NgoJanuwari 2021, ama-Economist aseRussia aphambili ayeya kwinkundla yendabuko yezesiGaiki. Ababambiqhaza abayizinkulungwane ezingama-50 kanye namahora angama-150 oHlelo ngezinsuku ezimbili zebhizinisi ngefomethi yebanga lokuthambekela kungukuphoqelelwa kweminyaka yamuva. Kodwa-ke, iphalethi lemibono elincishisiwe - cishe akekho obonayo eRussia noma yiziphi izimo zokuthuthuka ezinethemba. Okuhle kakhulu, konke kuzohlala kungabi kakhulu kunanamuhla. Kepha lokhu akulona iqiniso.
Yonke indawo ye-wedge
Bambalwa abantu abangabazayo ukuthi iRussia izohlala ivalwe kakhulu yizwe. Ukugeleza kokutshalwa kwemali kwangaphandle akusonge kusisisongele ngenxa yokwehliswa kwemali engenayo yabantu, uhlelo lokwahlulela olungaphambukayo, izikhulu zaseRussia, nenqubomgomo engalindeleki yaphesheya. UMnyango Wezezimali awunazo okugciniwe ukunciphisa izintela kanye nokugcwala umsebenzi webhizinisi. IPhini likaNgqongqoshe Wezezimali u-Alexey Sazanov Foggy Okuphakanyisiwe "ukuhlola ukusebenza kwezitho zentela esivele kunikezwe, ngokuyinhloko lezo ezitshaliwe." Lokhu kusho ukuthi ikhola yentela yokuba nebhizinisi elibukhoma ingaba nzima kakhulu. Namaphutha lapho ungena kwi-digital ruble ayakwazi ukuhlakazeka ukwehla kwamandla emali.Ukuthi izimakethe ezizoziphatha kanjani ngemuva kokususwa kwemikhawulo yeCoronavirus - ugogo utsheliwe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuthembisa ukubuyela esivumelwaneni sebhizinisi esijwayelekile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ingxenye enkulu yebhizinisi idumele ngokuqiniswa kwegunya isikhathi sobhubhane - futhi kungadala inhlokodolobha ebheke eCapal, osomabhizinisi kanye nochwepheshe, imingcele ene-European Union noma i-United States izokwenziwa kancane Yiba bodwa. Ngo-2014-2015 Kwakungamakhulu ezinkulungwane zezigidi zamaRandi ezithathwe emkhakheni wangempela womnotho, kanye nabafudukayo abangaba ngu-150-200 ngonyaka.
Ngokusho kweNhloko yoMnyango Wezabasebenzi u-Anton Kotyakova, manje eseRussia, cishe abantu abayizigidi eziyi-3.7 basebenza ukude, okungama-6% abo bonke abaqashiwe ezweni. Futhi ngombono weminyaka emibili noma emithathu, izinkomba zomsebenzi ezikude zizokhula zibe yizinga le-10% labasebenza. Lokhu kuzosiza ukunciphisa izindleko zezinkampani eziningi, kepha gcwalisa izindlu ezithengiswayo zehhovisi kanye nezimakethe zokuhamba zabagibeli. Ngokwemvelo, okuhlobene neleveli "yedokodo".
Omunye wabantu abacebe kakhulu eRussia, umnikazi we-Severstali Alexey Mordashov uzwakalise ukukhathazeka ngezingxoxo eziphathelene nokufakwa kwezwe okuthe xaxa kwezwe - "Umbuzo uqobo, kungenzeka ukuthi singenqaba izinto ezingenisa izithunyelwa, kubonakala kungaziwa . Siyizwe elincike kakhulu ekuthekelweni kwamanye amazwe nangokungenisa. Uma kukhona ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe nokungenisa kusasa, umnotho wezwe uzofakwa amahlandla amabili, cishe ama-50% we-GDP akhiwa noma kunjalo ngemisebenzi yezomnotho yakwamanye amazwe. Sisukuma nje ngokomzimba. "
Enye yezinto ezinqumayo zokukhula, ezinganciki ezintweni eziza kuqala kwezepolitiki zeKremlin, kungaba yidijithali yomnotho - kungamangazi ukuthi izikhulu zawo wonke amakhosi zibambezela izindlebe zethu nge- "Service State". Vele, umbono wokugwema ukuma kuzo zonke izinhlobo zemigqa "ebukhoma", ukuzingela kwethu okuphakade kwezitifiketi kungathuthukisa ikhwalithi yempilo ngisho nokungabikho kokukhula kwemali yangempela yabantu. Kodwa-ke, izinsiza zedijithali zisho izinga elisha lokufunwa. NjengesiKhulu esiPhezulu esiPhengqo yeWorld Bank of Kristalina Georgiev, asazi ukuthi ngenzeni ngezimpahla ezilahlekelwa yintengo yazo emhlabeni wedijithali. Futhi sinale ngxenye ebalulekile yezomnotho. Ungakunikeza kuphi, ikakhulukazi, inqwaba yezitifiketi zezethenjwa? Esimweni esihle, ukukhiqizwa kwe-digitalizal kusho ukuguqulwa komnotho, okungenakwenzeka ngaphandle kokutshala imali ngqo, kufaka phakathi phesheya. Futhi ubani ofuna ukutshala imali, uma sinenqaba yezwe - eyanelisiwe?
Kulokhu, faka izibalo ezingezinhle akuyona inkinga. Ngo-2019, uHulumeni waseSt. Petersburg ubike ngokukhula kokutshalwa kwemali kwangaphandle kwe-Ireal 25% ngonyaka. Yize idolobha libalekela cishe wonke amabhizinisi aseFinland, iFord Auto Giant ivaliwe. Kwavela, ku-Smolny, imalimboleko ethathwe yizinkampani zaseRussia emabhange aphesheya kwakuthathwa njengokutshalwa kwemali. Enye indaba: Ngo-2016, inhloko yoMnyango Wezimboni kanye neNyuvesi Yezobuchwepheshe uDenis Manturov ithe iRussia ithola umkhiqizo wezabasebenzi wase-US. Imfihlo yaphenduka yaba lula: i-ruble yawa kabili - ngokulandelana, izwe lalingukuphindwe kabili ngedola elilodwa.
Ukulingiswa kwentuthuko
Into eyisisekelo: ukukhula komnotho ezweni elinabantu abanciphile akunakwenzeka. Ngenkathi izazi ze-futurologists zidlula ubuchopho ekuhlaselweni kwamarobhothi embonini, empeleni kunempi yezinsiza zabasebenzi - okokuqala kwabafuduki. Ohulumeni benza konke okusemandleni ukukhathazeka abesifazane nabantu asebekhulile - mhlawumbe iminyaka engama-70. Ngokusho kwalolu mbono, kuvela ukuthi igunya lesiRussia liphakamise kahle iminyaka yokuthatha umhlalaphansi. Kepha futhi akusekho lapho ukwanda, futhi abafudukayo abavela eCentral Asia Russia basakhononda eRussia.
Izinguquko ziphumelela kuphela lapho inani labantu lisekela i-Reformer. Ngaphezulu kwamathuba aphelele ezwe, abuyiselwe ngemuva kwenhlekelele kuMholi we- "Fresh", okungcono kakhulu kubantu ngaphezu kathathu usosayensi, kodwa ubuchwepheshe obungaqondakali. Kepha ngemuva kokufaka umthetho-sisekelo eRussia, "ukuvuselelwa komjikelezo wezepolitiki" akubona kusengaphambili. Kanye nesimanje ngaphansi kweVladimir Putin ngokusobala akubukeki kuphelele. Ngokokuqala ngqa kweHhovisi likaMongameli, uPutin wayeqhuba izinguquko ezibaluleke kakhulu: anciphise inani lentela elisuka ku-200 laya ku-16, langena esikhundleni sentela yemali ehlukahlukene enentela ephansi, echichise amaphoyisa amasha kanye namakhodi amasha. Eminyakeni eyalandela, izinguquko zazincane, kepha imali engenayo yabantu yabantu yavuka amahlandla ayisithupha ngenxa yamanani aphezulu kawoyela kanye nemalimboleko eshibhile yakwamanye amazwe. Ngokuphikisana nesizinda sokweneliseka okukhulu, inkohliso, demagoga, umbhede, ubuthakathaka busebhizinisi. Ngo-2019, ama-ruble ayinkulungwane "abiza" ama-ruble angama-416 kuphela ukusuka ku- "doveshop". Futhi ngonyaka we-2020, idola livuka futhi kusuka kuma-ruble angama-61 kuya kwangama-74.
Ngenani lama-Billionaires, iRussia ibeka ingxenye yesithathu emhlabeni, futhi ilawula i-16% ye-GDP - kuningi. Kepha okubi kakhulu, amazwe amakhulu kunawo wonke enziwa emikhakheni egxile ekukhishweni kwerenti (uwoyela, igesi, ihlathi, ukwakhiwa). Kusho ukuthi ezweni akunandaba nomncintiswano wamahhala, ngemvelo elula yokuqamba izinto ezintsha, kepha icebile ngezindleko zezepolitiki, okuvumela ukuthola ukuthunyelwa kombuso kanye nokuvikela izinsiza zokusetshenziswa okuluhlaza. Futhi "ama-billionainaires amahle" angama-Bill Gates noma uMark Zuckerberg, okwazile ukufeza imali ephelele. I-Russian Zuckerberg ibizwa ngokuthi uPavel Durov, nokuthi ikusasa lokusungulwa kwakhe eRussia liye lakhula kanjani, laziwa kahle.
Kungani umsuka wengcebo ubaluleke kangaka? Zama ukucabanga ukuthi akunakwenzeka - amandla ashintshile eRussia. Isimo sobuzwe sabuya, nezwe ngentukuthelo sezwa ukuthi bonke abaluleke kakhulu bangemindeni ethile. Isifiso semvelo sabantu ukuguqula bonke. Amandla ezepolitiki anamamephu omgwaqo azoba ehhashini. Ngomnotho nokutshalwa kwezimali, isimo sezulu esinjalo - ayikho indawo emibi kakhulu. Njengenhloko yeMorgan Stanley Ruchir Ruchir, inhloko yezimakethe ezithuthukayo zikaMorgan Stanley, "Uma ngezikhathi ezimnandi ukuqondisa yonke imizamo yokwakha umcebo, khona-ke kunganciphisa wonke umuntu ompofu." Okungukuthi, ngaphandle kokusatshalaliswa emphakathini ngeke kube nemvume, kodwa amandla - ubuqiniso. Kanye nokudliwa kwemali kwezimali okwenziwayo - isimo sezulu esibi kunazo zonke.
I-Russia ngokwesiko iphila "amasu okuthuthukisa" iminyaka eyi-15 kuya ku-20 ezayo, akekho noyedwa ongakaze agcwaliseke. Umtshalizimali onekhono uyazi ngokusobala ukuthi hhayi izwe elilodwa, imboni ethuthukayo, engakakwazi ukuqeda isigaba sokwakhiwa kwesisindo samafektri wokwenza izinto ezilula njengama-sneaker noma amajakethi aphansi. Kufanele aphathe kanjani amacebo kaHulumeni wezwe angenisa izithonjana ze-Orthodox ezivela eChina, ukwethula ama-ruble angama-2 trillion to "atch-tech apration"?
Mayelana nokungenelela kombuso emnothweni, uRuchir Shimry ubhala lokhu okulandelayo: "Ngiqala ukubheka ukuthi luhlobo luni lwe-GDP lwenza ukuthi izindleko zombuso zikhombe ukuthi ngabe zingukutshala imali okubalulekile noma ukuhunyushwa. Ngemuva kwalokho ngibheka ukuthi uhulumeni usebenzisa izinkampani zombuso namabhange njengezinsimbi zokumpompa kanye nokuvinjwa kwamanani emali, nokuthi kukhuthaza yini izinkampani ezizimele noma inquma. " I-Sharma ayihlaziyi izinkomba zaseRussia, kepha akunzima ngaphandle kwayo.
Sine-17-18% ye-GDP kaHulumeni ye-GDP, edlula kancane kune-India, kepha kathathu ngaphansi kwamazwe ase-European Union. Ngokutshalwa kwemali okunesizotha, isabelo sombuso emnothweni uneminyaka engama-70% - lokhu kusho ukuthi abathengisi abazimele abamane bathule, futhi futhi no-Uroat ohlotsheni. Umkhakha wesikweletu wesithathu wesigamu sesigamu uphatheke indawo eyodwa yezwe engaphansi kwebhange eliphakathi. Ukukhululeka noma ukutshala imali okukhiqizayo? I-China iminyaka engu-12 yokukhula iye yaphela imisebenzi engama-73 yezigidi ezingama-73 emabhizinisini aseHulumeni, naseRussia iqukethe izisebenzi zikahulumeni eziyizigidi ezingama-33. Sinezinye izisebenzi eziphindwe ka-10 eGazprom kune-Shell yaseDashi-British, yize imali engenayo yomibili zombili cishe icishe ifane.
Okomtshalizimali, konke lokhu kudabukisa kakhulu. Kufana ne-Ferret Cavalier ukuthola ukuthi abakhethiweyo abufundi izincwadi futhi abahlali, kepha badutshulwe ngo-porn futhi abakwazi ukubeletha. Uma kune-kokoshnik ende kuphela futhi ebabazekayo kwesinye isikali, khona-ke umuntu uzophuma kanjani?
Akubalulekile kangako ukuthi iziphathimandla zaseRussia azitholakali lapho zihamba khona. Ku-chess esinjalo kuthiwa yi-pat. Ekuqaleni kuka-2021, iKremlin yakwenza ngokusobala kwacaca ukuthi ngeke abekezelele "ukuphikiswa okungelona ohleliwe". Futhi akanandaba ukuthi bacabangani ngalokhu "abalingani baseNtshonalanga". Akudingekile ukuthemba ukuthi okhethweni lwekwindla e-State Duma, amabutho amele onogada bezintshisekelo zosomabhizinisi angahlulwa. Ngokuphambene nalokho, sibona ukuqiniswa kwamandla okuthanda izwe okumemezela ngokuqondile inhloso yawo yokuthatha amandla futhi enze "ukuphenduka kosonhlalonhle". Bakhuluma ngeNkantolo ngobungxowankulu "ekucwaningweni kwabezindaba nakwi-Intanethi - okujwayelekile", nokuthi "uNkulunkulu akanasinye isandla, ngaphandle kwezethu." Kuzokwenzekani ngokutshalwa kwezimali uma lezi zibalo zizuza ukhetho ePhalamende laseRussia? UKremlin uyakuqonda konke, kodwa yena ngokwakhe wazibeka esimweni lapho engasekho kunoma ngubani.
Kuyena, isinqumo esinengqondo kunazo zonke ukuhlala phezu kwePop kahle. Yenza inani labantu, usike le irenti, ziqeqeshe abavikeli abahlomile nakuzo zonke izinkinga zokusola "izitha zaseRussia" kanye "nabase-Agents Bangaphandle". Futhi umtshalizimali wangasese ake iziteshi zidlule. Baphila ngaphandle kwakhe iminyaka engama-70 ngandlela thile.
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