Kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, abahlaziyi baka-Investbank Wall Street babonakala befuna ukubikezela kobugqikele ngokulindela ukukhula okusheshayo komnotho ngemuva kokuphela kwalo bhubhane. Izibikezeli zengxenye yokuqala ye-Goldman Sachs $ 70 nge-Brent ye-Barrel ngayinye, ezimbalwa ezimbalwa ezedlule abaningi ababonakala benesibindi, bagcwaliseka ngoMashi 8. Uwoyela ubuyela emazingeni lapho agxumela khona emazingeni okuqala kuJanuwari 20, lapho ayehweba khona ngemuva kokubulawa kwabantu baseMelika eBalemeri, kanti abahlanganyeli bemakethe bebekhona Ilinde ukwanda kwamasosha kokuphikiswa kwe-United States nase-Iran. Kuvela kwalawo mazinga lapho kwacaca ukuthi lesi sigameko besingeke sithole intuthuko, ukuncipha kwaqala, okwakukhule ekuweni kokuwohloka kwezivumelwano ze-OPEC kanye nokuwa kwesidingo ngenxa yobukhali Donsela ukusetshenziswa koyela emhlabeni okubangelwa ukwahlukanisa, okokuqala kwabo bonke - ngokuvalwa kweChina.
Yini engingayisho ngamanani manje? Ngabe banesizathu, nokuthi balindele ukukhula esikhathini esizayo? Ngoba u- $ 100 futhi eba ngokoqobo esikhathini eside naphakathi nendawo (phezulu konyaka noma okubili) ukubikezela. Abaningi bakholelwe ukuthi baqale "izinto zokusetshenziswa ezingavuthiwe". Kuyamangaza kulesi simo ukuthi laba bantu bavele baphikise ukuthi uwoyela ngeke abe yi-100 umgqomo ngamunye, ngoba imboni ye-shale yase-United States ayisoze yavumela ukuba ngokoqobo. Uzogcwalisa imakethe kawoyela esevele eneminyaka engama-80, noma ngabe iSaudi kanye namaRussia ndawonye abakhawuleli ukukhishwa.
Isihloko sinobukhulu obubili: isikhathi esifushane - kulowo nyaka, nesikhathi eside - ephakeme kweminyaka eminingana. Qhathanisa amaphuzu amabili: ukuqala kukaJanuwari 2020 nakwamanje. Bese kuthi-ke, futhi manje uwoyela obongekile wawungama- $ 70. Sasinjani isizinda ke, futhi manje?
1. Bese ulinde ukwanda kwezingxabano eMiddle East, manje amathemba okubuyiselwa kwemali ethe xaxa yase-US yenuzi kanye ne-Iran esekhuphuka ngokucacile, okuzoholela ekucashweni kokuthumela ngaphandle kwase-Iranian. Isici se-geopolitical ngokusobala asisithandi amanani entengo yamanje.
2. Bese-ke, futhi manje isivumelwano se-OPEC + sasisebenza, kepha imikhawulo ngaleso sikhathi yayiqinile kakhulu kunangaphambili. Manje kunezilinganiso eziqinile kakhudlwana, futhi i-saudi yasusa ngokuzithandela enye i-barr eyi-1 million / usuku emakethe, isho ukuthi bafuna ukuqhubeka nokunciphisa amasheya. Inqubomgomo ye-OPEC + manje isekela amanani aphezulu aphezulu.
3. Isidingo sembulunga yonke asisithandi amanani entengo yamanje, ukufunwa komhlaba wonke akutholanga, imikhawulo ye-Quarantiworture iseseYurophu, kubi, emavikini asanda kwamuva umbuzo maqondana nokubaqinisa futhi. Kodwa-ke, manje kulindelwe ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo samazinga we-pre-crisis ngemuva kokuphela kobhubhane. Kuzotholwa ngokushesha kangakanani - umbuzo uvulekile. I-China, okuyizintengo ezingezansi kwe- $ 50 nge-barrel ngayinye ikhuphule ukungenisa kwamafutha ngenombolo enamadijithi amabili (ngamaphesenti amagama ngonyaka) ngejubane, manje usevele wenzekile. Isilinganiso sesifutho manje futhi ekuqaleni kwe-2020, asithandi amanani entengo yamanje. Kepha uma ubheka ukuthi imakethe iphila okulindelwe, 'ungamthethelela "70 nge-barrel brent, uma ukholelwa ukuthi ubhubhane luzophela.
4. Isici esibalulekile emakethe yezimpahla yinqubomgomo yezimali ye-fed kanye ne-dollar inkomba. Nakanjani zikhona zonke izinto ezithandwa yizinto eziphakeme ezivuthiwe. I-Fed iqinisekisa amanani e-zero kuze kube yilapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphukela ku-2%. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma ku-2% edlule, kwakungu-2% okwamanje, manje, kungukunyuka kwamanani aphansi okuhambisanayo, kubalwa ngesisekelo sesikhathi seminyaka engu-5. Uma sibheka ukuthi ama-2% abengekho ezikhathini zangaphambi kwenhlekelele, isifiso esinenkani se-2% ngokwesilinganiso sizophumela eminyakeni embalwa, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuba ngaphezulu kwe-2%. Amanani angempela e-United States ngezinsimbi zemakethe yemali kungenzeka ahlale zimbi kakhulu. Ukukhula kwenzuzo yeDollar, okusukela ekuqaleni konyaka kukhathazeke abatshalizimali futhi kuvuse ama-dollar inkomba ukubuyiselwa emuva ngamaphesenti angama-92, noma okuma, noma inani lentengo. Inkomba yedola yilapho kungenzeka ukuthi iqhubeke yehle. Idola elibuthakathaka liyisimo semali esiyinhloko sokukhula kwamanani entengo yezimpahla, laliku-dollar elibuthakathaka akhula ngamafutha ekuqaleni kwama-00s futhi abeka ubuningi bakhe obungokomlando lapho idola libeka ubuncane bakhe be-cyclic.
5. Kodwa-ke, njengamanje idola liyaqina ngokwesaba ukuqhubeka nokukhula kwesivuno sedola, futhi isivuno sangempela siyakhula.
Ngokuphikisana nokuqinisekiswa kwale Fed, Abatshalizimali baqala ukwesaba ukuthi i-Fed izophoqelelwa ukuthi ikhulise ukubheja ngaphambi kwesikhathi ukugwema ukuxubha ukwehla kwamandla emali. Okwamanje izimo zezezimali zinamandla. Ukukhula kwesikhathi esifushane sedola akusithandi amanani entengo yezimpahla, futhi uma inkanyezi ingaphenduki ezinsukwini ezizayo, bese uwoyela, okubonakala sengathi uyimpahla ekhula ngokuqinile, mhlawumbe elungiswa.
6. I-Shale Mining, okuqala ekuqaleni kwe-2020, manje esele ihlala njalo, futhi ngama- $ 70 nge- $ 76 nge-barrel brent ($ 66 nge-barrel ye-WTI) izokwanda. Inani lama-rigs okumba akhona e-United States ngokusho kukaBuker Hughes, anda ehlobo.
Ukuvinjelwa kwamuva kwamuva kungabhalwa ku-Force Majeure eTexas, lapho ingxenye enkulu yezimayini ime ngenxa yokubanda kakhulu. Kuzobuyiselwa ngokushesha okukhulu. I-Shale Factor - ngokumelene nokusheshisa kwamanani, kuzokwenza, okungenani, ukuvimbela ukukhula kwawo.
Yini isifinyezo sazo zonke izinto ezifakwe kuhlu ngekusasa ngaphambi kwehlobo? Ngabe amanani entengo azokhula, noma ukukhula kuzoma manje, futhi sizobona ukulungiswa? Kunzima kakhulu ukulinganisa ukubaluleka okuhlobene kwazo zonke izinto, ikakhulukazi njengoba ukwazi ukuqonda kwesisindo sabatshalizimali kuyinto eyodwa, khona-ke enye iqala ukudlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu. Isixuku sikholelwa 'esikhathini esizayo esiqhakazile' ngemuva kobhubhane, khona-ke, kunalokho, siqala ukukholwa ukuthi ngemuva kobhubhane, i-apocalypse ye-inflanty izoqala. Ngaphezu kwalokho, zombili izinkolelo zingenzeka ngokuthula, kodwa ezimakethe ezahlukahlukene, okuyisibonelo, ngokwesibonelo, eziholele emcimbini wokukhula kwamafutha ngemuva kokuqinisa idola - kanti abathengisi bamafutha bakholelwa "kwikusasa le-Forex ethukile ukukhula kwenzuzo.
Kodwa-ke, sizozama ... Ake siqale ngesidingo ne-Opec +. Masike ngoFiasco nyakenye, i-Opec + ihlose ukuqaphela, futhi kunalokho ukunakekela ukwedlula ukucasulwa. Imiphongolo eyizigidi isuswe yi-Saudis ngokuzithandela emakethe, idlala indima yesiswebhu kanye ne-gingerbread ngasikhathi sinye. Uma iningi e-Opec + likhuluma ngomugqa wama-Arabhu, ngeke lithole ukwanda nje ukukhiqizwa, kodwa futhi nokubuya kwalesi sigidi emakethe. Esikhathini esifushane, kungenzeka, ama-Arabhu avela emjovo onjalo ngeke alahlekelwe yilutho, kepha labo abaphikelela ekukhiqizweni okwandayo - bazolahlekelwa ngenxa yamanani entengo, noma bebheka ukunwetshwa kokukhiqizwa. Isikhundla se-saudis e-Opec + sibonakala siqinile, futhi bazoqhubeka nokugcizelela izimo zabo zokukhiqiza kancane. Badlala ngentengo ekhuphuka, futhi lo mdlalo wenziwa, kungenzeka, ngakolunye uhlangothi onama-wall street atshatters, "okuphokophela" isihloko sentengo yokwenyuka. Kungani iSaudi, idala izimo zokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, hhayi ukwenza ukubheja kulokhu kukhula ku-CME ukuze izuze futhi lapho? I-Opec Factor + inxekeza futhi iyaqhubeka nokunxephezela isici sokufunwa esibuthakathaka. Sizokwenza, mayelana nalokhu, cabanga ukuthi izinto 2 no-3 ohlwini olungenhla manje level ngayinye.
Izici zokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-Iranian, isilayidi saseMelika kanye nesimo semakethe yemali yedola Into ebhekiswe kahle lapha kuphela inqubomgomo yaseMelika ye-Shale nezezimali e-United States endaweni enkulu. Imayini izokhula, futhi inqubomgomo yezimali izohlala ithambile. Kwindawo enkulu zombili lezi zinto kungenzeka ngandlela thile zilinganiselana. Ngo-2018, idola elibuthakathaka ledola laqhuma uwoyela uguqele endaweni engama- $ 80 nge-barrel ngayinye. I-Dollar Index, bese engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ayezinza ngaphansi kuka-90. Uma ukholelwa ku-Fed, ungakholelwa nokuthi inkomba yedola izobuyela esikhathini esizayo esiseduze 90, futhi inankabi lapho. Ngemuva kwalokho, ezinye izinto ziyalingana, ungalindela ukuqhubeka nokukhula kwamanani kawoyela kuya ku- $ 80 nge-brent ye-barrel ngayinye. Kungani kungenjalo, ngoba into enjengale yayivele muva nje? Ngaphezu kwalokho, manje awekho i-Trump, ukuthi i-tweitter yakhe engamemeza "ku-OPEC, ibakhuthaze ukuba banciphise amanani, ukusabisa, ekuvuselweni kwecala, ukuncishiswa kwezempi.
Uma isici se-Iranian ngesibonakaliso soMunu (kawoyela, sinomqondo wokuthi i-Iran izokhulisa ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwabe show ukuthi i-Iran izokwandisa ukuthekelisa) ngombono ophakathi nendawo). I-Iranian Factor ilingana nedola elibuthakathaka kanye nokukhula kokukhiqizwa kwama-shale, futhi noma yimiphi imizamo yokukhulisa amanani entengo kawoyela izobambeka endaweni ethile ebangeni lama- $ 70 ... 75 Brent Brent. Kepha uma isici sase-Iranian sizodlala ekukhuleni kwengxabano eMiddle East, bese kuba khona umlando wokuqala kwama-00s ungaphindaphinda. Lapho impi e-Iraq isebenza njengomshayeli oyinhloko wokukhula kwamanani kawoyela esigabeni sokuqala somjikelezo webhizinisi elisha ngemuva kokuqhuma kwe-bubble kwaqedwa, kwabuza inkambiso eqeda ama-maxima angaphezu kwama- $ 100 umgqomo. Futhi, qaphela, uwoyela wabe esekhula ngokumelene ne-backrop yemakethe yamasheya ebhere e-United States, yize, ekugcineni, waqeda kanye nokuwa kokugcina ngo-2008.
Ngakho-ke akukho lutho olungenakwenzeka ngo- $ 100 umgqomo ngamunye uma inqubomgomo yomhlaba wonke, ngandlela thile, izoholela enkingeni entsha yaseMiddle East. Ngokuphikisana nokulindelwe okunjalo, kukhona okuhlangenwe nakho okungokomlando: Ama-Democrats aseMelika, aqeda ukuphelela kwamandla e-USA (uMongameli kanye neCongress), afuna ukudlala iMiddle East Indima 'yabaphathi' . Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kunesilingo esikhulu sokubulala, ukuveza okungokomfanekiso, endaweni eyodwa yamafutha e-hares amabili: ukwehlisa ukukhula kweChina, ukuthi abantu baseMelika bamemezela abaphingile ngokwabo, futhi baxhasa ngemali esondelene nentando yeningi Inhliziyo yamandla aluhlaza. Uma uwoyela ebuyela futhi ngenhla $ 100 umgqomo ngamunye, kuzoba yisisulu esihle kakhulu sokwenqaba uphethiloli we-hydrocarbon ukuvumela ezinye izinhlobo zamandla kunemixhaso wesabelomali.
Ake sibheke ukuthi inqubomgomo yakwamanye amazwe yaseMelika izokhula kanjani. Ngenkathi kubonakala sengathi yizici zezepolitiki ezinquma ukuthuthuka okwengeziwe komkhuba wamanani kawoyela, ngoba ezomnotho, kanye nezinqubomgomo ze-OPEC +, noma sezivele zizilangazelele, noma zizokwenza ngekusasa lesikhathi esizayo.
I-Dmitry Golulovsky Analyst FG "Kalita-Ezezimali"
Funda izindatshana zoqobo ku: