NgoJanuwari 11, umsunguli weqembu elibusayo uGeorgia Bijina Ivanishvili wamemezela ukuthi umsebenzi wakhe wagcwaliseka, futhi ushiya ngokwezepolitiki. Ngasikhathi sinye, waveza ukuqiniseka ukuthi ukunakekelwa kwakhe bekungeke kwenze buthaka, kepha, kunalokho, bekuzoqinisa iqembu. Ubize impumelelo yakhe enkulu enkundleni yezepolitiki ukunqoba umbuso kaMongameli uMikhail Saakashvili nenhlangano yakhe "enobunye". Nokho, uSaakazvili uqobo ukholelwa ukuthi u-Ivanishvili wahamba e-USA, ngoba waxhasa ngemali umkhankaso wecala elilahlekile uDonald Trump futhi wesaba ukungahloniphi kukahulumeni omusha eWashington. Kuyini ngempela ukusukela e-Ivanishvili kusuka kwezepolitiki nokuthi kuzokushintsha kanjani ukuncishiswa kwezepolitiki kwangaphakathi kweRiphabhulikhi, ikakhulukazi e-Eurasia. Isazi sahlasela umcwaningi oholayo esifundweni samazwe omhlaba waseMgmo waseRussia, umhleli-in Chief ye-analytics magazine yamazwe omhlaba uSergey Markedonov
Sayina ukuhoxa
Ubaba-umsunguli wephathi yephupho laseGeorgia uBidina Ivanishvili umemezele ukunakekelwa kwawo kokugcina kwezepolitiki. Ngokuxhumana nabalingani kanye nezakhamizi ezikanye nabo, wathi: "Phakathi kwazo zonke izifundo zezombusazwe ezikhona namuhla, iqembu elibusayo empeleni lihamba phambili futhi lingaguquki. Ngiyaqiniseka ukuthi iqembu kulaba bantu lizokwazi ukufaka esikhundleni sokulungiselela umsebenzi wami, igunya namakhono. " Isinqumo sokushiya isikhundla sabaholi beqembu elibusayo, muva nje bawina okwesithathu ngokhetho lwePhalamende, u-Ivanishvili aphikisana ngeminyaka yakhe: NgoFebhuwari 18 uzogubha iminyaka engama-65.Kodwa-ke, incazelo enjalo iqukethe imfucumfucu ethile. Kwezepolitiki zeminyaka engama-65 - lokhu kungukuthi uma kungenjalo ubusha, ngakho-ke akusona ukuguga. Izibalo eziningi zombuso ngalesi sikhathi zifinyelela i-Peak ethembekile ukuze ziqale ukusebenzisana. Ngaleso sikhathi, u-Ivanishvili eminyakeni yakhe engama-65 wakwazi ukufeza okuningi njengosomabhizinisi, futhi njengosopolitiki.
Ngemuva kokuthi umfelandawonye we-heterogeneous owakhiwe nguye ngonyaka ka-2012 wanqoba ukhetho lwePhalamende, eshiya inhlangano kazwelonke enobunye eholwa nguMongameli uMikhail Saakashvili ngaleso sikhathi, kodwa futhi waphula kuphela Uhlelo lwakhe lwamandla, kodwa futhi lwadala eyakhe. Ubumbano lwamabutho ezepolitiki adalwe nguye kamuva lwaguqulwa lwaba yiqembu, ngonyaka we-2016 no-2020. yehluliwe ngesikhathi semikhankaso yePhalamende.
Ngo-2013 nango-2018 Osopolitiki babeka phambili noma abasekelwa yiqembu elibusayo baba omongameli. Ngaphandle kokuthi incazelo yalokhu okuthunyelwe eGeorgia yanamuhla incane, ukhetho uqobo kwaze kwaba nesikhathi ezweni lonke, lalinokubaluleka okukhulu. Eqinisweni, baba izivivinyo zohlelo lwe-Ivanishvili, adlula ngempumelelo, yize kungenjalo ngaphandle kwezinkinga ezithile (ikakhulukazi ngonyaka we-2018).
Kodwa-ke, endabeni kaGeorge Marggelashvili, izindlela zezepolitiki zekhanda elikhethiwe lombuso kanti umnikazi wangempela wezwe waphambuka. Kepha uGeorgia angaziqhenya ngesazi sezepolitiki enjalo - njengomongameli ohlelekile wokuphikiswa: Yikho ngqo ukuthi uMargvezashvili ngokwakhe wachaza kanjani iCredo yakhe.
Ngaso sonke isikhathi ngemuva kokuwa kweSoviet Union, eGeorgia ezimele, awekho amandla angenakuthola imiphumela enjalo. Kodwa ingabe ukunakekelwa kwe-Ivanishvili kusuka kwezepolitiki kunokumukelwa kwezepolitiki? Ngabe uhlelo luzodalwa nguye ngaphandle komakhi wazo? Ingabe zikhona ushintsho kwinqubomgomo yakwamanye amazwe kaTbilisi esemthethweni?
Kusuka kokuphikisana nezinduna kanye nabaphathi beqembu
Izimpendulo zemibuzo ephakanyisiwe kungcono ukuqala ngezimpawu zohlelo lwe-Ivanishvili uqobo. Mayelana nomqhudelwano wezepolitiki, i-Georgia, ngokumelene nesizinda sezifundazwe eziningi zangemva kweSoviet, ihluke kakhulu esiqondisweni esihle. Umphumela wokhetho unzima ukubikezela, wonke amagama amaqembu namabhulokhi ezepolitiki kunzima ukuwakhumbula ngaphandle kokuqeqeshwa okukhethekile, lezimanga ngaso sonke isikhathi, imikhankaso yokhetho imvamisa, imikhankaso yokhetho imvamisa ihambisana nemibhikisho yePhalamende. Ngasikhathi sinye, amasistimu wamandla athathe indawo amashumi amathathu eminyaka aqhutshwa ngokwawo ukunyatheliswa okuqhubekayo kobuntu. Ngakho-ke bekukhona ngesikhathi sokubusa okufushane kwe-zviad garsakhuurdia, futhi ngesikhathi sokuhlala isikhathi eside emandleni ka-Eduard Shevardnadze naseSaakashvili. Kodwa-ke, emaphathini aphikisayo, inani lomuntu lo mholi akufanele libukelwe phansi.
Yini entsha yaletha u-Ivanishvili kulesi siko? Waqala indlela yakhe kwezepolitiki ngemuva komsebenzi webhizinisi ophumelelayo. U-Ivanishvili wenze ukuziphendukela kwemvelo okuyinkimbinkimbi kusukela kumholi wokhetho lwangaphambi kokhetho kumnikazi wangempela wezwe. Esigabeni sokuqala, iphupho laseGeorgia (i-Syrorvia's Phopher "SynTaiar" SynMariar "SynMarte" SynMarte "SynMarte" Syndable) Iwina ukhetho ePhalamende. Lokhu kunqoba kwenzeka ngokumelene nesizinda sokuguqulwa komthethosisekelo, okwakhulelwa ngumongameli wangaphambili futhi kuhloswe ngawo ukusatshalaliswa kwamandla phakathi kwezikhungo ezibalulekile. Ngosizo lwale shini kaSaakashvili, ukushiya isikhundla sikaMongameli (Ukuhlala kulesi sikhundla kukhawulelwe kuMthethosisekelo onemithetho emibili), kwahlelwa ukuhola uhulumeni ngomphumela ophumelelayo okhetho lwePhalamende ukuze aqhubeke nokuthola amandla isikhathi eside kunazo zonke.
Kodwa-ke, ngonyaka ka-2012, walahlekelwa ngumkhankaso wokhetho, kanye neKhabhinethi Yezikhonzi yakhiwa ngumphikisi wakhe - Ivanishvili. UGeorgia ungenile ngesikhathi sokubopha lapho ihhovisi likaMongameli nehhovisi likaNdunankulu lihlangana. Phakathi nonyaka, isinyathelo esisha esisha ngesinyathelo ngesinyathelo sidonsela amandla anamandla kuye, sibuyise amajaji, izidumbu zezombusazwe, ubuholi bezakhiwo zamandla ngabasekeli babo. Ngo-2013, isidalwa sakhe uMarggelashvili uzuze ukhetho lukamongameli. Ngakho-ke, zonke izikhungo zombuso okhiye zazilawulwa yi-Ivanishvili, ngemuva kwalokho washiya iposi yobungcweti kuze kube ngu-Meyi 2018, lapho akhethwe nguSihlalo wephupho laseGeorgia, ngenkathi egcina umthelela osemthethweni, ngenkathi egcina umthelela ongekho emthethweni esinqumweni esibalulekile- ukwenza izinqubo. Lolu hlobo lokuphathwa kwezwe lasePost-Soviet Georgia alukaziwa.
I-Crystallization "Amaphupho"
Ngo-2013-2016 I-crystallization yama- "Georgia amaphupho" yenzekile, futhi izikhundla zalo zaqiniswa ngaphakathi ezweni nasezinhlelweni zamazwe aphesheya. Le nyunyana isiphenduke ubumbano okhethwayo obanzi, lapho amabutho ane-heterogeneous aphikisa uSaakashvili, ephathini yeMonolithic. Kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi, ukugxila ezandleni zakhe ukuphelela kwegunya, u-Ivanishvili wathumela wonke amabutho empesheni yabaphikisi.Kakade ngoNovemba 2014, kwavulwa amacala amane obugebengu abhekene noMongameli waseSaakashvili, futhi owayeseduze kwayo (ngaphambili kweNhloko yoMnyango Wezenkolo Yangaphakathi yeVano Merabishvili, Bachan Akhalay, owayehola uMnyango Wezokuvikela Futhi ingaphakathi eminyakeni ehlukene, imeya ye-ex-kaTbilisi Giga Ugulava) yagwetshwa imisho ehlukahlukene. Eduze noSaakashvili Ex-Ministren of Justice Zurab Adeishvili kwamenyezelwa uhlu olufunwa lwamazwe omhlaba.
Ngakho-ke, inhloko yombuso wangaphambili kanye nabanye abahlanganyeli bakhe abaningi bancipha phesheya, noma bangenakolwa. Ngezindlela eziningi, kwakuyimpendulo ezifisweni zabavoti ezazingagculisekile ngokuhlukumezeka kukahulumeni wezwe olahlekile. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukushushiswa okuphelele kwabaholi benhlangano yezwe elihlangene kwakungekho, abaningi babo baqhubeka nemisebenzi yomphakathi. Iqembu lagcina isimo esingahlelekile samandla aphikisayo aphambili wezwe elinokuxhumana okuqinile enkundleni yezwe lonke.
Ngo-2016-2020 I- "Georgia Dream" yaqinisa isikhundla sayo ngokuthatha iningi lesisekelo okhethweni lwePhalamende. Futhi ngasikhathi sinye, kusukela ngo-2018, ukudumazeka komphakathi kweqembu elibusayo kwahlukaniswa ngokucacile. Ngokuya ngokwengeziwe, izenzo ezinkulu zaqala ukwenzeka (iziqongo zazo zawa kulokho okubizwa ngokuthi "ubusuku bakwaGavrilov" ehlobo lika-2019 kanye nesikhathi sesikhathi sika-2019 - ekuqaleni kuka-2020, obekuhlotshaniswa nokungabaza kwe- "amaphupho" ukuguqula UMthethosisekelo otholwe amabutho aphikisayo).
Yiba yilokho njengoba kungenzeka, iqembu likwazile ukukhumbula ubhubhane lokuhlola kanye ne-coronavirus, kanye nezenzo zangaphandle. Akuyona yonke into eWashington naseBrussels eyayikulungele ukwamukela ubukhosi bephupho laseGeorgia enkonzweni yangaphakathi yeGeorgia.
Kodwa-ke, ukucindezela kwabo kwakulula kakhulu ukubekezelela, ngoba kwenqubomgomo yakwamanye amazwe u-Ivanishvili akazange ashintshe izinto eziza kuqala kuMnduntu wakhe futhi aqhubeke nenkambo yokuhlanganiswa kwezakhiwo ze-georgia kuya e-Euro-Atlantic. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngale ndlela, uhulumeni waseGeorgia uzuze impumelelo ethile, njengokusayinwa kwesivumelwano senhlangano ne-European Union kanye nokuthola isimo 'somlingani onamahloni' NATO, yize umbuzo wokungena ngokusemthethweni e-Euro- Izakhiwo ze-Atlantic azithuthuke kakhulu.
Ngasikhathi sinye, uGeorgia ushintshe izinto eziza kuqala e-Ivanishvili, esho lokho okwenziwe ngokwejwayelekile kanye neRussia, kodwa ngaphandle kokukhishwa kwemigqa "ebomvu" (ekhuluma ngesimo se-Abkhazia naseNingizimu ossetia). Inkambo ngokujwayelekile ubudlelwane neRussia yashukunyiswa isidingo sokunqoba izithiyo eGeorgia zibheke ukungena kweNato, ukukhathazeka okuqondiswa ukungezwani endleleni yaseRussia kungavala lo mbono.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yokujwayelekile ubudlelwane neRussia, imikhawulo yezimpahla zaseGeorgia emakethe yaseRussia yasuswa. Kwangicindezela ukukhula komnotho eGeorgia futhi kwaqinisa ukuthandwa kweqembu elibusayo. Kuhlala nje ukuzisola ukuthi lo mkhuba waphazanyiswa ngonyaka we-2019, kepha "ubusuku obudumile baseGavrilov" kuphela bagcizelele ukuba sengozini yokujwayelekile kwe-radivis ekhawulelwe yesenzo. Imicimbi elandelayo ikhombisile ukuthi i-Ivanishvili, njengabaphikisi bakhe, ayilungele ukuphikisana okufundisayo kwezepolitiki ngeMoscow ngaphandle kwezidingo zokubuyiselwa kwe-Abkhazia naseNingizimu ossetia.
Abaholi abasha nobuso obudala?
Ngokunokwenzeka, iqembu elibusayo, elithatha iningi ePhalamende ngemuva kokhetho olulandelayo ngo-2020, lizoholwa yi-Irakli Kobahidze eneminyaka engama-42. Wayazi okuhlangenwe nakho okucatshangelwe: NgoNovemba 2016 - Juni 2019. Wayeyisikhulumi sePhalamende Likazwelonke laseGeorgia. Nguyena owayebhekwa njengentandokazi ye-Ivanishvili, ehlala ngemuva ngokumelene nesizinda semibhikisho ye-mass esebenza ngokusebenza ngemuva kokwenziwa kwe- "ebusuku eGavrilov", ukuze ubuyise isikhundla esedlule ngesikhathi esikahle.
Kubukeka sengathi isikhathi uKobahidze usufikile. Kepha zimbi kangakanani inhloso ka-Ivanishvili ukushiya ezombusazwe zaseGeorgia? Imibuzo enjalo ayibukeki. Iqiniso ngukuthi wathembisa umholi wakhe ophikisayo ekuhlukaniseni kwakhe kuSaakashvili: "Ngemuva kweminyaka embalwa ngishiya ezombusazwe, futhi uma ngibuya, bese ngibuya kuphela njengomphikisi."
Futhi ngempela: NgoNovemba 2013, ngonyaka olandelayo ukuthatha amandla, u-Ivanishvili washiya izwe lezombusazwe lase-Olimpiki. Ushiye eposini likaNdunankulu futhi ngokusemthethweni akazange ahlale ezikhundleni ezisemthethweni, yize engazange abe ngumphikisi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, wathonya zonke izixazululo ezibalulekile ezenziwe yiKhabhinethi kanye ne-Plalland Govelity.
NgoMeyi 2018, uMdali wephupho laseGeorgia waqokwa ngusihlalo wawo futhi osuvele kulo mkhuba, ukhetho lukamongameli, kanye nomkhankaso wePhalamende, ophethwe ngokunqoba kwabamele iphathi kahulumeni futhi futhi wagatshelwa. Ngakho-ke, izisekelo zokunakekelwa kanye nokubuya kwe-Ivanishvili zibe kwezepolitiki sezivele zenzekile. Futhi akulona iqiniso lokuthi ngehora elithi "X" ngeke athathe isinqumo sokukhanya akhanya futhi ngandlela thile ukujoyina incazelo yamathemba aseGeorgia.
Umbuzo ofanele: Kungani umsunguli weqembu elibusayo athathe isinqumo sokushiya "lapha nangom? Ngokusobala, imiphumela yokhetho lwephalamende, naphezu kwempumelelo yamaphupho "amaGeorgia", azange avunyelwe ukungqubuzana kokubumba phakathi kweziphathimandla kanye nokuphikiswa, okunqume i-ajenda yangaphakathi yezepolitiki yale minyaka emibili edlule.
Ukuphikiswa, naphezu kokungaboni ngaso linye phakathi kwabaholi bawo, kungenye ekwenqatshelwe ukuthuthukiswa okusha kwePhalamende. Kunomzamo wokwethula ukunakekelwa kwe-marat njengesibuyekezo, ukuphakanyiswa "kwabantu abasha". Yize nge-kobahidze isingathekiso esinjalo sibukeka singabaza.
Ukwazi ukufutheka kuka-Ivanishvili, kunzima ukukuveza njengombusi - wenqatshwa. Ngokunokwenzeka, umphumela we-hood ekwenzeni izinqumo uzoqhubeka, kepha ngeke aqine kangako. Ngakho-ke, amandla nangaphakathi ezweni, futhi enkundleni yangaphandle kufuna ukuhambisa iphrojekthi ethile yokuvuselela ukukhulula isimo. Izingxoxo ezinamaqembu aphikisayo abenqaba ukwenza amaphini ezihlalo futhi bathi amanga wemiphumela yokuvota, kodwa amandla awenziwa umqhele ngempumelelo, kodwa amandla awenzi umqhele ukubaqeda, kunalokho, alungele ukuqhubeka. Kulokhu, ukunakekelwa kwe-Ivanishvili kungenzeka ukuthi kumelwe njengokuyekethisa. Futhi kungenzeka kube nomphumela othile, okungenani ubuhlakani. Kepha isu liyimpahla enqabile hhayi eGeorgia kuphela, kodwa futhi nasendaweni yonke yeSoviet iyonke.
USergey Markedonov, umcwaningi oholayo weSikhungo Sezifundo Zakwamanye Amazwe aseMgumo wakwamanye amazwe aseRussia, umhleli oyinhloko we-International Analytics Magazine