Ungayenza kanjani imali kwi-IPO ezayo eRussia

Anonim

Ingqikithi ye-IPO muva nje eRussia yokuzwa. Lokhu kuxhunywe ngokukhethekile ne-IPO yezinkampani ezinjenge-Ozon (MCX: Ozondr; NASDAQ: Ozon) nokulungisa intengo. Sibuyekeze ukuthi yisiphi indawo yokuhlala kungenzeka eminyakeni embalwa ezayo nokuthi ungathola kanjani.

Sicabangela indawo yokuhlala elandelayo ngokuthakazelisa kakhulu:

  • Uhlelo lwe-AFK (MCX: AFKs) luhlela ukubeka amafa alo amaningi. Ama-mains yiqembu le-segezha, i-medsi ne-steppe. Lokhu kwenza uhlelo lwe-AFK lube impahla ethokozisayo ngenxa yokudalulwa kwenani lezimpahla zenkampani.
  • I-IPO ye-Utoros ingathonya kahle izingcaphuno zeRibbon (MCX: LNTADR) lapho zithuthukisa umlando ngama-synergies phakathi kwezinkampani ezimbili. Kungenzeka futhi ukunakekela amasheya we-Ozon ngenxa yokuthi abatshalizimali bazothatha isinqumo sokufuna ukuthambekela kwe-e-commerce ngokusebenzisa omunye wabaholi bengxenye yawo, eloloosos.
  • Ukunqoba kanye ne-Yandex.Taxi kungahlalisana ngesiphindaphindi esiphakeme kunezinkampani zomama ezithengiswayo, ezingaba yinto yesikhashana eyakhayo ye-Aeroflot (MCX: AFLT) ne-Yandex (MCX: I-YNDX), ngokulandelana.

Lungisa intengo

I-WHO! Izitolo ze-Chain zomndeni wonke ngemikhiqizo ehlukahlukene yasekhaya ngamanani aphansi ahleliwe.

Nini? Mashi 10 2021.

Ezinhlelweni zokubamba i-IPO eLondon Fix Price kubikiwe maphakathi noFebhuwari. Inkampani izosebenzisa nohlu lwesibili ekushintshaniseni kweMoscow. Kwethule inkampani ye-IPO ngo- $ 7- $ 11,5 billion ngemininingwane eminingi ngalokho esikucabanga ngentengo ye-IPO, ungafunda lapha.

Iqembu leSegezha.

I-WHO! Enye yezihlahla eziholayo eziholayo ze-Timber-Industrial enesakhiwo esihlanganiswe ngokuqondile kanye nomjikelezo ophelele wokugcotshwa kanye nokucutshungulwa kwezinkuni ezijulile.

Nini? Unyaka wangaphambi kuka-2021.

I-AFC ebambe uhlelo ibike ngohlelo lwe-Portfolio Company ye-IPO Portfolio Company Segezha Group. Isitatimende sithi i-AFC ilungiselela ukuphuma kwenkampani ekushibeni kwesitoko ngo-2021, kepha kuze kube manje akukho zinqumo ezisemthethweni maqondana ne-IPO ezamukelwa.

Le nkampani ingumholi weRussia nomunye wabaholi bemakethe yokufaka iphepha laseYurophu (52% no-16.5%, ngokulandelana).

Le nkampani igxile ezimakethe zakwamanye amazwe, okuvumela ukuthi ibe nengxenye enkulu yemali engenayo yemali, ama-70%.

Imali engenayo yenkampani yezinyanga eziyi-920 ibize nama-ruble angama-50.2 billion. (+ 14.7% G / G), i-EBITDA yayisezingeni lama-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11,3. (+ 11.0% G / G).

Ungayenza kanjani imali kwi-IPO ezayo eRussia 2666_1
Fig. okukodwa

Ukufinyelela kwenkampani kokushintshaniswa kwesitoko kungaba yi-catalyst ebalulekile yohlelo lwe-AFC Shares olungela-98% yenkampani. Lokhu kuzokwenzeka ngezindleko zokuhlola kwemakethe yenkampani. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuphuma ku-Stock Exchange kusho ukuthi kungenzeka ukuhweba kwamahhala kumasheya, okusho ukuthi kuningi ukwenziwa kwemali. Futhi i-liquidity yenza izimpahla zibaluleke kakhulu futhi zibize kakhulu.

Medsi.

I-WHO! Inethiwekhi yangasese yobukhosi enkulu yezwe yezikhungo zezokwelapha nezivimbelayo ezihlinzeka ngezinsizakalo ezigcwele.

Nini? Unyaka we-Pre-2022.

Enye yezimpahla zephrofayili zohlelo zingaqhuba i-IPO. E-NSEI, i-AFK inama-97% enkampani. Ekuqaleni bekulindeleke ukubanjwa ngo-2021. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yobhubhane, inkampani yanquma ukushintsha isu futhi ifake i-stock exchange ngo-2022, ngokusho komqondisi wemisebenzi yezentengiso kanye nokumaketha i-Medussia Alla Kanunnikova.

Imali engenayo ye-Medisi yengxenye yokuqala yonyaka yawa kuma-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-10,5. (-1.9% G / G), futhi kungekudala. I-EBITDA yehle yaya kuma-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.3. (-9.8% g / g).

Ungayenza kanjani imali kwi-IPO ezayo eRussia 2666_2
Fig. 2.

Njengoba iMedsi futhi uhlelo lwempahla, ukufinyelela kwenkampani kokushintshana kwesitoko kuzoba nomthelela omuhle ekusebenzeni kwe-AFC. I-Catalyst enkulu, kanye nangokwezigaba, izothola ukuhlolwa kwemakethe yenkampani kanye ne-liquidity.

Isinyathelo esibonezilende ngezinye noma

I-WHO! Enye yezinkampani ezinkulu kakhulu zezobulungiswa eRussia.

Nini? Akwaziwa.

I-Steppe ingenye impahla yesistimu ye-AFC kulolu hlu, lapho uhlelo lungu-85%. Ekuqaleni, ukubekwa kwempahla kwakufanele ngo-2019. Ngemuva kwalokho yadluliselwa ku-2020, kepha ngenxa yobhubhane, ukuphuma kwenkampani ekushisweni kwesitoko kwadingeka ukuthi kuphinde kwakhanselwa. Ngokusho kukaVladimir Chirahov, uMongameli kanye noSihlalo weBhodi Yesistimu ye-AFC, inkampani inentshisekelo enkulu phakathi kwabatshalizimali, kubandakanya namazwe omhlaba.

Ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyisishiyagalolunye zika-2020, imali engenayo yenkampani yanda ngo-16.3% y / y kuya kuma-ruble angama-22,3 ama-ruble, futhi i-EBITDA inyuke nge-37.3% ybles.

Ungayenza kanjani imali kwi-IPO ezayo eRussia 2666_3
Fig. 3.

I-steppe ingaba enye impahla ezosiza uhlelo lwe-AFK ukuveza inani layo lemakethe.

Yandex.taxi

I-WHO! Izinsizakalo zetekisi nezokudla okuhlanganisiwe kokudla, kanye nezicelo zeselula kubo.

Nini? Washukumisela isikhathi esingapheli.

Ezinhlelweni zokwenza i-IPO Yandex.Taxi, inkampani yamenyezelwa ekuqaleni kuka-2019. Kodwa-ke, ngemuva kwalokho, ngoNovemba 2020 Yandex wenqabile ukubeka itekisi.

UGreg ABOVSKY, umqondisi osebenzayo nowezezimali we-Yandex, uthe: "Sibona ukuthi ipulatifomu enjalo ye-yandex, esasidala, eba ngcono ngenxa yobuqotho babo. Ngakho-ke, i-IPO yenkonzo yamatekisi ayibhekwanga. "

Endabeni yokubekwa kwe-Yandex.taxi kukhona amathuba aphezulu azoba khona lapho kunesibalo esiphakeme ukwedlula imakethe okwamanje esekwe kumasheya we-yandex. Ngokumelene nalesi sizinda, izingcaphuno ze-yandex zingakhula. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokudluliswa kwe-IPO isikhathi esingapheli, akukufanele ukuyisebenzisa njenge-thesisis yokutshala imali.

IVI.

I-WHO! Umholi wemakethe online ama-cinemas eRussia.

Nini? Washukumisela isikhathi esingapheli.

Umsunguli i-IVI, u-Oleg Tumanov, ukhulume kaninginingi ngokuphuma kwenkampani ekushintshaneni kwesitoko. Ngenxa yalokho, inkampani ibilungiselela ukungena emakethe ekuqaleni kuka-2021: Ekupheleni kukaNovemba 2020, yaziwa ngezinhlelo zokuya eNasdaq.

Lapho-ke ukubekwa kuhlehlisiwe ngenxa yoMthethosivivinywa wePhini lika-Anton Gorelkin emkhawulweni wesabelo sabafokazi online. Ngokomthetho osalungiswa olwenziwe yiPhini ngoDisemba 18, 2020, uma isabelo sabezinye izizwe kumabhayisikobho aku-inthanethi sizodlula ama-20%, khona-ke inkampani ibophekile ukuchaza ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi kube nesakhiwo sayo sobunikazi kwiKhomishini Kahulumeni.

Inkampani ihlala endaweni eholayo emakethe ye-inthanethi ye-inthanethi enokwabelana ngama-23% ezinyangeni ezi-6 20. Ngasikhathi sinye, le nkampani ikhuphule imali esheshayo kuneMakethe Yezinyanga eziyisithupha ka-2020. Ngakho-ke, imali engenayo ye-IVI yanda ngama-58% y / y izinyanga eziyi-6 20, ifinyelela ama-ruble angama-4,3.

Inkampani ingumholi wemakethe futhi ikhombisa ukukhula okuhle. Ngasikhathi sinye, uphumelele ekugcineni izikhundla, ngisho naphezu komncintiswano wama-hempleweights e-OkKo's ebusweni (i-asberbank aster (MCX: I-MCX: I-Sber) kanye nama-Disc amafilimu (I-Yandex Asset). Izikhundla ezinjalo ezinamandla zizokwenza inkampani ibe yimpahla eyamukelwa kakhulu emakethe eyinhloko.

Ukukhishwa kwebhizinisi kwi-IPO kuzonikeza abatshalizimali ithuba lokutshala imali enkampanini eqinile esebenza emakethe yaseRussia. Akunabadlali abaningi kangako manje.

I-Platypus

I-WHO! Umholi wemakethe emkhakheni wokulethwa kokudla kanye nezimpahla ezihlobene ne-e-commerce yaseRussia.

Nini? Azikho izinhlelo ezithile.

Kuze kube ngu-Ephreli 2020, le nkampani ibingumholi ongenamibandela weMakethe Yokulethwa Kwezokudla okuku-inthanethi, kepha lapho-ke ama-WKONOS ashaqekile ngeqembu lesithathu le-X5 Retail Group (MCX: Fiveredr) ne-sbermarket. Amasheya e-Utona, i-X5 ne-Sbermarket angu-10%, 12% no-11%, ngokulandelana.

Ungayenza kanjani imali kwi-IPO ezayo eRussia 2666_4
Fig. okune

I-WKOkos yandisa imali engenayo ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalolunye zokuqala ezingama-2020 kuya kwayi-11.6 billion ama-ruble. (+ 66% G / G) ngokumelene nama-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-7.0. Ezinyangeni eziyi-9 zika-2019. Umqondisi wenkampani wathi ngo-2023 inkampani ingafinyelela ikhefu - ngisho. Noma mhlawumbe ngaphambili.

UMqondisi-Jikelele we-Utonos uthe ngoNovemba 2020 manje le nkampani ayihleleli ukuqhubeka nokushintshana kwesitoko. Esikhathini esizayo, kungaxoxwa ngalo, kepha namuhla azikho izinhlelo ezinjalo.

Ukukhishwa kwenkampani ekushintshisaneni kwesitoko kungaba ngumshayeli omuhle wamasheya eRibbon. Lokhu kuzokwenzeka uma imakethe iyobona le ndaba yebhizinisi elihlangene legazi ne-ribbon. Le ndaba kungenzeka inikezwe ukunakwa okuningi ngesikhathi sokubekwa, ngenxa yama-synergies, angalethwa kuzo zombili izinkampani.

Uma kwenzeka ukuhlanganiswa noma ukuthuthukiswa kwenhlangano ehlanganyelwe (i-venture ehlanganyelwe) phakathi kwe-Ribbon ne-materproof kwenzeka ngaphambi kokubekwa, ukubekwa kwendiza kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu etheyipini. Kuzohlotshaniswa nokudalulwa kwenani lodonga. Ngokwezinga elikhulu, lokhu kuzobangelwa iqiniso lokuthi abathengisi be-inthanethi bathengiswa ngabaphindaphindayo ababizayo kunokujwayelekile.

Futhi, inkampani ingafaka umncintiswano we-Ozon wemali yabatshalizimali. I-Wkonkos isidlali esikhudlwana emakethe yezitolo zokudla, icubungula ama-30% amanye ama-oda ku-Ozon. Kodwa-ke, ngokujwayelekile, u-Ozon ungumdlali omkhulu ngenxa yokungabikho kochwepheshe emakethe efanayo. Ngaphandle kwalokhu, amazinga okukhula asondele (+ 66% g / g ngokumelene + 70% y / y nge-9 izinyanga ezingama-2020 Ozon), kanye nezikhundla zabatshaliswayo, kungadala ukuthi kungani abanye abatshalizimali bazoxazulula amasheya we-UZONOS. Lokhu kuzoholela ekuweni okuncane kwamasheya we-ozon.

Ungayenza kanjani imali kwi-IPO ezayo eRussia 2666_5
Fig. isihlanu

Ukunqoba

I-WHO! Umgibeli omkhulu wendiza eRussia.

Nini? Ukubambezeleka unomphela.

Ngo-2019, i-Aeroflot CEO yathi i-Aeroflot ihlela ukubamba i-IPO ka-25% yenhlokodolobha yokunqoba. Kodwa-ke, kusukela lapho inkampani ishintshe umqondisi jikelele. Muva nje, wenza isitatimende esithi njengamanje ukunqoba kwe-IPO akubhekwanga.

Insini

I-WHO! I-Sibur - inkampani enkulu kunazo zonke ehlanganisiwe yamafutha kanye negesi chemistry yeRussia.

Nini? Akwaziwa.

Amahemuhemu ngokuphuma kwe-sibir ku-IPO kuhlanekezelwe isikhathi eside. USibur wayelungele i-IPO ebuyela ngonyaka we-2018, kepha kusukela ngalesosikhathi isinqumo sokungena kokuthengiselana asizange samukelwa. NgoFebhuwari 2019, iKonov yasho lokho ngemuva kokwethula isitshalo saseZapsefnefTech, kuzoba nezisusa eziningi ze-IPO, nasehlobo lika-2020, kubhekwe isikhathi sokubizelwa okungafanele, kunikezwe isikhathi se-coronavirus.

Ngemuva kokuqokwa kukaPeter O'Brien, umphathi ophambili wangaphambilini waseMorgan Stanley (Nyse: MS), esikhundleni somqondisi wezezimali we-Sibur ngoSepthemba nyakenye, kubonakala sengathi i-IPO yenkampani ayinakugwenywa. NgoSeptemba 2020, inhloko kaSibur Drimry Konov igcizelele ukuthi inkampani ilindele ingxenye enhle yezici ezintathu: Izitatimende zezezimali, isimo sezimakethe - zezimboni kanye nezezimali.

Imali engenayo yenkampani izinyanga eziyi-9 zakwa-2020 zaba ngama-Rubles angama-369.4 billion. (-6.6% y / y), i-EBITDA ifinyelela kuma-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-122.0. (-3.3% G / g).

I-Datville

I-WHO! Izitolo zenethiwekhi zokudla okunempilo.

Nini? Unyaka wangaphambi kuka-2021.

Enye inkampani yaseRussia, ehlela ukungena e-American Stock Exchange, iyiqoqo lezitolo zamasela. Ngokuka-Andrei Krivenko, umsunguli wenkampani, isinqumo sokugcina asikemukelwa, kepha ukubekwa kubhekwa ku-New York nasezitokisini zaseMoscow.

Kuyaqapheleka ukuthi i-thawilla manje iseqophelweni elilandelayo lokuthuthuka kwalo. Okokuqala, ngesikhathi sobhubhane nokuhlukaniswa kwengxenye, inkampani yanda ukuguquka kwe-inthanethi kusuka ku-1% kuya ku-15% futhi kwangena abathengisi abaphezulu abahlanu abahlanu eRussia, kanti imali ebiyelwe i-47% y / y engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020.

Ngasikhathi sinye ngosayizi abaphelele, inkampani igcwele kancane ngemuva komunye umkhiqizi womkhakha wezitolo owenziwe yi-IPO - Intengo yokulungisa. Ngakho-ke, eDvorville, imali engenayo ngonyaka ka-2019 ama-ruble angama-83. ngokumelene nama-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-142.9.

Ungayenza kanjani imali kwi-IPO ezayo eRussia 2666_6
Fig. 6.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkampani njengamanje ingena ngentshiseko izimakethe zaseNtshonalanga: Isitolo sesivele sisebenza eParis, esinye e-Amsterdam, ukuvulwa kwamaphuzu angaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi eYurophu naseChina nakho kuyaxoxwa.

Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi ngo-2019 inkampani yathola ama-ruble ama-3 billion. inzuzo ye-net ngama-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-82,5. Imali engenayo futhi yathumela ama-ruble angama-2 billion. ekukhokhweni kwezabelo. Le nkampani ibisebenza iminyaka engu-5 ingenaminyaka engafanele.

Isomophambili

I-WHO! Izimpahla zesithathu ngobukhulu zebhange langasese eRussia.

Nini? Unyaka wangaphambi kuka-2021.

Inkampani iya e-IPO kusukela ngo-2018. NgoFebhuwari 2020, uReuters wabika ukuthi iSovCombank ilungiselela i-IPO phakathi konyaka futhi isivele ikhethe ama-Goldman Sachs, iJP Morgan noMorgan Stanley njengabahleli bendawo yokuhlala.

Kodwa-ke, le nkinga ivimbele lezi zinhlelo, futhi ngo-Ephreli pekela likasihlalo weBhodi leBhange lebhange lakhuluma nge-IPO: "Lo nyaka - nakanjani, nakancane, lokho, kungahle kube yilapho Isimo lapho ngonyaka olandelayo kungenzeka kube namafasitela e-IPO. "

Inkampani ikhombisa ukukhula okusheshayo kwamabhange omphakathi aseRussia. Ngakho-ke, inani lamakhasimende okuthengisa likhule laba ngamakhasimende ayi-8,1 million ngasekupheleni kwezinyanga eziyi-920 (+ 29% ngoDisemba 31, 2019). Ukudabuka Inzuzo yezinyanga eziyi-9 zokuqala ezingama-2020 zanda ngo-21% y / y futhi zifinyelela kuma-ruble angama-22 ama-ruble, kwathi ngonyaka we-2019 zikhuphuke ngo-70%: kusuka kuma-ruble ayizigidi eziyi-17,5. Kufika kuma-30.1 billion ruble.

Ngokombono wethu, imibono ethakazelisa kakhulu endaweni yokuhlala ezayo yiyona elandelayo:

  • Uhlelo lwe-AFC lungakhombisa ukukhula okuphambili eminyakeni embalwa ezayo ngenxa yokubekwa kwezimpahla zalo eziningi. Abaphambili yi-Segezha Group, iMedsi ne-Steppe.
  • I-IPO ye-Airpoint ingathinta kahle izingcaphuno zeRibbon ekuthuthukisweni komlando onama-synergies phakathi kwezinkampani ezimbili. Kungenzeka futhi ukunakekela amasheya we-Ozon ngenxa yokuthi abatshalizimali bazonquma ukudlala umkhuba we-e-commerce ngomholi wengxenye yawo.

Le ndatshana ibhalwe ngokubambisana ne-Analytics Nikolai Chikvashvili

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