Ngo-Agasti, imakethe yemali inamandla kakhulu. Kwabe sekubonakala ngathi: Yilokho isimo esibi kakhulu kangangokuba sivusa okunye ukudonswa okuqinile. Izinyanga eziyisithupha zadlula - futhi kubonakala sengathi isimo emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe sizinzile. Okungenani kubonakala sengathi ekuqaleni. Kepha kwenzekani ngempela? Sixoxa ngokukhululwa okusha kwe-podcast "ngemali." Ku-studio, intatheli onker nastasya zastasya zanya kanye noMhlaziyi Ophezulu "Alpari Eurasia" Vadim Josub.
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Imicabango eyinhloko
Isimo samanje sihlukile eqinisweni lika-Agasti ukuthi lapho-ke bekukhona ukwanda okubukhali kwemali (ngezizathu ezisobala) futhi ngenxa yalokhu, zonke izifundo zezimali ezinkulu zakwamanye amazwe zikhule kahle. Ngokuvamile, ubhasikidi wemali wakhula ngamandla. Kwakuwukuwa kwe-ruble yaseBelarusian ngesimo sayo esimsulwa.
Manje, uma ubukeka nje kuphela idola elilodwa, umbono wokuthi ukuwa kithi kuyaqhubeka (kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, idola lavuka ngo-2.2%). Kepha uma ubheka i-euro kanye ne-ruble yaseRussia, sizobona ukuthi zombili lezi zimali kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka ziwela kancane ngo-0,1%. Ngokuvamile, kubhasikidi wemali kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka kukhuphuke ngentengo ngo-0.6%. Kepha ezimweni zethu, kucatshangelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali kwethu, ukwanda okunjalo kwebhasikidi yemali akuyona into emangalisayo.
Idola liyakhula, ngoba liyabiza kakhulu emhlabeni wonke cishe kuzo zonke zezimali zakwamanye amazwe. Uma sikhuluma nge-pair yemali ye-Euro -Dollar, khona-ke kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka okwehlile kusuka ku-1.228 kuye ku-1,2. Lokho wukuthi, i-euro efanayo yawela kudola liqine kancane kune-Belarusian ruble: ngo-2.3%. Futhi, i-ruble yaseRussia yawela edola. Ama-Dynamics we-Belarusian Ruble e-US Dollar ayinakuphikiswa kusuka kumandla we-euro kanye ne-Russian Ruble.
Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi isimo sangempela sihlukile kulokho okwakungo-Agasti - Septhemba nyakenye, okulindelwe kokuhlaselwa kwabantu kanye namabhizinisi kuhlala kuphakeme impela.
Iqiniso lokuthi inyanga edlule emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe bezola ngokuphelele, akusona isiqinisekiso sokuthi kuzokwenzekani ngaleso sikhathi. Ukuze i-devaliation ingenzeki ngokulahlekelwa yimali yezwe lasebhange, uMlawuli wanweba ukumiswa kokusebenza kokulungiswa kwemali. Kalula nje, isidingo semali sicindezelwa yinombolo yama-ruble wamahhala lapho inani labantu namabhizinisi atholakala khona.
Maqondana namahemuhemu ngomshini wokuphrinta ofakiwe. Okokuqala kufanele uqonde ukuthi kungani, ekhuluma ngokuqinile, iyavulwa. Uma uhulumeni enzelwe enye injongo (ukukhulisa amaholo, ukuhlinzeka ngemalimboleko yenqubomgomo, njll.) Alahlekelwa ama-ruble aseBelarusian, angathathwa futhi aphrinte. Ngiyabonga uNkulunkulu, ama-ruble kuhulumeni anele. Kuze kube ngu-2019, iminyaka eminingana ilandelana, saba nesabelomali esengeziwe (imali engenayo eyedlule).
Ngenxa yalokhu, uhulumeni wakopisha imali kwi-airbag okuthiwa yi-airbag - ngonyaka owedlule isabelomali sasingezelele. Ingxenye yale mali kwadingeka ichithe. Kepha azichithwanga zonke. Ekuqaleni konyaka owedlule, imali ifinyelela kuma-ruble angama-5 billion. Ingxenye (cishe ama-ruble angama-2 ama-ruble) angasebenzisa ekusukeni kwesabelomali ngonyaka owedlule. Lokho kungukuthi, ngisho ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, imali yahlala.
Lokho wukuthi, siyaphinda: Lapho uhulumeni engenayo imali eyanele etholwe ngendlela yentela, ichitha i-snack. Futhi lapho lokhu kuflana kuzophela futhi, ngasikhathi sinye, akekho ofuna ukuboleka imali kithi ngaphandle kwangaphandle, noma emakethe yasekhaya, kuzodingeka ukuthi anciphise izindleko, noma ukunika amandla umshini wokuphrinta.
Kuze kube manje, uhulumeni akazange eze kulesi sidingo. Kepha kungenzeka ukuthi le nkinga ingahambelana engxenyeni yesibili yalo nyaka.
Futhi-ke sonke kufanele siqagele, siphendukele emshinini ophrintiwe noma cha. Namuhla, kubonakala sengathi asikho isidingo esinjalo.
Kunomqondo wokuthi izizathu zokukhula okuqinile kwedola kungenzeka kube ngenxa yezinkinga ngesitshalo se-belarusian metallurgical e-zhlobin. Ingabe kunjalo? Yebo, ubukhulu bokukhula kwenkambo bungathinte ngenxa yezizathu zangaphakathi. Ngabe bahlangene nensindiso elandelayo ye-BMZ, kunzima ukusho. Ngempela, muva nje, uhulumeni usanda kubeka izibopho zikahulumeni ezibiza cishe ama- $ 600 million, ethengisa lezi zibopho emabhange futhi athumele imali eguqukayo eBMZ ukuze isitshalo sibuyise okuthile kwimalimboleko edlule.
Lesi sitshalo eZholobin siyibhizinisi elinenkinga enkulu yomnotho waseBelarusian kanye nasemabhange. Izikweletu zakhe phambi kwamabhange zakha cishe ama- $ 1 billion.
Le mali kufanele kuqala ngayo yonke "Belarusbank". Uma ucabanga ngesimo esithi BMZ simemezela ukuqothuka futhi asinikezi imali "Belarusbank", ngisho nebhange elikhulu kangako kuzoba buhlungu kakhulu.
Ingathenga amabhange amabhondi ukuthonya emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwangaphandle? Ngokunokwenzeka, ukuthengwa kwama-BMZ Bonds kwakuyinkomba, okungukuthi, akunakwenzeka ukwenqaba. Futhi lokhu kusho ukuthi uma ngabe ibhange lingenalo inani elifunekayo lemali futhi liye emakethe futhi lithenge imali, khona-ke kulesi simo ingcindezi emakethe yemali ingaba. Izinto ezinjalo zihlala zingaziwa, akukho lwazi ngokufinyelela okuvulekile.
Ingabe umnotho wethu uzosiza umnotho wethu wesibili ama- $ 500 wezigidi ezivela kuRussia Credit Credit, elinde uMnyango Wezezimali? Uma uyikhumbula le ndaba, khona-ke owokugcina, i-tranche yesithathu yemalimboleko kahulumeni yabalwa ekuqaleni kuka-2021. Kusuka ezitatimendeni zokugcina zoMnyango Wezezimali, akukho lutho mayelana nokuqala kwalo nyaka akubonakali - kukhona nje ingxoxo mayelana nengxenye yokuqala yonyaka. Ngabe le mali izosiza? Ngokunokwenzeka, sebevele benakwa kwisabelomali futhi imali yabo ipendiwe. Okungukuthi, umbuzo awukhona ngoba asisindisa noma cha lezi zingxenye zezigidi, kepha lapho kufanele ngithathe khona imali okwamanje. Futhi ngenkathi kuhlala kuvulekile.
Ngokuqondene namahemuhemu athi elinye lamabhange okuhweba lilungiselela isifundo ngama-ruble angu-3.5-4 ngedola ngalinye. Izindaba ezimbi ukuthi akunakwenzeka ukususa lesi simo. Kuhle - Usabukeka ungathandeki.
Ukuze kukhule kakhulu ukukhula kwenkambo yedola, konke okubi kakhulu kuwo wonke amandla omshini ophrintiwe kufanele kwenzeke ngasikhathi sinye. Okusho noma kunjalo, umkhuba we-balarusian ruble uzokwehla, kepha ngaphandle kwama-perlert akhethekile avela kuhulumeni, kunzima kakhulu ukuthola ukwehla okunjalo. Ukuze wenze lokhu, udinga ukwephula yonke imithetho nemithetho yezomnotho, qala ukuthayipha ngokuphelele ngaphandle kwemikhawulo. Okungazange kwenziwe kusukela ngo-2011. Uma lokhu kungenziwa, khona-ke izibikezelo ezinjalo zibonakala zingethemba ngokweqile.
Ingavusa ukudonswa okubukhali kwenkinga ezenzakalelayo? Inkinga yokungakhokhwayo izodala ukushoda okukhulu kwemali kusuka kumabhizinisi ukuyothenga izinto zokusetshenziswa, khokha izintela kanye neholo kubasebenzi, futhi abantu abanamali. Ngokwakhe, isimo esinjalo asikwazi ukubangela ukudonswa okubukhali, ngoba akuwona ama-ruble anele ukwenza noma yini futhi ngaphezulu kakhulu lapha akulona ukuthenga kwemali. I-Bentally ayikho imali.
Kepha uma ephendula lo mlilo uhulumeni uzonquma ukuthela i-ruble ephrintiwe entsha, kulokhu, ukudonswa okusebenzayo okusebenzayo kungenzeka.
Yini isibikezelo sekusasa eliseduze? Akukaziwa kakhulu, akucaci ngokuphelele ukuthi isimo sezepolitiki sizokhula kanjani ezweni nokunye. Uma uzifanisa isibikezelo ngenyanga ezayo, khona-ke lapha i-Vadim Josub iphakamisa: Izinga ledola lizokhula libe ngu-2.7 Belarusian Ruble. Ngasikhathi sinye, umhlaziyi ukholelwa ukuthi i-euro kanye ne-ruble yaseRussia kungahle kube ngamazinga wamanje.
Izithombe
00: 30-07: 30. Isiphi isimo samanje emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe ehlukile ku-Agasti?
07: 30-11: 28. Ngabe iqiniso lineqiniso kanjani ukuthi ibhange likazwelonke lisuswe ekucindezelweni kukahulumeni futhi lalifaka lo mshini?
11: 28-16: 18. Ngabe izikweletu zebhizinisi elilodwa zingabeka ingcindezi emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwangaphandle? Kuthiwa imbangela yokukhula okuqinile kwedola kungaba nezinkinga nge-BMZ.
16: 18-19: 25. UMnyango Wezezimali wathi kulo nyaka i-tranche yesibili yemalimboleko yaseRussia ilindile - le yi- $ 500 million yesibili evela kwebhiliyoni elilodwa nesigamu. Ngabe le mali izosiza umnotho wethu?
19: 25-21: 56. Kuvele amahlebezi ngokuthi elinye lamabhange okuhweba lilungiselela esikhathini esizayo esiseduze esifundweni ngama-ruble angama-3.5-4 ngedola ngalinye.
21: 56-24: 40. Ingabe ichungeko lokungakhokhelwa okukhohlisayo?
24: 40-27: 13. Yini okufanele uyilinde ezinyangeni ezizayo? Isimo sezulu esivela kuVadim IOSUBA.
Funda futhi ulalele futhi:
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