Ukuchitheka okubukhali kokuqina kwamabhondi wemali e-United States, okwenzeke ngesonto eledlule, kwehlile. Imakethe izama ukuqoqa imicabango yakhe futhi ibuyele esimweni esedlule, kepha kukhona izithiyo. Ezinsukwini ezizayo namasonto, imakethe izolinda ngokuzithandela amasu ezinye izinhlelo zamabhange aphakathi, ukuguquguquka phakathi kwemizwa eyingozi kanye nezinzuzo ze-bond '(zangempela (zangempela).
Isihloko Sokuhweba Kwasekhaya: Ukubhekwa kwezinzwa ngemuva kokulimala nge "Trezeris"
Inkulumo ethi "ukulimala ngeTrezeris" ithathwe ekhanda le-Podcast Saxo Market Call. Kuyo, saxoxa lapho imakethe ifuna khona i-catalyst entsha ngemuva kokushaqeka ngenxa yokugxuma kwesivuno sesivuno samabhondi wemali e-United States (yize kuthule ngaphandle kokuvezwa okwengeziwe kokungasebenzi kahle kwemakethe). Izimakethe zizama ukubuyela lapho zazikhona ngaphambi kwezehlakalo zesonto eledlule, kodwa angingabazi ukuthi lokhu kungenzeka ngokuphelele ngaphandle kokubikezela kwenqubomgomo yezimali kanye nezezimali, ikakhulukazi kwa-Fed.
Ingabe futhi ngokunenzuzo futhi, kodwa ngokuthula, ngaphandle kokushaya imizwa yengozi? Kungenzeka yini emazingeni akhona? Kunzima ukusho, kepha kuze kube manje ukunyakaza kwemakethe kuhamba kancane, i-Fed kungenzeka ingafuni ukufaka amasiginali, yize lulungu loMkhandlu uL. Bractord waphawula izinguquko zakamuva ezimakethe yeTrezeris: "Ngilandela ngokucophelela izehlakalo Imakethe ... ukunaka kwami kwakhangwa yiminyakazo ethile ngesonto eledlule nangejubane labo. "
Ku-Bloomberg I-athikili yashicilelwa lapho imakethe ye-torzing "imfihlakalo yemakethe yama-trillion angama-21" "kubhekwa, kucatshangelwa indima yabo esemqoka esimweni somhlaba jikelele. Umbuzo oyinhloko isifiso kanye nekhono lamabhange aseMelika ukugcina amanani amakhulu wamaphepha wemali. Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka bese kuzobe sekuqhubeka ikakhulukazi, ngoba ivolumu yokukhishwa kwebhondi iphakeme kakhulu kunejubane lamanje lokuthenga kwalo. Akufanele ukhohlwe ukuthi isizathu esizayo sokuwa "iTrezeris" ngeledlule sasifunwa kancane endalini eneminyaka eyisikhombisa. Omunye umbuzo ukuthi ngabe i-Fed izobuyela ekufuneni imali enkulu, ifakwe okwesikhashana ngonyaka owedlule ngenxa yokonga uhlelo lwezezimali kusuka ezinxushunxushweni. Isikhathi sokususwa siphela ekugcineni kwale nyanga, futhi amaSenetors entando yeningi uWarren noBrown bavele babhale isikhalazo ku-Fed nezinye izikhungo ezibuza ukuthi zingandiki. Le ndaba kumele ixazululwe, uma kungenjalo imicimbi emisha yesiphithiphithi ayinakugwenywa, ilandelwe yikhambi lobuchwepheshe, noma izinyathelo zokwethulwa zokuqeda zonke izithiyo ezinqubomgomo zezezimali, ngaphandle kwe-inflation (okungukuthi, ukwenziwa komqondo "kwanamuhla" kanye nokubuswa kwe itimu yezimali). Kamuva ngesonto elizayo sizothola isivivinyo esisha - izindali zamaphepha oMgci Wama-10 no-30.
Ngakho-ke, unikezwe le ngenhla echazwe futhi iqiniso lokuthi isivuno samaphepha aneminyaka engu-10 ubudala okwesikhashana kudlule ama-1.50%, kufanele athathwe ukuthi izimakethe zizothuthumela, zilinde ukuthi inkinga ibuya ngaphambi kokuthi kutholakale ikhambi, noma Noma kunjalo isivuno sizokwazi ukutshala buthule, ngaphandle kokuthumela izimpahla eziyingozi ku-corkscrew. Lokhu kokugcina kungenzeka kuphela ngokukhula okuzinzile kokulindelwe kwamanani okuholela ekukhuleni kwesivuno sezibopho ezinde - okungukuthi, ngokwehla kwembuyiselo yangempela. Ukulinda kungaba nzima kakhulu. Mhlawumbe lesi simo manje selifinyelele ejika, siphethe izimakethe zempahla ephakeme ngokulinganayo kwezwe. Abasekeli bokwehliswa kwe-USD ngeke balimaze ukulinda kuze kube yilapho kucace ukuthi i-Fed ikhulisa umthelela wayo emakethe yemali yomgcinimafa, kanye / noma ukuthi izivuno zangempela e-United States ziwe ngokushesha kunasemhlabeni wonke.
Ezinye izindaba zanamuhla: Ngokusho kwemithombo yeBloomberg e-ECB, ibhange aliboni isidingo esiphuthumayo sokunciphisa ukubuyiselwa kwemali, naphezu kwezitatimende zabamele abamele abameleli bawo ngokuphakamisa kwabo. I-Euro kulezi zindaba iphakanyiswe kancane, futhi ukugcwala koMbuso kwamazwe e-EU kwakuyinto enhle yokuthengisa. Isivuno samabhondi ominyaka ayi-10 eJalimane akhuphuke ngamaphuzu ama-2; Kodwa-ke, kusaqhubeka ne--30 B.P., nangoLwesihlanu, ngaphambi kokusebenza kwe-I. Shnabel, yafinyelela-20 BP.
Ngokuqondene nephawundi le-sterling, namuhla uNgqongqoshe Wezezimali EGreat Britain Sulak uzokwenza umbiko wasentwasahlobo kwisabelomali. Imininingwane eminingi isivele ivuthiwe, futhi kubukeka sengathi isihloko sayo esiyinhloko kuzoba ukwesekwa okuphezulu kwenani labantu nemisebenzi, futhi mayelana nokuqinisa (ukwengeza intela kwebhizinisi, njll.) Kubhalwe phansi ngombono wesikhathi eside.
Ishadi: Ama-Audid and Treasure Sase-US Bonds
Kusuka kugrafu, kungabonakala ukuthi umhlangano we-Aususd othembekile isikhathi eside akazange alimaze ukukhula kwesivuno sikahulumeni kahulumeni wase-US kanye namanye amazwe (aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kukhombisa ukuncipha kwentengo ye- "Trezeris") . Kodwa-ke, ukuqubuka okufanayo kokuguquguquka kokuphepha kwaseMelika kwenzeka ngoLwesine olwedlule, ikakhulukazi uqine ngokweminyaka emi-2 kuya kwengu-7. Ngenxa yalokhu, konke kwaqubuka, kwaqala umnikazi omkhulu, owayeka imibhangqwana enjalo njengo-Audisd - njengoba - ayikho indlela, idola lase-Australia lalingenye yezindlela ezikhula ngokushesha kakhulu zemali ekhulisa. Ukusuka kuleli phuzu kuqhubeke, i-Audid nekusasa eTrezeris kwangena ekuhlolisweni okuhle. Buyela ekungabikho kwayo kungenzeka kuphela uma izivuno e-United States zizokwazi ukukhula kancane, ngaphandle kokubangela izingozi ezintsha. I-Audid Bhain ukuze uhambisane nokuthengisa kufanele kuvalwe ngenhla kwe-0.7900, futhi ubuyela ekunciphiseni - ukuwa ngezansi kuka-0.7700.
Umthombo: IBloomberg.
Imicimbi ebalulekile ebalulekile yekhalenda lezomnotho (isikhathi sayo yonke imicimbi sikhonjiswa yiGreenwich):
- 13:15 - Umbiko we-ADP ngoshintsho ezingeni lokuqashwa e-United States ngoFebhuwari
- 15:00 - I-Business Optimism Index (ISM) ohlelweni lwe-US ngoFebhuwari
- 15:10 - Inkulumo kaL. De GYINDOS kusuka eCB
- 15:30 - Umbiko wamasonto onke woMnyango Wezamandla WaseMelika emikhiqizweni kawoyela kanye nophethiloli ezweni
- 16:00 - Ukusebenza kwe-tenreiro kusuka ebhange laseNgilandi ngamanani enzalo engemihle
- 17:00 - Inkulumo kaR. Bostik kusuka ku-Fed (ilungu lokuvota FOMC)
- 18:00 - Inkulumo ngo-ch. Evens kusuka ku-Fed (ilungu lokuvota FOMC)
- Ngo-19: 00 - Isifinyezo sangase-US sandlepha iziphawula ngesimo sezomnotho samanje ezifundeni
- 19:30 - Inkulumo nge-I. Shnabel kusuka e-ECB
- 20: 15 - Inkulumo ngekhanda lebhange leNew Zealand Reborce A. Orra
- 00:30 - Umbiko we-Akhawunti ye-Australia Trade For January
- 03:25 - Inkulumo kaJ. Kenns kusuka e-Australia Reserve Bank
UJohn Hardy, I-Main Main Study Saxo Bank
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