2020 Sikhumbula impela njengonyaka weLokdanunov kanye nokulwa ne-Covion-19, kepha kukhona okunye okufanele ukukunaka ukushisa. Ngonyaka owedlule, amazinga okushisa asondele ku-Record amanani nezindawo zize zidlule ziye zadlula ziye eSouth-West USA. Amarekhodi aqoshiwe afakaza, alos, hhayi cishe amagagasi afudumele wesikhathi esisodwa, kepha mayelana nomkhuba owesabekayo wokukhula okuqhubekayo kwamazinga okushisa emhlabeni jikelele. Inselelo esobala yalokho okwenzekayo ukushintsha isimo sezulu - inqubo eqhubekayo yokufudumala kancane ngenxa yomsebenzi womuntu. Ngeshwa, namuhla i-Carbon Dioxide Emions iyaqhubeka nokukhula, okusho ukuthi umhlaba uzobhekana nalokhu nakanjani amarekhodi amasha kanye neminye imiphumela eyingozi. Kodwa-ke, kuzoshisa kanjani esikhathini esizayo, abacwaningi bakuthola kunzima. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi iqiniso lokuthi ukwanda kokushisa okuzayo emhlabeni kusezingeni elithile kuncike kithi. Sizoqala nini futhi ngokushesha kangakanani ukunciphisa ukuphuma kwemiphumela, sidlala indima enkulu ekuziphendukeleni kokushisa komhlaba.
Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu - okudingeka ukwazi?
Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi isimo sezulu esivela emhlabeni wethu sihlale sishintsha, ushintsho lwamanje lokushisa luhlobene ngqo nomsebenzi womuntu. Njengoba abalobi boMbiko babizwa ngokuthi yi-World of World babeka imiphakathi esimweni esiphuthumayo ", esisayine ososayensi abangaphezu kwenkulungwane abavela emhlabeni wonke ngonyaka we-2019," isimo sezulu sesimo sezulu sesifikile sisheshise ngokushesha kunabaningi ososayensi abalindelwe. Unamandla kakhulu kunalokho obekufanele futhi asongelwa ngemvelo yemvelo kanye nekusasa lesintu. "
Inhloso yombiko, njengoba kuphawulwe ngomunye wababhali bawo engxoxweni neBritish The Guardian, ukufaka isibonakaliso esigcwele sezinkomba "ezibalulekile zezinkomba" ngezinto eziguqukayo ngokushesha, hhayi nje Ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 futhi kwandise izinga lokushisa ngqo ebusweni.
Phakathi kwezinkomba ezithinta ukufudumala komhlaba, ababhali bombiko bakha ukukhula kwezibalo zabantu, ukugawulwa kwamahlathi, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, ukuncishiswa kwamandla, ukuncipha kwezindawo zonyaka, nokulahleka kwezomnotho konyaka kanye nokulahleka kwemicimbi yonyaka okuvela emicimbini yesimo sezulu esibi. Ngakhuluma ngalo mbiko ngalolu mbiko nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kule ndatshana.
Imibhalo ethokozisayo ngokwengeziwe yokuthi isimo sezulu sishintsha kanjani emhlabeni wethu nokuthi sizokwenzanjani ngakho, funda esiteshini sethu ku-yandex.dzen. Kunezinto ezishicilelwe njalo ezishicilelwe ezingekho esizeni!
Yiliphi ikusasa amamodeli wesimo sezulu abikezela?
Uma kukhulunywa ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, uhlelo oluhle kakhulu olubonisa izehlakalo emhlabeni lumelelwa yiqembu le-inhlangano yochwepheshe bezimo zesimo sezulu (IPCC), eliholwa yi-United Nations (UN). I-MGEK ikhipha umbiko ophelele wokufudumeza womhlaba wonke ophathelene kanye ngeshumi leminyaka, futhi lokhu kungenye yemithombo engcono kakhulu yedatha yesimo sezulu nokubikezela.
Umbiko wokugcina ogcwele uphume ngo-2014, futhi okulandelayo kuhlelwe ngo-2022, okungekude kude. Le mibiko isuselwa emsebenzini wamakhulu ama-cliplologists avela emhlabeni wonke futhi ifake imininingwane yesimo sezulu esivuselelwe, kanye nesibikezelo sesikhathi esizayo ngokususelwa kumamodeli wesimo sezulu esiyinkimbinkimbi. Funda kabanzi ngombiko wakamuva we-MGEIK onikezelwe olwandle lomhlaba, ungafunda lapha.
Bheka futhi: Yimaphi amazwe abanamandla kunabanye abahlupheka ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu?
Elinye lamatshe e-Cornerstone lombiko ukuthi abacwaningi babiza "izindlela zokusatshalaliswa kokugxila okuzimele" (RRP, noma RCPS). Lezi yizimo eziningana zezulu ezahlukahlukene ezisuselwa emazingeni ahlukene okuphuma, kusuka kokunethemba, eziphakamisa ukuthi sithatha isinyathelo ngokushesha, ngokwesabisa ngokwengeziwe, sicabange ukuthi angenzi lutho. Njengamanje, abaphenyi base-IPCC bakholelwa ukuthi imiphumela yokufudumala ngamadigri ayi-1.5 Celsius azoba yinhlekelele.
Futhi, ukulondolozwa kokufudumala ngezansi kwelitshe kuzodinga ukuthi umhlaba unamathele kwesinye sezimo ze-RCP ezinethemba, ezibizwa nge-RCP2.6. Lokhu ukufeza inhloso, kepha kuphela uma wonke amazwe esayina isivumelwano sezulu seParis izoqala ukunciphisa ukuphuma kwamagesi abamba ukushisa njengamanje (kahle, kufanele kudingeke ukuthi siqale ngo-2020). Ngokwesimo esisezingeni eliphakathi, esibizwa nge-RCP4.5, ukuphuma kuqale ukwehla ngo-2045. Lokhu kuzovumela ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa aphakathi phakathi kuka-1.5 ° C - 3 ° C degrees.
Uma sehluleka ukufeza noma iyiphi inqubekela phambili ebalulekile ekunciphiseni ukuphuma, bese kuba ngu-2100 emhlabeni kungenzeka kube nokufudumala kwama-3-5 degrees. Le nombolo ivame ukushiwo ezindabeni njengomphumela obonakalayo, yize ezinye zezinyawo zixwayisa ngokuthi kungumkhawulo ophezulu wethuba futhi akunakwenzeka ukuthi kwenzeke.
Kuzothakazelisa kuwe: Kuzoba yini umhlaba ngo-2050, uma ungayeki ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu?
Imiphumela yokushisa komhlaba
Ngokuvamile, abaphenyi bakholelwa ukuthi ngamazinga okushisa angu-2100 emhlabeni azovuka kusuka ku-2.9 kuye ku-3.4 degrees Celsius, kepha amathuba okuthi esikhathini esizayo, ubuntu buzophila kulokhu okuphakathi nendawo futhi kubhekwa kakhulu Isimo esinokwenzeka. Kepha noma ngabe kuphi lapho sizithola khona eminyakeni engama-78, ngokuqinisekile imiphumela izoba khona, akunandaba ukuthi i-thermometer ibonisa ini.
Iplanethi yethu yeplanethi isivele ifudumele cishe ama-degrees ayi-1.5 kusuka ezikhathini zangaphambi kwezimboni, okuyisisekelo esivame kakhulu uma kuziwa ekushiseni komhlaba. Lokhu kuguqulwa kwama-degree angu-1.5 sekuholele eqinisweni lokuthi ileveli yolwandle ikhuphuke cishe ngamasentimitha angama-7.5, futhi izihlangu ezinkulu ze-Ice zilahlekelwa amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1,3 ngonyaka. Lokhu kwephulwa kwezimo zezulu zomhlaba wonke, okuholele eziphethweni ezinkulu kakhulu, isomiso, amagagasi okushisa kanye nezinye izinhlekelele zemvelo. Okunye ukufudumala ngezinga kungaba nemiphumela emibi.
Ososayensi bavele babikezele ukuthi amagagasi wesikhathi esizayo azosongela izigidi zawo izimpilo emhlabeni wonke unyaka nonyaka. Ngokwesibikezelo, ababaleki bezulu basondela ngokunwebeka ikhwetha, okuzobangela ukukhathazeka ngezinkinga zokufuduka emazweni apholile, lapho behamba khona. Amadolobha asogwini, kufaka phakathi iNew York, uMiami, Jakarta, Lagos nabanye, kuzofanela azivumelanise nezimo, futhi ukunyakaza kwabantu kungashintsha kuze kube phakade kwavela abantu base-United States nakwamanye amazwe.
Kuyathakazelisa: Ukushintshwa kwesimo sezulu "kungahle" gazinga "amadolobha ngo-2100
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi izinguquko zokushisa zomhlaba wonke ziyincazelo emaphakathi. Kwezinye izindawo ukufudumala kungabi kakhulu. Vele, akusikho okokuqala ukuthi umhlaba ufudumala. Kuwo wonke umlando weplanethi yethu, kwakukhona amaphuzu amaningi lapho amazinga okushisa (ne-carbon dioxide) ayephakeme khona kunangesikhathi manje. Yini ehlukanisa inkathi yamanje, ngakho-ke lesi yijubane elizoshintshana ngalo. Izinga lokushisa lifudunyezwa kakhulu amakhulu eminyaka, hhayi amashumi noma amakhulu ezinkulungwane.