y = 118.68-0.0013 ∙ x. I-Rxy = -0,774 colselation coefficient ingukuxhumana okunamandla okuqinile. I-Easticity Coefficial Exy = -0.234 ingukuqina okubuthakathaka kwezici. Iphutha eliyisilinganiso A = 1.4% - ngaphakathi kobubanzi obujwayelekile. Isikhombisi se-FFACT = 23.8 sikhulu kune-FTAB = 4.49 - I-equation ngokuvamile ibalulekile (Ithebula 3).
Ngakho-ke, esikhathini esifushane, ukuxhumana phakathi kwe-US Dollar Index kanye nezinkomba zenqubomgomo zezimali ze-US Federal Reserve System zivezwe ngokugqamile. Ngakho-ke, ngesikhathi sesikhashana sikaJulayi 2019 - Januwari 2021, ubudlelwano bokuhlangana nobudlelwano phakathi kwe-US Dollar Index (y, izigaba) kanye nezinga lenzalo le-Federal Reserve (X,%) kwasungulwa. I-pair regressionar regression equation yakhiwa: y = 93.52 + 2.3843 ∙ x. Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-coefficial kungu-rxy = 0.635 - ukuxhumana okuqinile okuhle. I-Easticity Coefficial Exy = 0.025 inobuthakathaka obuqili bezici. Iphutha elisondelene A = 1.8% - ngaphakathi kobubanzi obujwayelekile. I-Fisher Criterion Ffact = 11.5 Okuningi kwe-FTAB = 4.45 - I-equation ilonke ibalulekile (ithebula 4).
Ngesikhathi esifushane sikaJulayi 2019 - Disemba 2020, ukuxhumana kwenani lamazwe omhlaba wedola laseMelika kanye nesilinganiso esisebenzayo sezimali zeFederal of the US Federal Reserve System yafundwa. Ukulungiswa kokuhlangana kusungulwe phakathi kwe-US Dollar Index (Y, izigaba) kanye nebhidi ephumelelayo yezimali zeFederal of the US Federal Reserve System (X, inzalo yonyaka). I-pair linear regression equation yakhiwa: y = 93.99 + 2,1315 ∙ x. I-collection coefflent Rxy = 0,615 ukuxhumana okuhle okuhle. I-Easticity Coefficial Exy = 0.023 ingukuqina okubuthakathaka kwezici. Iphutha elisondelene A = 1.8% - ngaphakathi kobubanzi obujwayelekile. I-Fisher's Criterion Ffact = 9.8 inkulu kune-ftab = 4.49 - I-equation ngokuvamile ibalulekile (ithebula 5).
Izibalo ezibaliwe ze-Steam Linear Rejection zamanani wenzalo e-US Federal Reserve System, i-M2 ahlanganiswe nemali e-United States kanye ne-US Dollar Index ivunyelwe ukwenza isibikezelo sezinkomba ezifundwayo. Isimo sezulu senze ukuthi sikwazi ukubona amaphethini alandelayo ngesikhathi senqubomgomo yemali emnene ye-US Federal Reserve: 1) ngesikhathi esifushane, inkomba yedola lase-US isezingeni eliphakeme; Izinga lenzalo eliqondiwe le-US Federal Reserve System linomthelela omkhulu e-US Dollar Index kunesilinganiso esisebenzayo seFederal Funds of the US Federal Reserve System; 2) ngesikhathi eside, inkomba yedola laseMelika isezingeni eliphansi; Izinga lenzalo kwelitshe kanye nesilinganiso esisebenzayo sezimali zeFederal of the US Federal Reserve System zinikeza umphumela ofanayo kwi-US Dollar Index; 3) Ezikhathini ezimfishane nezesikhathi eside kukhona ukuqina okuphansi kwe-US Dollar Index, kuya ngenqubomgomo yezimali ye-US Federal Reserve; 4) umthelela wenqubomgomo yezimali yohlelo lwe-US Federal Reserve System kwi-US Dollar Index lunqunyelwe ngamanani wenzalo nokunikezwa kwemali; Ukuze i-US Dollar Index yehlisiwe, ngokwesibonelo, kuze kube ngamaphuzu angama-60, iyunithi lemali le-M2 lizokhulisa ama- $ 4,3945 billion, futhi amanani wenzalo kufanele anciphise kuye -14%, kungu-4) .
Ngakho-ke, njengamanje, ithonya lenqubomgomo yezimali yohlelo lwe-Es Federal Reserval System ku-US Dollar Index lilinganiselwe futhi ngombono wesikhathi eside kunganciphisa inkomba yedola lase-US. Ukwehla okubaluleke kakhulu kunani lamazwe omhlaba wedola lase-US kunganikeza amathuluzi angeziwe enqubomgomo yezomnotho kanye nesimo esibi emnothweni wase-United States.
I-Tenkovskaya L.I., Oqokwayo weSayensi Yezomnotho, uProfesa Wokuhlobanisa
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