Eminyakeni emithathu edlule, i-World GDP yakhula ngo-3% unyaka ngonyaka, kepha amanani entengo yethusi ancipha ngaphezu kwama-20%. I-Copper ivame ukubizwa nge- "Doctor Copper" ngeqiniso lokuthi ngesimo sesidingo salesi sinsimbi ungahlonza noma yiziphi "izifo" zomnotho. Kepha-ke kwakunesifo sokungahambisani phakathi kwethusi nomnotho.
Manje amanani entengo yethusi asondela ekuqopheni amanani, kanti ezomnotho womhlaba zifuna ukuzikhulula emiphumeleni yeCoronavirus. Ukungahambisani kusalondolozwa.
Kepha kulokhu izimakethe ziyajabula ngenxa yesimo sezulu sokuthi umhlaba uzobuyisela kusuka kubhubhane ngokushesha. Ngakho-ke, "Udokotela wethusi" uyathethelela amandla alo okubikezela ukuthuthuka okwengeziwe komnotho.
NgoMsombuluko, okokuqala ngqa eminyakeni eyisishiyagalolunye edlule, amanani entengo yethusi ngekusasa ezokulethwa kwezinyanga ezintathu eLondon Metal Exchange aqoke ama- $ 9945, aqoshwe ngo-Ephreli 2011. Ukwanda kwamanje ngamanani ahlobene neqiniso lokuthi abatshalizimali bakholelwa ukuthi izinkinga zokuhlinzekwa kwethusi zizokhulisa ngemuva kokubuyiselwa komhlaba.
Ekuhlukanisweni kwe-New York Commodity Exchange Exchange COMEX kungenzeka ukuthi ikusasa lethusi lifinyelele ku- $ 4.22 ngephawundi ngalinye. Leli inani eliphakeme kakhulu ngemuva kokuphakama ngo-Agasti 2011, lapho ithusi libiza u- $ 4,50. Ukunyuka kwamanje ngentengo yethusi kuhlotshaniswa nethemba lokuthi iphakethe lezinyathelo zokukhuthaza zezezimali ezibiza ama- $ 1.9 trillion kaMengameli uJoseph Biden zizoqinisekisa ukululama (ukukhombisa) komnotho waseMelika.
Ukukhombisa, ukwehla kwamanani noma ukuqina?
Ukukhombisa inqubomgomo yezimali noma yezezimali okuhloswe ngayo ukukhiqizwa okwandayo, izindleko ezivuselelayo kanye nokunqoba imiphumela yokuchapha. Imvamisa kwenzeka ngemuva kwesikhathi sokungazinzi kwezomnotho noma ukwehla komnotho.Ngezikhathi ezithile, ukukhombisa kubizwa nangokuthi isigaba sokuqala sokululama komnotho ngemuva kokuncishiswa kwaso. Ngalezo zikhathi, idola livame ukuncipha, livusa ukwanda okubukhali kwamanani entengo yezimpahla, ezaziwa ngaphansi kwegama elithi "ukukhombisa ukuhweba".
Abanye abahlaziyi babikezela ukuthi ukugcwaliswa komnotho waseMelika ngeke kube yilutho ukwedlula ukwehla kwamandla emali okudala okuzophinda kufaka phakathi "ngemfashini" ngemuva konyaka wokudangala. Abanye ososayensi bezomnotho babikezela ukuthi kuzovela ukuqina - ukuhlanganiswa kokwehla kwamanani okuqinile okuqinile nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi ephezulu kanye nokufunwa okuvilaphayo.
Kunoma ikuphi, izibikezelo zithi isidingo sethusi sizosuka ezulwini.
I-Copper ngama- $ 10,000 eLondon Metal Exchange kanye nama- $ 5 ku-Comex
Uchwepheshe weCitigroup Max Leighton, inhloko yoMnyango Wokuhlaziywa Kwemakethe eluhlaza esifundeni i-Emea, ngoMsombuluko, engxoxweni neBloomberg, wathi uhlu lwezinto "ze-bullish" zamanani ethusi zinde kakhulu:
"Ezinyangeni ezizayo, izici eziningi ze-bullish zizodlala ngokweqiniso. Ngakho-ke, sibikezela ukuthi maduze noma amanani entengo noma kamuva yethusi azofinyelela ku- $ 10,000. "
Amagrafu anikezela nge-SK Dixit Charting
Ngokusho Sunil Kumar Dixit, le SK Dixit charting umhlaziyi ezinze e-Indian Calcutta, ku iziqephu New York Commodity Exchange COMEX yethusi uyovuka intengo $ 5 ounce ngayinye, ishaya value irekhodi $ 4,625, esilotshwe Agasti 2011 . Dixit ukholelwa:
"On comex amanani entengo yethusi adlule amazinga okumelana a- $ 3.30, $ 3.80 no- $ 4,10 njengoba ummese oshisayo edlula emafutheni. Ama-Dynamics wamanje aphakamisa ukuthi ithusi lilungele ukunqoba inani eliphakeme ka-2011, elilungisiwe ngo- $ 4.63. Uma lokhu kwenzeka, okungenzeka, "okungenzeka ukuthi kungenzeka ukwehlisa umoya, bese ithusi lizoba ithusi ku-ajenda."
Ngokuqondene nezinkomba zezobuchwepheshe kwihluzo lethusi ku-Comex, i-REPORT Force Index (RSI) ikhombisa kuze kube semini, amagrafu amasonto onke, amagrafu amaningi okuthuthuka okuqhubekayo nawo akhula, ngokusho kwe-dicita, izizathu ezinzima zokuqhubeka no inkambiso yenkunzi.
Kodwa-ke, uxwayisa ngokuthi umoya odlulayo wethusi angashintsha, yize kungenjalo.
"Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuqedwa kwemini kanye namasonto onke ngaphansi kwama- $ 4.07 kufanele kubhekwe njengophawu lokuqala lokuqala kokusatshalaliswa kwamanani nokulungiswa, okuzokwehla ukuthi amanani entengo yethusi azokwehla ngeviki le-10 no-50 -Week exponential average average emazingeni we- $ 3, angama-76 no- $ 3.68, ngokulandelana. "
Igagasi lesidingo esivusa amanani entengo yezinto eziningi
Kepha amanani ayakhula hhayi kuphela ngethusi. Amanani cishe azodla kuyo yonke impahla - emafutheni aya kwigolide, kusuka esiliva kuya emndenini - wavuka igagasi elibangelwa ukugeleza kwemali eshibhile. Abatshalizimali bafuna inzuzo ephezulu ngenkathi amabhange aphakathi emhlabeni wonke agcina amarekhodi aphansi inzalo ukuze asheshise ukululama kusuka ku-Covid-19.Endabeni yethusi, umhlangano uyaqhubeka isikhathi eside.
I-Copper kwesinye isikhathi icatshangelwa njengenkomba yesimo emnothweni womhlaba. Futhi le metal iyabiza kakhulu cishe ngaphandle kokuvimba unyaka kakhulu ngenxa yomthengi ophambili - China. Leli lizwe laqala ukululama eLokdaunov Covid-19 ngaphambi komhlaba wonke.
Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, ukungafani phakathi kwamanani entengo yethu kanye nokukhula komnotho kwavela ukuthi kukhulunywa kangako kokukhulunywa ngomuzwa "ngodokotela"
Naphezu kwezinkinga zezimali zika-2008-2009, i-GDP Yomhlaba wonke inyukile. Ukukhula kwe-GDP okuqongelelayo yesikhathi 2000-2009 kwakungu-29%, okuhambelana nokwanda konyaka ngo-2.9%.
Uma uyiqhathanisa namanani entengo yethusi, bese kuthi ngoJanuwari 2000, kwaqala nge-comex ngenani lama- $ 0.86 ngenani ngalinye futhi liqede u- $ 3.33 ngoDisemba 2009. Lokhu ukwanda okukhulu kwentengo ngo-287%. Ngokusobala, ithusi ngalesi sikhathi asizange ziveze isimo emnothweni, wayesekhulile ngokomnotho.
Futhi kusuka ekungcoleni kwinkosana?
Imfihlakalo yethusi ngo-2000-2009 ayixazululwa iminyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Ukukhula kwe-GDP eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo akukashintshi cishe, kusheshisa ngenani elihlanganisiwe lama-30% isikhathi kusuka ngo-2010 kuya ku-2019 (isilinganiso se-3% njalo ngonyaka). Kodwa-ke, ithusi liye kwenye indlela.
Kuma-comex, amanani ensimbi aqale nge- $ 3.33 ngephawundi ngalinye ngoJanuwari 2010 futhi aqede ngenani lama- $ 2.83 ngephuzu ngalinye ngoDisemba 2019. Ngakho-ke, izindleko zethusi ngalesi sikhathi sehle ngo-15%.
Abahlaziyi bafunda amanani entengo yale minyaka eyishumi bakholelwa ukuthi amanani entengo yethusi avame ukuvinjelwa ngenxa yokukhathazeka kwencipha ekukhuleni komnotho, okungakaze kube khona. Futhi, isidingo nentengo kuthonye impi ebanzi yokuhweba yempi ye-Trump Administration neChina, okuyinto eyanda kakhulu kuleli nsimbi emhlabeni.
Kunoma ikuphi, emashumini amabili eminyaka, ithusi, njengensimbi eyinhloko yezwe yomhlaba, ephuma izikhulu ezingcolile.
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