Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi esikhulu sabezindaba ngoJanuwari 18, uNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseRussia uSergei Lavrov uthinte ubudlelwano phakathi kweMosing neBeijing, baphawula ukubambisana kwabo, kufaka phakathi i-UN. Enkonzweni yakwamanye amazwe yaseChina, yathi ubudlelwane bamazwe "babhapathizwa ngubhubhane omusha weCoronaviru futhi wakwazi ukumelana nokuhlolwa ngoshintsho." Ngo-2021, kuphawula iminyaka engama-20 selokhu kwasayinwa kwesivumelwano esivuselelwe umakhelwane omuhle, ubungani kanye nokubambisana. Njengommeleli osemthethweni woMnyango Wezangaphandle weRephabhuliki Yabantu baseChina Huna Chunin, kulokhu kuNyaka oMusha uBeijing uhlose ukukhuthaza ubudlelwane beminyaka yobumbano "ngephuzu eliphakeme." Kusho ukuthini lokhu futhi kuthi lapho kulungiswa khona ukuqondiswa kweRussia neChina ngo-2021, kuhlaziye uchwepheshe wesikhungo ukuze kufundwe amathemba okuhlanganisa uVladimir Nezhdan.
Yize ukuqala kuka-2020 kwathenjiswa okulindelwe okuhle, ubhubhane lweCoronavirus laba yi "swan emnyama", eyaba nomthelela kuwo wonke amaqembu njengoba nepolitiki yezwe ngokuvamile. Isinqumo se-Unilateral ekuvaleni komngcele waseRussia-Chinese, izehlakalo ezinezakhamizi ze-CNR ngesikhathi sokuqala ukuqina kwezinyathelo zokulwa nobhubhana kanye nokuwa kwesilinganiso esikhulu ekukhuleni komnotho kubangele ukuqagela okukhona Inkinga yokubambisana eMoscow naseBeijing. Noma kunjalo, iRussia ne-PRC akunakugcina kuphela ukugcina izinga lobudlelwano obutholakele kulo nyaka onzima, kodwa futhi liveze amathuba okuqinisa ukusebenzisana ngo-2021, okwaboniswa emhlanganweni ohlanganyelwe wasesihlanu we Izinhloko zoHulumeni baseRussia neChina, ezenzeka ngoDisemba 2.
Uphethiloli kanye namandla emkhakheni: ama-vertices amasha
Ukubambisana kwama-Russian-Chinese kuphethiloli kanye ne-Energy Complex kuyaholela kancane kancane ekwakhiweni kwamandla wamandla walawa mazwe womabili. Namuhla, ukubambisana kwamandla phakathi kweMoscow neBeijing kukhuluma esinye sezinto ezizinzile kakhulu ezikwazi ukubona ukuhlanganiswa kwamandla kwesifunda ngokuzayo, kanye nesifiso sokukhulisa ukuhweba okuphakathi kwezigidigidi ezingama- $ 200 ngonyaka we-PRC. Amathemba okubambisana kwamandla abhalwe esitatimendeni esihlanganyelwe saseRussia naseChina "ekuthuthukisweni kobudlelwano phakathi kokubambisana okuphelele nokuxhumana kwamasu, ukungena enkathini entsha."Izinsizakalo zamandla zingama-63% eRussia neChina Inzuzo. Ukubambisana emkhakheni kawoyela negesi kuhlala kuyinjini enkulu yengxoxo ye-Billater Energy. Ukunikezwa kwamafutha okuvela eRussia kuya eChina kukhuphuke kube yimigqomo eyizigidi eziyi-1.83 ngosuku ngo-Septhemba 2020, okwenza i-Russia ihlala eSaudi Arabia, okunikeza ama-bambels ayizigidi eziyi-1,9 ku-PRC Raw. usuku. U-Er-Riyad uhlose ukuqinisa isikhundla sawo emakethe yamafutha amaChinese, ukulethwa kwawo kwandiswe ngo-53% uma kuqhathaniswa nezinkomba zika-Agasti. Kodwa-ke, ukungenisa uwoyela ongahluziwe ovela e-United States kuya eChina ngoSepthemba kwakhula iminyaka eyisikhombisa minyaka yonke.
Mhlawumbe, ngo-2021, i-PRC izoqhubeka nokwandisa izinto zikawoyela. NgoSepthemba 2020, iChina engeniswa ngamafutha amaningi angu-17,6% uma iqhathaniswa no-2019, ngakho-ke umncintiswano wase-United States kanye ne-Saudi kanye ne-Saudi Arabia uzokhula kuphela emakethe yamafutha amaChina.
Ukuthumela ngaphandle igesi yaseRussia kuya eChina ePiberia Pipeline ku-Power Siberia sekuchithile ngemuva kohlelo. NgoJanuwari-Agasti 2020, iGazPROM yaphonswa ngepayipi ngamamitha ayi-2,3 billion amamitha ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.3, okungaphansi kwengxenye yevolumu ehleliwe. Ngenxa yobhubhane, iChina yanciphisa ngokushesha ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo, kepha yaqala ukwakha okugcinwe uphethiloli ngekusasa, ngokuthenga ngentshiseko igesi eshibhile kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, kuyavela ukuthi iGazprom ayinawo umthamo empumalanga yeSiberia ukufeza inkontileka ne-PRC.
I-China nayo ihlala ingenye yezimakethe zokuthumela ngaphandle zamalahle aseRussia kanye nogesi. Isithiyo esiyinhloko ekukhuleni okwengeziwe kokuhlinzekwa yile nxalelo yengqalasizinda ye-Borderline. Ngakho-ke, enye yemisebenzi ebalulekile ye-2021 ukwenza lula ukugcwaliswa kokwakhiwa kwesitimela sebhuloho lesitimela se-nizhneneninskoye-songjiang kanye nephuzu elihambisanayo lokudlula, kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda yengqalasizinda ye-Cross-Border.
Ubudlelwano bezohwebo nobuciko: Ubhubhane akusona isizathu sokunciphisa ijubane
Naphezu kobhubhane, inzuzo yokuhweba yaseRussia-Chinese ngo-2020 ingabuyekeza irekhodi ngonyaka owedlule, lapho ukuhweba okuningana eMoscow naseBeijing kudlule ama- $ 110 billion.
Yize ukubambisana emkhakheni kawoyela negesi kusale kungukufutheka kwezohwebo zaseRussia-Chinese, ukuthengisa kwi-PRC yezimpahla zezolimo kuhamba kancane kancane. Ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyisishiyagalombili zango-2020, ukuthunyelwa kwama-russian of soya eChina kwakhula ngonyaka we-9% kuya ku-490,000 ngonyaka ngamagama wonyaka, futhi kwathumela amafutha e-soybean angama-140% kuye ku-216,000 amathani angama-140% kuya ku-216,000 amathani angama-140% kuya kwangama-216% kuya ku-216,000 amathani. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukulethwa kwenyama nemikhiqizo engezansi evela eRussia kuya eChina ngo-2020 kukhuphuke ngezikhathi eziyisishiyagalolunye, uwoyela we-sunflower - okuphindwe kabili, ukunikezwa kwenyama yaseRussia kwaqala. Kodwa-ke, ngo-2021, ubukhona baseRussia emakethe yaseChina lama-soya kanye nezinhlamvu bungancishiswa ngenxa yokwethulwa kwemisebenzi yokuthumela ngaphandle kanye nokucaphuna kokompolo, i-rye, ibhali kanye nommbila.
I-Moscow neBeijing bahlose ukuqhubeka nokonakalisa ekubaleni kokuzwana. Ekota yokuqala ka-2020, isabelo sedola ekuguqukeni kweRussia eRussia kanye ne-PRC lalingaba ngu-46%, kwathi ngonyaka ka-2015 idola lalihlala cishe ama-90% okuhweba okuhlanganayo eRussia nase-PRC. Ngasikhathi sinye, isabelo se-Euro ngokubalwa kwezibalo ngekota yokuqala kube khona irekhodi eliphakeme kakhulu - 30%, isabelo se-yuan singu-17%, kanye nesabelo se-ruble ngu-7%.
Kodwa-ke, kuze kube manje izibalo ze-CNR Customs zikhuluma ngokuncipha okuncane ku-Russian-Chinese. Ekupheleni kwezinyanga eziyisishiyagalolunye ka-2020, inzuzo yokuhweba yaseRussia kanye ne-PRC yehle ngo-2% uma iqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo sika-2019, ngokwemiphumela ekhombisa ukwehla ngo-2.3%. Ngasikhathi sinye, umshayeli wokuhweba usebenza njengokuthekelisa kwezimpahla ezivela ku-PRC, kuyilapho amandla okungenisa impahla ezweni e-China ahlala eChina. Naphezu kokuncipha kwejubane lokuhweba okuhlanganyele, ngoDisemba, kwandiswa ngesidingo sabathengi bamandla baseRussia bekulindelekile, okufanele kusebenze njengesisekelo sokusungula irekhodi elisha lokuhweba.
Ngenxa yalokhu, umsebenzi osemqoka weRussia ngo-2021 uba ukuhlanganiswa kwemiphumela ekuhlukanisweni kokuhweba ne-PRC.
Iminyaka emibili edlule yabahlaziyi baphawula impumelelo yabakhiqizi bezolimo baseRussia emakethe yaseChina ngenxa yokwanda kokuphikisana nokuhweba okuphikisanayo naseWashington. Ukuza kuPower Joe Banjiden kanye nokulungela ukuphathwa okusha kwe-American Administration ku-Pragmatic Addiaty in the Cragmatic Equal to Trade and Beijing kugcizelela ukuthi kubaluleke kangakanani eRussia ekwakhiweni komgwaqo ekuthuthukisweni komgwaqo okuphezulu kwe Ukuhwebelana kwaseRussia-Chinese empahleni nasezinsizakalweni kuze kube ngu-2024, futhi kwazama ukuthuthukisa ukwakheka, ukukhomba amaphuzu amasha okukhula komnotho, ukuthuthuka okwengeziwe kwemvelo yebhizinisi yokuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali. EChina, kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ukuqhubeka kokubambisana kwezohwebo neRussia kuzothonywa isigaba sokuqala sesivumelwano sokuhweba se-PRC ne-United States. Noma kunjalo, ukutholwa kwe- "RoadMap" kuzokwenza ukuthuthukiswa kwezentengiselwano ezihlanganayo kubikezelwe ngokwengeziwe.
Ukubambisana emkhakheni wamasosha - Izimpumelelo nobunzima
Usizo lweRussia ekwakhiweni kohlelo lokuxwayisa ngokuhlaselwa kwe-missile ku-PRC kanye nokuzivocavoca kwamasosha okuhlangene kufakazela izinga lokuzethemba elingakaze libonwe emaqenjini. Ngokuhlinzeka ngobuchwepheshe obuthuthukile be-PRC futhi bafundise ochwepheshe baseChina, iRussia iqinisa isikhundla seChina ngokuxabana ne-United States. Isici se-Union of Russia neChina kungaba yiqiniso lokuthi le Alliance izohlose ukunciphisa ubungozi bokuqinisa ingcindezi yezepolitiki nezomnotho yaseWashington naseBeijing.Kodwa-ke, ukuphikisana maqondana nokubambezeleka kokuhlinzekwa kwezinhlelo ze-S-400 ehlobo lika-2020, kanye nezitatimende zama-diplomats aseShayina lapho kugujwa kweminyaka engu-160 ye-Vladivostok kwaxoxa ngezinto ezihlukile eMoscow neBeijing. Enye into ekwazi ukubeka ingcindezi ekubambisaneni kwamasosha amaqembu kungenzeka kube yi-misthed entsha ye-Supervisory Wingled Withed "Brahmos" yokuthuthukiswa okuhlanganyelwe kweRussia naseNdiya. I-China ikhathazekile ngesifiso sePhilippines ukuze sithole la marokhethi, sinikezwe ukuthi iRussia ifakiwe kwinqubo yokulethwa.
Amandla okuqhubeka nokuqina kokubambisana kwezempi phakathi kweMosco neBeijing, kuya ngesisekelo sezinhlaka, ukwakha ezilinganisweni zenzalo ngendlela yokuthi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungenzeka ukuqinisekisa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuhlukanisa ukubambisana kwezobuchwepheshe kwezobuchwepheshe namanye amazwe ngaphandle kokulimaza ubudlelwane obuphakathi.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, enye yezenzakalo eziphambili zango-2020 ingabhekwa njengokunwetshwa kweRussia kanye neChina isivumelwano ngezaziso zokuqalisa ukwethulwa kweminyaka eyi-10. Lokhu akubonisi kuphela izinga eliphakeme lokuzethemba, kepha futhi nokulungela kwe-PRC ukugcina inkhulumomphendvulwano elawulweni lwezingalo zomhlaba. Ukunwetshwa kwesivumelwano phakathi kweMosco neBeijing kungenzeka kube nomthelela ekuphathweni okusha kwe-US futhi kwenze siguquke kakhulu ezindabeni zezingxoxo zokulawulwa kwezingalo.
Isifiso sikaBeijing sokucela ukusekelwa kweMoscow kuhlotshaniswa nezinkinga ze-American-European Union, okuhloswe ngazo ukunqanda i-PRC. Ikakhulu, uNato uya ngokuya ekhuluma ngokuthuthukiswa kwamasosha aseChina angesongo entuthukweni nasekubeni khona komfelandawonye.
Inselelo Eyinhloko - Ingxoxo Yomphakathi
Inkonzo yakwamanye amazwe amaShayina yaphawula ukuthi okuphambili nge-ajenda ye-niplomatic yaseChina ngo-2021 kuzoqiniswa ngamaqhinga amasu ngeRussia. Kodwa-ke, naphezu kwempumelelo emikhakheni yezepolitiki, ezomnotho nezempi-zobuchwepheshe, eRussia kanye ne-PRC, akunakwenzeka ukusungula inkhulumomphendvulwano yomphakathi. Ezingeni lomphakathi, amaRussia agcina isimo sezindlela ezimbili eChina.
NgoSepthemba 2020, isikhungo se-Levada sanyathelisa imiphumela yocwaningo olukhombisa umbono omabili we-PRC namaShayina amaShayina phakathi kwamaRussia. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umbono ukuthi iChina yi-China yenza umngane osondele kakhulu weRussia, ama-40% abaphendulile ahlanganyela. Ngokusho kwale nkomba, iChina Lags ngemuva kweBelarus kuphela eyathola ama-58%. Ngasikhathi sinye, inkomba eya e-PRC iye ngokuya ngesimo sobudlelwano phakathi kweRussia kanye neNtshonalanga. Ngakho-ke, kuze kube ngu-2014, kungabi ngaphezu kwama-24% amaRussia ayezimisele ukubiza iChina Ally waseRussia. Ezingeni lomuntu siqu, iningi lamaRussia alilungele ubudlelwano obusondelene nabantu abavela eChina. I-10% kuphela yabahlali baseRussia abakulungele ukubona amaShayina phakathi kwezihlobo noma abangane babo. I-16% ayiphikisi amaShayina ukuze abe omakhelwane noma osebenza nabo. Bangaphezu kwengxenye yamaRussia bakhetha ukugcina izakhamizi ze-CNR ebangeni eliphakeme ngokwazo, ekhuluma ngomkhawulo noma ukuvinjelwa okuphelele kokungena kwabo eRussia.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isimo sebhubhane esingazinzile eRussia siyakwazi ukulimaza izifundo zaseRussia ku-PRC. Ngo-2020, iChina yavala umngcele kaninginingi neRussia ukuqinisekisa ukuphepha okukhulu, okuholele ekuphazamisweni kwezinto eziphansi emngceleni, ikakhulukazi ezifundeni zaseMpumalanga Ekude. Ukwenqaba ukwethula kwezinyathelo zokuhlukaniswa eRussia, kanye nokulondolozwa kwesimo esingesihle esingesifo, kungaholela ekwakhiweni kwesithombe esingesihle sezwe eliseShayina. Ngenxa yalokhu, lokhu kungaholela emiphumeleni engemihle emibi yebhizinisi laseRussia eChina.
Ngakho-ke, izingqinamba zokubona komphakathi zihlala zibuthakathaka ubuhlobo beRussia - Chinese.
Ingozi enkulu yesimo esinjalo ukuqoqana ukungqubuzana okungaholela ekuwohlokeni ebudlelwaneni obuphakathi kwengcindezi ngaphansi komphakathi. Ngenxa yalokhu, umsebenzi oyinhloko weMoscow neBeijing ngo-2021 uhlala usebenzela ukuqinisa inkhulumomphendvulwano yomphakathi, ukuze impumelelo yokubambisana itholwe ngokuxhumana kahle kakhulu ayiphenduki abathunywayo bokungathembani komphakathi nobandlululo.
UVladimir Nezhdanov, Master of International Ubudlelwano, Isikhungo Sesazi Sokubhalelwa Amathemba Okuhlanganiswa Kwezifundo