Isiphetho se-EUR / USD sizoxazulula imakethe ye-US Bond.
Lapho iDollar yaseMelika ifika ekubizeni isivuno samabhondi oMgcinimafa, kungukumangala ekuqinisweni kwayo okusheshayo ngokumelene nezimali eziphambili emhlabeni ngokumelene nesizinda sokuthengiswa okukhulu kwama- $ 21 trillion market trezris kusukela ngoNovemba. Ngokusho kweJefferies International, ngasekupheleni kukaFebhuwari, abatshalizimali babhekana nokushoda kwamagoli ezibophweni zesikweletu kusukela ngesikhathi seCone-Hysterics 2013. Isidingo sokulinganisa amaphothifoliyo ekupheleni kwenyanga uzinze emakethe. Isikhathi eside kangakanani?
Ekupheleni kuka-2020, ochwepheshe beBloomberg bacabanga ukuthi isivuno seTrezeris eneminyaka engu-10 ngokumelene nesizinda sokululama komnotho wase-US sizokhula kusuka ku-1% kuya ku-1.5%, kepha bambalwa abantu abangacabanga ukuthi konke kuzokwenzeka ngokushesha okukhulu. Lapho amanani ezikweletini akhuphuka, ngokweqiniso, akufanele athuse abanikazi bamasheya. Ukukhula okusheshayo kwe-GDP, njengomthetho, kuholela ekwandeni kwenzuzo yenhlangano, eyakha umoya odlulayo we-S & P 500. Kubukeka sengathi i-trezeris isivuno ixhumeke kuphela ngokubuyiselwa komnotho waseMelika kuphela , njengoba kuzama ukukholisa abatshalizimali izikhulu ze-FOMC. Futhi ukukhuphuka kokuqina kwemakethe yebhondi kukhombisa ukuthi isiphambano ekuthengisweni ukuze sibeke ekuseni kakhulu.
Amandla wokuguquguquka kwe-US Bonder
Umthombo: IBloomberg.
Isidingo esiphansi sendali yakamuva, lapho abathengisi abamaphathina okwakudingeka basihlenge cishe ama-40% okukhishwa ngamanani aphakathi kwezimpawu ezimbili muva nje, kanye nezinto ezikhathazayo ukuthi amazwi aphondo azosakazeka ekugcineni nge Icala, laba ngabashayeli abakhulu abashayeli be-trezris. Njengoba kunikezwe isimo sokuthi indlu yabameleli bamavoti angama-219 ibhekene ne-212 yamukela iphrojekthi Joe Bayden ngesikhuthazo sezimali ngo- $ 1.9 trillion, umthamo wokuphuma kufanele wenyuse ngaphezulu. Futhi uma ukufunwa kuphansi, silindele yonke indali entsha nentsha. Abatshalizimali abanelisekile ngamanani wamanje, adinga okuphezulu, okuvula umgwaqo nge-New Poll Revel Relally.
Imakethe isabisa futhi iqiniso lokuthi uma i-Fed izogcina umlenze emaceleni okubopha isikhathi eside kakhulu, ukushesha kwe-inflation kuzomphoqa ukuthi acindezele ngolaka kakhulu. Imakethe ephuthumayo ilindele ukukhulisa amanani ezimalini zenhlangano ekuqaleni kuka-2022, okungaphezu konyaka ngaphambili kwangaphambilini kuboniswe ukubikezela kwakamuva kwe-FOMC.
Ngakho-ke, impendulo yombuzo izokwazi ukuthuthukisa i-EUR / USD ukuthuthukisa ukulungiswa ekuqaleni kukaMashi, kufanele ifunwe emakethe yezikweletu zase-US. Ukukhishwa kwemininingwane emsebenzini webhizinisi laseMelika kanye nemakethe yezabasebenzi, kanye nezinkulumo zemiyalo ezondlayo kuzohlukanisa isivuno. Uma izikhulu ze-FOMC ziqhubeka nokugcizelela ukuthi ukukhula kwako kungumphumela wokubuyiselwa okusheshayo komnotho, amanani azoqala kabusha umhlangano. Ukuze amise ukumiswa ukuthengiswa kwama-bond futhi aname amakethe, uJerome Powell nozakwabo kudingeka babonise ukukhathazeka ukuthi ukwanda okusheshayo kuzoqinisa izimo zezezimali.
Ngokubona kwami, ukuqiniswa kwesimo emakethe yezikweletu zase-US kuzovumela i-EUR / USD ukuthi iqhubeke nokuhlanganisa imiphumela yeshumi leminyaka leshumi lika-1.2-1.22. Ukuthenga ukwehlisa izingcaphuno emngceleni wayo ophansi nokukhula ekukhuleni kugcina ukuhambisana kwazo.
I-Dmitry Demidenko yeLiteForex
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