"Kwanele ukulinda, sekuyisikhathi sokuthenga" - ngakho-ke wabhala kuleli sonto mayelana ne-ruble of the morgan stanley Strategistist James Lord noPhilip Denchev. Imali yaseRussia ingaqinisa ama-6% ngokunciphisa ubungozi obungacishe abe ngu-75%, ngakho-ke kunconywa ukuthi kube yizikhundla ezinde emakhubeni ngokulingana ne-euro.
Umthetho Osalungiswa ezinhlangisweni "ze-Navalny", ezingeniswe e-US Congress, kulindeleke, akuphathi ubungozi beMacroeconomic, kanye ne-ruble okwamanje, kunesizungu ngokuqhathaniswa namafutha Amanani, abhala.
Sinqume ukuthola kusuka ochwepheshe ezivela kwezinye izinkampani, entshonalanga naseRussia, noma ngabe bahlanganyela ithemba elinjalo.
"Besilokhu sibukeka sinethemba le mpi isikhashana," kusho umqondisi ophethe ngokuthuthuka kwe-Aton "Aton Management" Grigory ISEV. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi umnotho waseRussia wazibonakalisa okulindelwe kangcono ngonyaka owedlule, kanye nokwanda kwamanani ezinsizakusebenza, ezingaqhubeka ngo-2021 njengoba umnotho wembulunga yonke etholakele ngemuva kobhubhana, uyachaza.
"I-ruble isilinganiso esihle kusuka endaweni yokubuka ubungozi / yokubuya," umhlaziyi omkhulu wokuhlaziya "u-Arthur Kopsyv uyavuma. Ngokwephucula umsebenzi webhizinisi emhlabeni onentshisekelo yabatshalizimali ezimpahleni zamazwe asathuthuka kuzokhula, okuzoholela ekuqinisweni okubushelelezi kwezimali eziningi ezimakethe ezivelayo maqondana nedola, kuyakholelwa. Ngeke kube khona umehluko kanye ne-ruble, kufaka phakathi ngenxa yokwanda kwamanani kawoyela, athi, alinde ukuphela konyaka isifundo esingaphakeme kunama-ruble angama-73 / $.
Phakathi nonyaka, inkambo ingaqinisa futhi iqine - kuze kube ngama-ruble afinyelela kuma-70 / $, ngokuya ngokuhlaziywa kwezimakethe zezimali kanye nokuphathwa kwezimali, okuvela endaweni yezikweletu: kusuka endaweni yokubukwa kwezikweletu, okugciniwe kanye Amanani we-Ruble abukeka eqhathaniswa ngokuqinile ngokuqhathaniswa nemali-analogues naku-2021, kungaqinisa kakhulu. Ubona izizathu eziningana zalokhu: Ukubuyiselwa Kwezomnotho kanye Nesidingo Samafutha, Isivuno Esiphezulu Sezibopho Sendawo (Yebo, lapho kugcinwa inflation ephansi), ukuncishiswa okulindelekile kokuhlinzekwa okusha kwe-ASH kuqhathaniswa nonyaka owedlule.
Ngokusho kwesibikezeli semali ye-vtb, isilinganiso sokushintshaniswa sonyaka sonyaka we-ruble kulo nyaka sizoba ngama-ruble angama-73,3 / $, kuzoba ngokuqinile kwikota yesibili - isilinganiso sama-ruble angama-72.9, kusho u-Alexander Isakov's Perom Economist kanye ne-CIS. "Singakhuluma ngokuqinile futhi sinzima ukukhuluma ngezifundo zemali, sihlole isimo sabatshalizimali esiseleni esithile sezwe kanye nezinga lobungozi obujwayelekile noma ushintsho ezimeni zokuhweba, kodwa kubukeka kimi sengathi bekulokhu emhlabeni jikelele, futhi kubonakala ngathi USihlalo weBhange eliphakathi Elvira Nabiullina engxoxweni ngo-2014. Lo mthetho uhlala uyiqiniso: Umnotho unamandla ngokwengeziwe imali kazwelonke, "uxabana. Ngakho-ke ukuqiniswa kwamanje kwesifundo kuhlangene ngokwengxenye nokumangala okuhle kwizibalo ze-GDP ngo-2020 futhi kancane kancane uphinde uphinde uphinde uqinise kancane ukukhula okubangelwa yimakethe ngo-2021, isakov nakanjani.
Uhla lwethango lokubikezela isikweletu Suisse - 73-77 rub. / $. I-ruble ayizange iwele ngaphansi kwama-ruble angama-73. / $ Amaviki amaningi futhi manje yileveli engcono kakhulu okungenzeka ukuthi iyisisekelo, ikholelwa ukuthi amasu wokuthenga ngesikweletu eMakethe namanani avezayo asemakethe asafuzayo weNemrod Mevorach. Ngasikhathi sinye, inani lokugxuma ngaphezulu kwama-ruble angama-77. / $ Kuzokwehla - uma ubudlelwane phakathi kwe-United States neRussia ngeke bube lubi kakhulu, futhi amanani entengo kawoyela ngeke anciphe, kulindeleke. Ngakho-ke kubatshalizimali abalungele ukucubungula lesi simo ngombono omude, ukuthengiswa kwe-ruble ngaphezulu kwalolu banga kuzoba ukuyekethisa okuhle phakathi kwengozi nezinzuzo, efingqa.
Imikhawulo ayiyesabekaImiphumela kungenzeka ukuthi iholele ekubuthakathaka okubonakalayo kwe-ruble, ochwepheshe abakucabangayo. Enye iphakethe elijwayelekile lokububula ngokunaka kwabezindaba kuye kungabuyisa izifundo kuma-ruble angama-80 / $, kuvumela i-bragin. "Kodwa akufanele ukwesaba noma yiziphi izinhlangano ezibucayi zemikhakha, uyangabaza. Esikhundleni salokho, singakhuluma ngezinhlangano zomuntu siqu, ngakho-ke, sahlulela ukuthi kwenzeka kanjani, ukushaqeka kokuqala kuzobuyiselwa kancane futhi i-ruble izobuyela ekukhuleni, "imakethe iyaqiniseka ngokushesha." Ngakho-ke kunengqondo ukucabanga ngezikhundla ezikhulayo ku-ruble futhi ngisho nokuchazwa kwemali yephothifoliyo ukuthatha isabelo esithile empahleni ye-ruble ne-ruble, iphetha.
Ekupheleni konyaka, imali yaseRussia ingakufuna kakhulu, kuphela lapho kusetshenziswa amathuba okukhanya, kepha amathuba alokhu mncane - 10%, uthi u-Imev. Ngakho-ke, kucatshangelwa umehluko emazingeni anezinhlobo zomhlaba eziphambili, i-geopolitical ye-geopolitical yamanje e-geble iyaqabukela, uyaqiniseka.
Akufanele ukusheshaNoma kunjalo, akuvunyelwe ukwandisa isabelo se-ruble kuphothifoliyo. Ngokusho kweKopshev, ama-ruble amathuluzi ephothifoliyo azokhuphuka ngempumelelo. Ululeka ukukhulisa ingxenye yama-ruble Corporate Bonds - Amanani alabo abukeka ethandeka kunamanani ama-deposits kanye ne-TZ, kanye nokuqiniswa kwe-ruble kubenza bakhange ngokwengeziwe.
Abahlaziyi Deutsche Bank ekubuyekezweni okuphume ekugcineni kukaJanuwari nabo balinde ukuqiniswa okubushelelezi okubushelelezi futhi kusaphakamisa ukulinda ukucaca okuningana maqondana nezepolitiki zangaphakathi eRussia, Izenzo zebhange eliphakathi nendawo (umhlangano wokuqala wezinga lokhiye uzoba ibanjwe ngoLwesihlanu. - Izikhathi ze-vtimes) kanye nokusimama kwe-OPEC ngaphambi kokwenza isinqumo ngokutshalwa kwemali e-ruble.